The Big Picture

JUNE 30, 2023

1 As of this moment, the indices stand appreciably higher than where they were on January 1, 2023: The NASDAQ 100 is up >38%, the S&P 500 is up ~15.5%, and the Russell 2000 small cap index is up almost 7%. Because almost nobody saw this rally coming. These numbers would make for a respectable year much less half that time.

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Numbers Investing Investments Management 325

Advisor Perspectives

NOVEMBER 2, 2023

Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the October 2023 close.

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The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. The 2000 crash was the worst of all of these: The Nasdaq plummeted 81% from peak to trough. My economic future was uncertain, but I felt confident I could make a go of it.

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Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

The Big Picture

MAY 6, 2024

It’s taken me months to organize all of my research for my next book project; it’s a lot of stuff, some dating back to 2000. The mean forecast for the 25 years through 2000 was for 13% annual stock market returns, with 95% confidence that the return would be between 5.2% A lot of it has not aged well.

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Numbers Investing Investments Marketing 290

The Big Picture

AUGUST 14, 2023

October 26, 2022) Why the Apple Store Will Fail (May 20, 2021) “No matter how you cut it, you’ve got to own Cisco” -2000 (May 15, 2023) Nobody Knows Anything, 2023 First Half Edition (June 30, 2023) Nobody Knows Anything (Collection) The post Nobody Knows Anything, Calvin & Hobbes edition appeared first on The Big Picture.

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Abnormal Returns

MAY 15, 2024

moneymarketing.co.uk) The Russell 2000 is a wonky index. (wsj.com) Walmart ($WMT) is re-working its corporate staff. cnn.com) ETFs Active ETFs may be great for fund managers, but no so great for investors. ft.com) Economy The April CPI jumped by 0.3%. bonddad.blogspot.com) How we measure OER is complicated.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Advertising Retail Media 279

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

mathinvestor.org) A round-up of recent research white papers including 'Long-Term Private Equity Performance: 2000 to 2023.' (morningstar.com) There are more problems in academic finance than just p-hacking. bpsandpieces.com) Active management Institutional investors do a better job buying stocks than selling them.

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Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

optimisticallie.com) 42% of the Russell 2000 companies have negative earnings. (axios.com) The China stock market rally has gotten U.S. ETF investor attention. sherwood.news) Strategy The time to prepare for a bear market is before it is on the horizon. apolloacademy.com) OpenAI SoftBank is planning to invest $500 million in OpenAI.

Financial Advising 265

Financial Advising Financial Advice Economy Media 265

Validea

DECEMBER 10, 2024

Here are the top 10 Russell 2000 stocks that score highest according to our evaluation system for December of 2024. By applying these rigorous criteria, we aim to identify companies with strong fundamentals that align with time-tested investment principles.

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Investing Investments Marketing Marketing 52

The Big Picture

APRIL 19, 2023

Despite the headline, the Wall Street Journal chart (above) reveals 2022 as the exception that proves the point: Prior selloffs — 2000-03 and 2008-09 — were all equity driven. The 60/40 is not “back” because it never left. Those years are fairly ugly for investment portfolios.

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Portfolio Risk Tolerance Investing Investments 334

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

The best examples are 1946-66, 1982-2000, and 2013 forward. The only bear market rallies in the last seven decades stronger than the rise of the last two months were increases of 19.0%, 21.2%, and 20.7%, respectively, during the 2000-02 downturn and a 24.2% We call these eras Secular Bull Markets.

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The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 6, 2023

It’s a giant annual conference with 2000+ people attending in Miami to network, talk ETF’s, and discuss the future of the industry. I am in Florida for the big ETF Exchange event. It’s always a worthwhile hang.

Investing 277

Investing Investments Marketing Marketing 277

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 5, 2024

ft.com) Two stocks accounted for a third of the Russell 2000's 5.2% Markets The global universe of public equities is shrinking. return in Q1. wsj.com) Magnificent Seven earning revisions are slowing. ft.com) Strategy Rebalancing isn't market timing. awealthofcommonsense.com) Why you should 'diversify your diversifiers.'

Financial Advising 277

Financial Advising Advertising Media Economy 277

Abnormal Returns

JULY 26, 2024

riabiz.com) The Russell 2000 is a flawed index. (safalniveshak.com) The small cap bounce back will make stock picking fun again. scheplick.com) Fund management Is Vanguard, and by extension Blackrock ($BLK), getting too big for its own good? wsj.com) Manager selection is becoming more transparent.

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Financial Advising Engineering Economy Numbers 264

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 25, 2023

Over his 32-year tenure, the fund has beaten 100% of peers, and outperformed the Russell 2000 benchmark by 3.49% annually, and has more than doubled the performance of the S&P 500.

Economy 283

Economy Banking Economics Assets 283

Abnormal Returns

MAY 1, 2023

capitalspectator.com) The Nasdaq 100 has outpaced the Russell 2000 by over 20% in 2023. Markets How major asset classes performed in April 2023. twitter.com) Crypto Gary Gensler's SEC has been busy. investmentnews.com) Bitcoin transaction volume is on the rise. blockworks.co) Banks JP Morgan Chase ($JPM) is now the owner of First Republic.

Financial Advising 244

Financial Advising Startup Banking Manufacturing 244

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 17, 2024

Specs: -656BHP at 6000rpm -Maximum Torque: 800NM (2000-5000 rpm) -0-62 in 3.5 Even the interior, long an Aston Martin weak spot, looks fantastic. seconds (0-100km/h) -Top speed: 202mph (325kph) -All alloy quad overhead cam, 4.0

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Engineering Marketing Marketing 255

The Big Picture

JANUARY 20, 2023

Simply Red : We begin by noting there was nowhere to hide in 2022: last year saw losses for stocks and bonds, with Bonds off 12.9%, the S&P 50 Index down 19.7%, the Russell 2000 off 21.7%, and the Nasdaq 100 down 33.4%. Risk Appetite : Fund Managers surveyed by Bank America Merrill Lynch (BAML) are as negative about as they ever get.

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Retail Banking Economics Marketing 298

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

The Federal Reserve, in its belated attempt to fight inflation, has cranked up rates to the point where today, there is an alternative to stocks: Bonds.

Economy 312

Economy Taxes Marketing Marketing 312

Abnormal Returns

MAY 18, 2024

semafor.com) Climate 2023 was the hottest summer in 2000 years. (politico.com) Energy What happens you combine a green roof with solar panels? goodgoodgood.co) How China is encouraging battery recycling. arstechnica.com) U.S. gardening zones have shifted. apps.npr.org) Tornado season is changing. vox.com) Wildfire smoke is back.

Financial Advising 289

Financial Advising Transportation Media Food 289

The Big Picture

MAY 17, 2023

Anyone who wants to use Inflation Expectations as an indicator is welcome to — just so long as you recognize that they are a CONTRARY INDICATOR… Previously : 2000: “No matter how you cut it, you’ve got to own Cisco” (May 15, 2023) Can Anyone Catch Nokia? October 26, 2022) Gradually, Then Suddenly (October 1, 2021).

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 2, 2023

Over his 32-year tenure, the fund has beaten 100% of peers, and outperformed the Russell 2000 benchmark by 3.49% annually, and has more than doubled the performance of the S&P 500.

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The Big Picture

APRIL 22, 2023

When he launched the firm in 2000, no one in the legal field was offering a comprehensive set of regulatory and compliance services that he wanted to offer. Hamburger also hosts the MarketCounsel Summit , which has been called “ the Davos of wealth management.”

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Compliance Wealth Management Consulting Management 299

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 1, 2022

I wouldn’t call this an orderly sell-off, but it also hasn’t been the sort of collapse associated with true crashes like the 2000 tech wreck or the subprime mortgage/derivatives crisis. We are almost there – down ~25% this year (so far).

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Marketing Marketing Investing Investments 306

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

Year to date, the S&P 500 is down more than 23%; the Russell 2000 small caps are off more than 26%; Emerging markets are down almost 28%; and the Nasdaq Tech index is off more than 31%. Around the world, markets lost 5% or worse just last week. All jokes aside , September has lived up to its reputation as a challenging month for equities.

Asset Allocation 342

Asset Allocation Financial Planning Assets Media 342

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 14, 2022

If anybody would like a slightly used Exercycle, please call (212) 555-2000. To fill out the rest of my space so I can go home I will now throw in a few company results, which you could read on the most active table if you were really interested. Microsoft was up 1/4. Dell was down 1/8. Motorola was down 2. Exxon was up 3 1/8.

Marketing 342

Marketing Marketing Financial Services Accounting 342

The Big Picture

MAY 19, 2023

Russell 2000 is the big laggard in 2023, and has been much of the year. It’s not the total debt but rather the ability to service those debts that matters most… 10. Rally faltering Nasdaq is having a banner, nearing ATH (15.7% below); SPX up 10% is a good year (in only 6 months).

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Marketing Marketing Math Media 289

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 6, 2023

October 26, 2022) Why the Apple Store Will Fail (May 20, 2021) “No matter how you cut it, you’ve got to own Cisco” -2000 (May 15, 2023) Nobody Knows Anything, 2023 First Half Edition (June 30, 2023) Nobody Knows Anything (Collection) Source : When you hire stunt guys to direct the movie by Danny Boyd CinemaStix, April 1, 2023 _ 1.

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Distribution Retirement Sales 306

The Big Picture

APRIL 26, 2023

According to Demond, of the 14 major market tops between 1929 and 2000 inclusive, when the DJIA reached its absolute peak, the average percentage of stocks also making new highs on that day was 5.98%. The typical answers were in the 60, 70, 80% range. The actual answer was less than 6%.

Portfolio Management 288

Portfolio Management Marketing Marketing Portfolio 288

A Wealth of Common Sense

OCTOBER 30, 2022

From September 2012 through August 2021, Facebook shares were up a cool 2000%. The stock price actually fell 50% from May 2012 through September of that year. From that point on it was one of the best-performing tech stocks in the entire market. That’s 40% annualiz.

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Marketing Marketing Management 145

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 17, 2022

Mortgage application activity was lower last week, with overall applications declining over two percent to their lowest level since 2000. The refinance index, however, fell five percent to its lowest level since November 2000 , driven by a six percent drop in conventional refinance applications.”

Economy 139

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 139

The Big Picture

JUNE 20, 2024

These include July 1990 (1990-91 recession), March 2000 (dotcom top), October 2007 (GFC), September 2018 (Q4 20% drop), February 2020 (COVID), and January 2022 (525 bps of rate hikes in 18 months). The table above shows the major market peaks going back to 1990.

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Marketing Marketing Valuation Media 195

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

But not only did he turn out to be right, by 2000, the move was 1000%. It ended up being the better part of 1500 or 2000 percent going all the way up To to the top in either 98 or or 2000 if you wanna measure it there. A 500% move in the stock market. At the time, it wasn’t especially well received. And all the rest.

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Marketing Marketing Government Numbers 317

The Irrelevant Investor

SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

The last time it experienced a 12-month increase that large was in January 2000! A 60/40 portfolio just experienced the worst eight-month stretch to start a year going back to the inception of the Barclay’s aggregate bond index in 1976. One year ago the 10-year rate was 1.32%. It’s 3.35% today.

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Portfolio 143

The Big Picture

AUGUST 31, 2023

Irrelevant Investor ) see also “No matter how you cut it, you’ve got to own Cisco” (2000) 23 years ago, Fortune magazine’s cover story about networking gear maker Cisco was published. The one that people often compare it to is Cisco, one of the darlings from the dot com era. We can’t compare things to the future, so we look to the past.

Strategic Planning 246

Strategic Planning Economics Valuation Consulting 246

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 13, 2024

he is manager of the firm’s Technology Opportunities Fund (BGSAX), which has trounced the Nasdaq 100 and the MSCI World Net benchmarks since its inception in June 2000. This week, we speak with Tony Kim , Managing Director and Head of the Fundamental Equities Global Technology Team at BlackRock.

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Management Investing Investments 130

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

Economic Discomfort and Consumer Sentiment (SSRN Apr 2000). Here is what it looks like if we play around with the ratios, both 2-to-1 and 5-to-1 ; click ratios for FRED charts; click images below for larger charts. 2 to 1 Unemployment to Inflation ( Oswald ). 5-to-1 Unemployment to Inflation ( Blanchflower ). 46, October 2014).

Economics 325

Economics Budgeting Taxes Economy 325