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MiB: Michael Lewis on ‘Who is Government’

The Big Picture

This week, I speak with author and financial journalist Michael Lewis. Michael has written countless New York Times bestsellers including Flash Boys and Going Infinite. His book The Big Short was turned into an Oscar-winning film, alongside his Oscar-nominated books-turned films The Blind Side and Moneyball. We breakdown the ins and outs of government and his latest book “ Who is Government: The Untold Story of Public Service.” A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesd

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Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its National Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.18% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in February. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 3.4% in February, down from up 3.6% YoY in January.

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Government Spending Is Out of Control! LOL

The Big Picture

Calculation: BEA Table 3.1 Line 20 (Current Expenditures) divided by Table 1.1.5 Line 1 (GDP). Alternatively, Item #2 below divided by GDP. “ If you torture data long enough, it will confess to anything. ” – Ronald Coase Hey, it’s @TBPInvictus. Let’s delve into a case in point of Coase’s theorem: If you wanted to peddle the narrative that government spending is out of control, you might present a chart like the one above, which is an exact replica of a chart t

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Personal Income increased 0.8% in February; Spending increased 0.4%

Calculated Risk

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $194.7 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in February , according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)personal income less personal current taxesincreased $191.6 billion (0.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $87.8 billion (0.4 percent).

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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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Adviser links: knocking down the doors

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Michael Kitces talks with AJ Ayers, co-founder of Brooklyn Fi, about building a remote firm focused on equity comp. (kitces.com) Brendan Frazier talks with Kathleen Burns Kingsbury, of KBK Wealth Connection and author of Breaking Money Silence. (podcasts.apple.com) Bogumil Baranowski talks family money dynamics with Emily Bouchrad, founder of Blended Families Flourishing and Bouchard Bespoke Consulting.

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Simplicity Wins, at a Cost

Wealth Management

How complexity skews risk decisions.

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Q4 GDP Growth Revised up to 2.4% Annual Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

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Monday links: staring at screens

Abnormal Returns

Crypto Strategy ($MSTR) now owns more than 500,000 Bitcoin. (theblock.co) Tornado Cash is used by cybercriminals. The U.S. has removed sanctions on it. (axios.com) How Solana became synonymous with memecoins. (msn.com) Global America's allies are rethinking their purchase of U.S. arms systems. (wapo.st) Members of the administration are using Signal to coordinate military actions.

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Locking the Door Against Cyber Criminals

Wealth Management

One of the most important functions of wealth managers is protecting financial data.

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From New-Hire To Confident Advisor: Structuring A First-Year Associate Advisor Onboarding Plan To Develop Technical And Client Skills

Nerd's Eye View

Almost anyone who has onboarded new employees will attest to the inherent balancing act it requires. New advisory firm employees need to learn ‘just a few' things: who their teammates are and how to work productively with them, who the firm serves, what makes the clientele unique, and how to navigate the daily operations and long-term goals of the firm.

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Are Robots Replacing You? Keeping Humans in the Loop in Automated Environments

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R

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Are Tariffs a New US VAT Tax?

The Big Picture

A quick note on tariffs : Over the past few weeks, I’ve been putting together my quarterly call for clients. The challenge is how to frame the current economic scenario in a way that is useful and informative and not the usual run-of-the-mill noise. Its easy to get distracted by the chaos of random policies that have been coming rapid-fire at Americans.

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Wednesday links: new and interesting

Abnormal Returns

Crypto Fidelity Investments is planning to launch its own stablecoin. (ft.com) Gamestop ($GME) has joined the Bitcoin balance sheet trend. (sherwood.news) Private equity Private equity will not rest until they have access to your 401(k) account. (bloomberg.com) McKinsey & Co. with their 2025 report on private equity performance. (mckinsey.com) ETFs Buffer ETFs are no great innovation.

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Fifteen Creative Client Events for Financial Advisors

Wealth Management

Smaller, more intentional gatherings financial advisors hold with clients create opportunities for conversations, introductions and growth.

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The Wealth Effect

A Wealth of Common Sense

The Economist has a good piece about the growing importance of the stock market on household balance sheets. Here’s the chart that matters: By the end of 2024, Americans owned stocks worth 170% of disposable income which is back at record levels and much higher than in previous decades. The worry here is that a sustained drop in stock prices could eventually have an impact on the real economy.

Economy 101
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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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Debunking Investment BS!

The Big Picture

Fun chatting with Meb! Todays guest is Barry Ritholtz, Chairman, and CIO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, which manages over $5.7 billion for 3,900 families. His latest book, How Not to Invest, offers a blueprint to help you make better decisions and achieve financial success. In todays episode, Barry & I discuss the pitfalls of relying on experts for investment advice, the dangers of panic selling, the allure of following investment gurus, and the value of meaningful experiences over materia

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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.4% below 2022 peak

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the January Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 78% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 12% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).

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Adviser links: compassionate objectivity

Abnormal Returns

AI Advisers are warming to AI. (thinkadvisor.com) How AI startup FINNY came to be. (riabiz.com) Zocks, which is focused on advisor-client meetings, raised a Series A. (citywire.com) What would an agentic AI solution look like for a financial advisor? (advisorperspectives.com) Ranking the adviser AI note taking apps. (kitces.com) Aging Older Americans have a bad sense of the risk of long-term care costs.

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Robinhood Takes a Shot at Advisors

Wealth Management

Despite the platforms boasts, what it is launching is not any different than other custodians, and advisors shouldnt be threatened, industry observers say.

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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When Will Housing Prices Fall?

A Wealth of Common Sense

We also answered questions about the difference between a portfolio and a plan, personal finance advice for someone who lost their job, when to go from DIY to an advisor and how to get out of your illiquid investments. Further Reading: Timing the Housing Market: When Should You Sell? 1The S&P 500 has experienced 16 down years in that same time frame but far more corrections along the way. 2A few years ago that condo.

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Infinite Loops: Make Fewer Errors, Make More Money

The Big Picture

I had a great time talking with my old buddy, Jim O’Shaughnessy, about market history and where investors go awry.Jim and I go way back, and we discuss how people make bad decisions and why… Transcript here Source : Make Fewer Errors, Make More Money (Ep. 261) My conversation with Barry Ritholtz, Jim O’Shaughnessy Infinite Loops, March 27, 2025 XZXXXX The post Infinite Loops: Make Fewer Errors, Make More Money appeared first on The Big Picture.

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FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFAs National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV) from the FHFAs National Mortgage Database through Q4 2024 (just released).

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Friday links: public market leftovers

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Leveraged and inverse ETFs can help magnify your mistakes. (wsj.com) Are public markets now a dumping ground for marginal companies? (on.ft.com) Fraud Nikola founder Trevor Milton, whose attorney is the brother of the attorney general, just received a pardon for securities fraud. (wsj.com) Easier rules on crypto, means easier money laundering.

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The Future Of Finance: How To Manage Spend The Right Way

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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Record Keeper Technology Stymieing the 401(k) Industry

Wealth Management

John Hancock rebrands to Manulife John Hancock and launches a new platform, Future Choice.

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How do you stay in business when people buy financial products online?

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Antoinette Tuscano, MDRT senior content specialist Throughout the world, people can bypass a financial advisor and go online to buy life insurance. In some Asian countries, this reality seems particularly alarming since the life insurance market is near the saturation point. The urgent question then becomes, Who will I sell to if people go online and buy it themselves?

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Navigating the AI Revolution: What Financial Advisors Need to Know

XY Planning Network

If Im being honest, when AI first came onto the scene, I felt overwhelmed by it, so I used it very sparingly. Last September, I attended Hubspots annual conference, INBOUND. The overwhelming message throughout the event was that AI is the future (and the now), and we must embrace it. When used correctly, AI makes us better and more productive at what we do.

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Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook

Calculated Risk

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook Excerpt: I started the year taking Fed Chair Jerome Powells approach to the impact of policy: Id wait to see what was implemented before changing my outlook. Now we know a little more. Although there is still significant uncertainty, it appears that tariffs will stay (and likely increase in early April).

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Podcast links: hidden risks

Abnormal Returns

Listening Peter Kafka talks the business of podcasting with PJ Vogt of Search Engine fame. (podcasts.apple.com) Nilay Patel talks AI and music with Kakul Srivastava, CEO of music creation platform Splice. (theverge.com) Business David Rosenthal and Benjamin Gilbert take a deep dive into the Indian Premier Cricket League. (acquired.fm) David Senra discusses lessons from Raising Crane's Founder Todd Graves.

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Why RIAs are Giving Synthetic Equity a Hard Look

Wealth Management

First-generation RIA owners like those at CGN Advisors increasingly use synthetic or phantom equity structures to give employees access to a firms growth while deferring actual ownership.

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Strategy of the Week: The Peter Lynch P/E/Growth Investor Model

Validea

Valideas Strategy of the Week series highlights time-tested investment strategies based on the insights of legendary investors. This week, we turn our focus to a Wall Street icon whose common-sense philosophy and astonishing long-term track record continue to resonate with investors of all levels Peter Lynch. The Legend Behind the Strategy Peter Lynch may be the most successful mutual fund manager of all time.

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10 Charts To Help Address Client Concerns On Recession Fears, Tariff Risks, And Market Volatility

Nerd's Eye View

While financial markets tend to rise in the long run, short-term volatility can be alarming for investors. Recent swings have been driven by economic policy shifts, persistent inflation concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty – all of which may unnerve even the steadiest of clients. During turbulent periods like these, advisors play a critical role in helping clients maintain perspective and stay grounded.

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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.