The Reformed Broker

JANUARY 25, 2023

I had a bit of a flashback last night to the year 2000, sitting in my office after hours watching JDS Uniphase collapse on the heels of its conference call after reporting “better than expected” earnings for the quarter.

Marketing 325

Marketing Marketing 325

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 21, 2025

ofdollarsanddata.com) The Russell 2000 is not a great index. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Hedge fund fees have historically taken up nearly 50% of gains. institutionalinvestor.com) Research How do the three big arguments against passive investing hold up? scheplick.com) Quality value stocks perform well in the wake of an inflation shock.

Investing 162

Investing Investments 162

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 24, 2024

TAG Intel is led by Jack Devine, a 32-year veteran of the CIA, who aims to democratize the information he’s been bringing to global corporate clients since 2000.

Wealth Management 316

Wealth Management Management Clients 316

Calculated Risk

APRIL 3, 2025

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and is lower than the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue). Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

162

162

Calculated Risk

MARCH 27, 2025

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking below last year and is lower than the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue). Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

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162

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 28, 2025

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). With New York leading the nation for the seventh consecutive month and U.S. banks reporting strong Q4 earnings, this could set the Big Apple up as we close out the year. in November (SA).

Banking 235

Banking Assets Marketing Marketing 235

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 17, 2022

Mortgage application activity was lower last week, with overall applications declining over two percent to their lowest level since 2000. The refinance index, however, fell five percent to its lowest level since November 2000 , driven by a six percent drop in conventional refinance applications.”

Economy 348

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 348

Calculated Risk

MARCH 18, 2025

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 404,000 in February. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased month-over-month in February. Multi-family starts were down 4.6%

226

226

Calculated Risk

APRIL 17, 2025

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 445,000 in March. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased month-over-month in March. year-over-year.

147

147

Calculated Risk

MARCH 11, 2025

This series started in December 2000. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Numbers 165

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 165

Calculated Risk

APRIL 4, 2025

Job Streak Through March 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 51 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).

Numbers 179

Numbers Economics 179

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 2, 2025

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue). The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

165

165

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 24, 2024

TAG Intel is led by Jack Devine, a 32-year veteran of the CIA, who aims to democratize the information he’s been bringing to global corporate clients since 2000.

Wealth Management 264

Wealth Management Management Clients 264

Calculated Risk

MARCH 2, 2025

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and is lower than the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue). Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

147

147

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 19, 2025

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 427,000 in January. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased month-over-month in January. Multi-family starts were up 2.2% year-over-year.

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Abnormal Returns

MARCH 20, 2025

on.ft.com) The Irish Pub Company has designed some 2000 pubs around the globe. (wsj.com) Business Why other hotel operators are jealous of the Extended Stay America business model. skift.com) Does the Olympics business model still work?

Insurance 130

Insurance Banking 130

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2024

The following graph shows the year-over-year change through September 2024, in the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for "September" is a 3-month average of July, August and September closing prices.

Economics 147

Economics Sales 147

Calculated Risk

MAY 24, 2024

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year, and slightly above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue). Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

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305

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 29, 2024

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). With stronger gains in the Northeast and West than the South, blue states have outperformed red states dating back to July 2023.” emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. in August (SA).

Assets 189

Assets Marketing Marketing 189

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 29, 2024

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue) - and will likely finish mostly unchanged year-over-year. The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy.

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Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 20, 2024

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and is close to the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue). Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

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The Big Picture

JUNE 30, 2023

1 As of this moment, the indices stand appreciably higher than where they were on January 1, 2023: The NASDAQ 100 is up >38%, the S&P 500 is up ~15.5%, and the Russell 2000 small cap index is up almost 7%. Because almost nobody saw this rally coming. These numbers would make for a respectable year much less half that time.

Numbers 325

Numbers Investing Investments Management 325

Calculated Risk

MAY 2, 2023

This series started in December 2000. Within separations, quits (3.9 million) changed little, while layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) increased. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Numbers 361

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 361

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2023

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Continues to Trend Upward in August Click on graph for larger image. The Composite 10 index is up 1.0%

335

335

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 7, 2025

This streak survived the annual benchmark revision.

Numbers 179

Numbers Economics 179

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 7, 2024

abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Two stocks accounted for a third of the Russell 2000's 5.2% Also on the site Better investors make fewer decisions. return in Q1. wsj.com) How major asset classes performed in March 2024. capitalspectator.com) How to choose among total stock market ETFs.

Assets 305

Assets Accounting Investing Investments 305

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 4, 2023

This series started in December 2000. Within separations, quits (4.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.4 million) changed little. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Numbers 356

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 356

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 27, 2023

percent, the highest rate since December 2000, and the 30-year fixed jumbo mortgage rate increased to 7.34 percent, the highest level since December 2000 , from 7.31 “Mortgage rates moved to their highest levels in over 20 years as Treasury yields increased late last week. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 7.41

Accounting 307

Accounting Sales Marketing Marketing 307

Calculated Risk

JUNE 4, 2024

This series started in December 2000. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) changed little. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Numbers 331

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 331

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

This series started in December 2000. Within separations, quits (4.1 million) changed little and layoffs and discharges (1.3 million) edged down. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Numbers 354

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 354

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 26, 2024

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). The South region reported its slowest growth in over a year, rising 2.8%, barely above current inflation levels.” emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. in September (SA).

Assets 162

Assets 162

Calculated Risk

MARCH 8, 2023

This series started in December 2000. Within separations, quits (3.9 million) decreased, while layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) increased. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Numbers 349

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 349

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 25, 2024

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue). The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

281

281

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 8, 2024

2000=100) from the revised June reading of 200.5. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Expands Another 8% in July The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 7.9% in July to 216.3 Over the month, commercial planning increased 6.8% and institutional planning expanded 11.1%.

Healthcare 331

Healthcare Planning Retail Economics 331

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 1, 2023

This graph shows the strip mall vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 2000 the data is annual). The regional mall data starts in 2000. For strip malls, the vacancy rate peaked during the pandemic at 10.6% in both Q1 and Q2 2021. Back in the '80s, there was overbuilding in the mall sector even as the vacancy rate was rising.

Retail 363

Retail Assets Investing Investments 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2024

Here is a table showing single and multi-family housing starts and new home sales since 2000. How much will RI change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025? Note that single family starts, and new home sales declined sharply for several years following the housing bubble.

Sales 147

Sales Investing Investments Commission 147

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 9, 2022

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Advances In November The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 3.8% (2000=100) in November to 207.2 from the revised October reading of 199.6.

Healthcare 358

Healthcare Education Planning Government 358