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Moody's: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High A brief excerpt: From Moodys Analytics Economists: Q1 Moodys CRE Preliminary Trend Analysis The national multifamily market has been under supply-side pressure over the past two years. Steady demand finally paused the vacancy climb after a banner year with record-level inventory growth.

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Friday links: undermining American strengths

Abnormal Returns

Markets Earnings estimates have plenty of room to come down. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) It looks like we will have two 5-sigma daily moves in a row. (priceactionlab.com) Investors are trying to hide out in consumer staples. (ft.com) Strategy Don't do anything you might regret during a period of market stress. (wsj.com) The chances of you making a good decision under stress are slim.

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Are Tariffs a New US VAT Tax?

The Big Picture

A quick note on tariffs : Over the past few weeks, I’ve been putting together my quarterly call for clients. The challenge is how to frame the current economic scenario in a way that is useful and informative and not the usual run-of-the-mill noise. Its easy to get distracted by the chaos of random policies that have been coming rapid-fire at Americans.

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Helping Clients Grasp Abstract Retirement Income Strategies With Historical Market Visualization

Nerd's Eye View

For many financial advisors, a core part of the retirement planning process involves simulating whether the client's assets will last through retirement. Traditionally, these simulations take the form of either Monte Carlo analyses – showing the percentage of simulated outcomes in which the client finishes with assets remaining – or stress tests that assess plan durability under a handful of adverse scenarios.

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Data Talks, CFOs Listen: Why Analytics Is The Key To Better Spend Management

Speaker: Claire Grosjean

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

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The Middle Class, The Top 10% and the Bottom 50%

A Wealth of Common Sense

Here’s a crazy stat from Bloomberg: Half of American households account for 97.5% of the wealth in this country. This is the breakdown from Federal Reserve data: On the one hand these numbers — 2.5% of wealth — seem almost impossible for the bottom 50%. On the other hand, this is an improvement from the last decade. It was much worse coming out of the Great Financial Crisis.

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MiB: Michael Lewis on ‘Who is Government’

The Big Picture

This week, I speak with author and financial journalist Michael Lewis. Michael has written countless New York Times bestsellers including Flash Boys and Going Infinite. His book The Big Short was turned into an Oscar-winning film, alongside his Oscar-nominated books-turned films The Blind Side and Moneyball. We breakdown the ins and outs of government and his latest book “ Who is Government: The Untold Story of Public Service.” A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesd

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Podcast links: better aging

Abnormal Returns

Money management Shane Parrish talks with Brookfield CEO Bruce Flatt. (fs.blog) Barry Ritholtz talks with Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer at Morgan Stanley. (bloomberg.com) Meb Faber talks with Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer of UBS Global Wealth Management. (podcasts.apple.com) David Senra looks for lessons in the rise of Ken Griffin, founder of Citadel.

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Fifteen Creative Client Events for Financial Advisors

Wealth Management

Smaller, more intentional gatherings financial advisors hold with clients create opportunities for conversations, introductions and growth.

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The Wealth Effect

A Wealth of Common Sense

The Economist has a good piece about the growing importance of the stock market on household balance sheets. Here’s the chart that matters: By the end of 2024, Americans owned stocks worth 170% of disposable income which is back at record levels and much higher than in previous decades. The worry here is that a sustained drop in stock prices could eventually have an impact on the real economy.

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MiB: Lisa Shalett, CIO Morgan Stanley

The Big Picture

This week, I speak with with Lisa Shalett , Chief Investment Officer and head of Global Investment Office for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Previously, she was CEO and chairman at Sanford Bernstein, CIO at Merrill Lynch Asset Management, and now CIO at both Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and runs their asset allocation models and their outsourced chief investment officer models.

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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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Personal Income increased 0.8% in February; Spending increased 0.4%

Calculated Risk

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $194.7 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in February , according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)personal income less personal current taxesincreased $191.6 billion (0.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $87.8 billion (0.4 percent).

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Adviser links: knocking down the doors

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Michael Kitces talks with AJ Ayers, co-founder of Brooklyn Fi, about building a remote firm focused on equity comp. (kitces.com) Brendan Frazier talks with Kathleen Burns Kingsbury, of KBK Wealth Connection and author of Breaking Money Silence. (podcasts.apple.com) Bogumil Baranowski talks family money dynamics with Emily Bouchrad, founder of Blended Families Flourishing and Bouchard Bespoke Consulting.

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Robinhood Takes a Shot at Advisors

Wealth Management

Despite the platforms boasts, what it is launching is not any different than other custodians, and advisors shouldnt be threatened, industry observers say.

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The Tailwind of An Aging Installed Base – HVAC

Fortune Financial

A recurrent theme here has been the opportunity provided by a large installed base, but that is aged and entering the prime years for repair if not replacement. For example, in 2023, we discussed how an older car fleet would provide a long tailwind for auto parts retailers. More recently, we discussed the opportunity present in our nation’s old housing stock.

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Are Robots Replacing You? Keeping Humans in the Loop in Automated Environments

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R

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An Evening with Michael Lewis (April 7)

The Big Picture

Take a break from the sell-off and plan a fun night for this Monday. Join me on April 7th, 2025 at 7:30 pm for a special evening featuring New York Times bestselling author Michael Lewis, at Landmark Theater in Port Washington. We will be discussing his latest book, plus all of his prior best sellers and films. A Q&A will follow.Everybody who comes gets a signed copy of the new book.

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Comments on March Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations, however, January and February payrolls were revised down by 48,000 combined. The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%. Earlier: March Employment Report: 228 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging

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Personal finance links: portfolio contortions

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Cameron Passmore and Benjamin Felix talk lifecycle investing with Professor Scott Cederburg. (rationalreminder.libsyn.com) Bogumil Baranowski talks with Alex Morris author of "Buffett and Munger Unscripted." (podcasts.apple.com) Dan Haylett talks purpose in retirement with David Marlow, author of "The Ikagi Way" (humansvsretirement.com) Housing What is the best case for housing affordability?

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The AI-Powered Advisor and the Future of Advice

Wealth Management

AI will not replace advisors, but it may drive out those who dont leverage it, according to fintech executives at RIA Edge in Nashville.

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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Boost Your Financial Advisory Practice: SEO Strategies and CRM Optimization for Sales Success

XY Planning Network

Search is indeed evolving. More and more potential RIA clients are turning to ChatGPT for quick, consolidated answersand I dont blame them. Why sift through keyword-stuffed blogs when you can get a direct answer curated from across the web? AI is improving the end-user experience, and we, as an industry, need to adapt. The key? Deliver more value.

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US Value Stocks Trading at Historically High Discounts

Alpha Architect

For equity investors there have been two major narratives over the last 17 calendar year period 2008-2024. The first is that US stocks have far outperformed international stocks. The other narrative has been the outperformance of growth stocks relative to value stocks. US Value Stocks Trading at Historically High Discounts was originally published at Alpha Architect.

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Construction Spending Increased 0.7% in February

Calculated Risk

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during February 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,195.8 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised January estimate of $2,179.9 billion. The February figure is 2.9 percent above the February 2024 estimate of $2,133.8 billion. emphasis added Both private and public spending increased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,686.4 billi

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Tuesday links: economic confidence

Abnormal Returns

March 2025 The S&P 500 returned -5.63% in March 2025. (on.spdji.com) How major asset classes performed in March 2025. (capitalspectator.com) The asset asset quilt updated for Q1 performance. (novelinvestor.com) Alternatives How to use private equity in your portfolio. (morningstar.com) Is the Yale Model dead? (ft.com) Companies OpenAI was recently valued at $300 billion.

Economics 147
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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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Unlocking Organic Growth: Experts Share Advisor Strategies from T3

Wealth Management

At the 2024 T3 Conference, top wealthtech leaders shared one key piece of advice for advisors looking to unlock organic growth.

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Tax Advisor Weekly – April 4, 2025

Harness Wealth

This weeks Tax Advisor Weekly covers key updates for financial professionals. We begin with guidance on navigating property tax considerations during business mergers and expansions. Next, we explore the growing need for C-suite awareness of transfer pricing implications. We also break down the latest developments in Beneficial Ownership Information (BOI) reportingwhile requirements have been temporarily lifted for domestic entities, foreign companies remain affected.

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March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2025

Dear Mr. Market

Dear Mr. Market: This is perhaps one of our favorite articles and times of the year; not necessarily because of basketball but rather it allows us the opprtunity to articulate our main investment themes we see playing out for the remainder of the year. My Portfolio Guide, LLC was the first investment firm to publish a March Madness investing bracket where we share our picks and match them up against each other.

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March Employment Report: 228 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment also increased in retail trade, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike.

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The Future Of Finance: How To Manage Spend The Right Way

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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Research links: a marketing success

Abnormal Returns

Rates Why the Treasury bond market matters. (econofact.org) How increased bond indexing has changed how bonds trade. (papers.ssrn.com) Why term premia models disagree. (ft.com) Research Don't pay alpha fees for beta exposure. (aqr.com) Where stock market returns have come from. (marginalrevolution.com) Why is the real price of gold rising? (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Checking in on spot Bitcoin ETFs one year in.

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Why RIAs are Giving Synthetic Equity a Hard Look

Wealth Management

First-generation RIA owners like those at CGN Advisors increasingly use synthetic or phantom equity structures to give employees access to a firms growth while deferring actual ownership.

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Why Use Two Funds When You Can Use 18 Instead?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

In the last few days, I've had the opportunity to look at a couple of different model portfolios from different places and providers that I would describe as being overly complex. I'm not going to call them out publicly or anything but I think we can learn some things. As you can see, there are 18 ETFs in the model and it outperformed by a hair, nothing wrong with that, but it clearly looks identical to the basic two index fund portfolio I used.

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Can AI replace wealth managers?

Truemind Capital

Recently, I engaged with an AI team of experts to help them build AI-enabled software products for wealthmanagement firms. When I was approached for suggestions, I was intrigued by what AI could do to wealthmanagement. It helped me learn about the possibilities of AI use in wealth management. Many wealth management outfitsin the US have started using AI in their operations and basic level of advice.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.