Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 21, 2025

ofdollarsanddata.com) The Russell 2000 is not a great index. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Hedge fund fees have historically taken up nearly 50% of gains. institutionalinvestor.com) Research How do the three big arguments against passive investing hold up? scheplick.com) Quality value stocks perform well in the wake of an inflation shock.

Investing 162

Investing Investments 162

Calculated Risk

MARCH 11, 2025

This series started in December 2000. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Numbers 165

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 165

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 28, 2025

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). With New York leading the nation for the seventh consecutive month and U.S. banks reporting strong Q4 earnings, this could set the Big Apple up as we close out the year. in November (SA).

Banking 235

Banking Assets Marketing Marketing 235

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 17, 2022

Mortgage application activity was lower last week, with overall applications declining over two percent to their lowest level since 2000. The refinance index, however, fell five percent to its lowest level since November 2000 , driven by a six percent drop in conventional refinance applications.”

Economy 348

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 348

Calculated Risk

MARCH 2, 2025

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and is lower than the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue). Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

147

147

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 2, 2025

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue). The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

165

165

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 20, 2025

on.ft.com) The Irish Pub Company has designed some 2000 pubs around the globe. (wsj.com) Business Why other hotel operators are jealous of the Extended Stay America business model. skift.com) Does the Olympics business model still work?

Insurance 130

Insurance Banking 130

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 19, 2025

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 427,000 in January. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased month-over-month in January. Multi-family starts were up 2.2% year-over-year.

162

162

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 7, 2024

abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Two stocks accounted for a third of the Russell 2000's 5.2% Also on the site Better investors make fewer decisions. return in Q1. wsj.com) How major asset classes performed in March 2024. capitalspectator.com) How to choose among total stock market ETFs.

Assets 305

Assets Accounting Investing Investments 305

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2024

The following graph shows the year-over-year change through September 2024, in the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for "September" is a 3-month average of July, August and September closing prices.

Economics 147

Economics Sales 147

Calculated Risk

MAY 24, 2024

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year, and slightly above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue). Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

305

305

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 29, 2024

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). With stronger gains in the Northeast and West than the South, blue states have outperformed red states dating back to July 2023.” emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. in August (SA).

Assets 189

Assets Marketing Marketing 189

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 29, 2024

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue) - and will likely finish mostly unchanged year-over-year. The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy.

162

162

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 20, 2024

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and is close to the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue). Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

298

298

The Big Picture

JUNE 30, 2023

1 As of this moment, the indices stand appreciably higher than where they were on January 1, 2023: The NASDAQ 100 is up >38%, the S&P 500 is up ~15.5%, and the Russell 2000 small cap index is up almost 7%. Because almost nobody saw this rally coming. These numbers would make for a respectable year much less half that time.

Numbers 325

Numbers Investing Investments Management 325

Calculated Risk

MAY 2, 2023

This series started in December 2000. Within separations, quits (3.9 million) changed little, while layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) increased. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Numbers 361

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 361

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 7, 2025

This streak survived the annual benchmark revision.

Numbers 179

Numbers Economics 179

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2023

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Continues to Trend Upward in August Click on graph for larger image. The Composite 10 index is up 1.0%

335

335

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 4, 2023

This series started in December 2000. Within separations, quits (4.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.4 million) changed little. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Numbers 356

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 356

Calculated Risk

JUNE 4, 2024

This series started in December 2000. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) changed little. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Numbers 331

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 331

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 27, 2023

percent, the highest rate since December 2000, and the 30-year fixed jumbo mortgage rate increased to 7.34 percent, the highest level since December 2000 , from 7.31 “Mortgage rates moved to their highest levels in over 20 years as Treasury yields increased late last week. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 7.41

Accounting 307

Accounting Sales Marketing Marketing 307

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

This series started in December 2000. Within separations, quits (4.1 million) changed little and layoffs and discharges (1.3 million) edged down. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Numbers 354

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 354

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 26, 2024

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). The South region reported its slowest growth in over a year, rising 2.8%, barely above current inflation levels.” emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. in September (SA).

Assets 162

Assets 162

Calculated Risk

APRIL 12, 2024

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year, and also at the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue). The red line is for 2024, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy.

283

283

Calculated Risk

MARCH 8, 2023

This series started in December 2000. Within separations, quits (3.9 million) decreased, while layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) increased. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Numbers 349

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 349

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 8, 2024

2000=100) from the revised June reading of 200.5. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Expands Another 8% in July The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 7.9% in July to 216.3 Over the month, commercial planning increased 6.8% and institutional planning expanded 11.1%.

Healthcare 331

Healthcare Planning Retail Economics 331

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 25, 2024

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue). The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

281

281

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 1, 2023

This graph shows the strip mall vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 2000 the data is annual). The regional mall data starts in 2000. For strip malls, the vacancy rate peaked during the pandemic at 10.6% in both Q1 and Q2 2021. Back in the '80s, there was overbuilding in the mall sector even as the vacancy rate was rising.

Retail 363

Retail Assets Investing Investments 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2024

Here is a table showing single and multi-family housing starts and new home sales since 2000. How much will RI change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025? Note that single family starts, and new home sales declined sharply for several years following the housing bubble.

Sales 147

Sales Investing Investments Commission 147

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

Job Streak Through February 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 50 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).

Numbers 147

Numbers Economics 147

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 9, 2022

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Advances In November The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 3.8% (2000=100) in November to 207.2 from the revised October reading of 199.6.

Healthcare 358

Healthcare Education Planning Government 358

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. The 2000 crash was the worst of all of these: The Nasdaq plummeted 81% from peak to trough. My economic future was uncertain, but I felt confident I could make a go of it.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 3, 2024

This series started in December 2000. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) increased, but layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Numbers 147

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2022

This series started in December 2000. Within separations, quits (4.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) were little changed. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Numbers 335

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 335

The Big Picture

MAY 6, 2024

It’s taken me months to organize all of my research for my next book project; it’s a lot of stuff, some dating back to 2000. The mean forecast for the 25 years through 2000 was for 13% annual stock market returns, with 95% confidence that the return would be between 5.2% A lot of it has not aged well.

Numbers 290

Numbers Investing Investments Marketing 290

The Big Picture

AUGUST 14, 2023

October 26, 2022) Why the Apple Store Will Fail (May 20, 2021) “No matter how you cut it, you’ve got to own Cisco” -2000 (May 15, 2023) Nobody Knows Anything, 2023 First Half Edition (June 30, 2023) Nobody Knows Anything (Collection) The post Nobody Knows Anything, Calvin & Hobbes edition appeared first on The Big Picture.

246

246

Calculated Risk

MAY 31, 2023

This series started in December 2000. Within separations, quits (3.8 million) changed little, while layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) decreased. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Numbers 333

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 333