Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 29, 2022

The cost of owning a home with a mortgage is the most expensive since at least 2000. Existing Home Sales long-term chart courtesy of Trading Economics. In declining sales environments and economic downturns (now), the Census Department dramatically overstates sales, even if we ignore revisions. Not a Crash?! New Home Sales.

Sales 285

Sales Economics Consulting Economy 285

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

And it was a miserable economic time, with both of these elevated measures together creating a period of unhappy people that the Misery index neatly captured. As Zunbrun observes, “ The Misery Index, as commonly constructed, doesn’t adequately capture how overall economic conditions affect attitudes.”. Should it be? 46, October 2014).

Economics 325

Economics Budgeting Taxes Economy 325

The Big Picture

AUGUST 31, 2023

Irrelevant Investor ) see also “No matter how you cut it, you’ve got to own Cisco” (2000) 23 years ago, Fortune magazine’s cover story about networking gear maker Cisco was published. The move from crypto to artificial intelligence has fueled the markets this year, but some are questioning how much of it is real.

Strategic Planning 246

Strategic Planning Economics Valuation Consulting 246

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. 2000-2003 Dotcom implosion 6. One of my favorite responsibilities as chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management is the quarterly conference call I do for our clients.

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

The Big Picture

JUNE 20, 2024

She observes it is less about the things investors tend to focus on — “technical analysis, geopolitics, behavioral finance and even skirt hemline trends” — and more about specific measures she tracks in sentiment, valuation, macro-economic areas. The table above shows the major market peaks going back to 1990.

Marketing 195

Marketing Marketing Valuation Media 195

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2023

but the giveback off the highs was substantial: S&P 500 was down ~23%, Russell 2000 was off 27%, and the Nasdaq 100 came down 32%. Recall John Kenneth Galbraith’s observation: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Blame whatever you want – Too far, too fast? End of ZIRP?

Economics 246

Economics Valuation Marketing Marketing 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 17, 2022

“Mortgage application activity was lower last week, with overall applications declining over two percent to their lowest level since 2000. The refinance index, however, fell five percent to its lowest level since November 2000 , driven by a six percent drop in conventional refinance applications.”

Economy 139

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 139

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

But not only did he turn out to be right, by 2000, the move was 1000%. It ended up being the better part of 1500 or 2000 percent going all the way up To to the top in either 98 or or 2000 if you wanna measure it there. A 500% move in the stock market. At the time, it wasn’t especially well received. And all the rest.

Marketing 317

Marketing Marketing Government Numbers 317

The Big Picture

JANUARY 31, 2024

As it turns out, there are ways investors can tell if an economic contraction is really coming. Claudia Sahm : A recession is a broad-based contraction in economic activity. Most economic rules that I’m familiar with, they’re pretty complex, they rely on a lot of moving parts. There still has been no recession.

Economy 298

Economy Economics Consulting Marketing 298

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 8, 2024

2000=100) from the revised June reading of 200.5. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Expands Another 8% in July The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 7.9% in July to 216.3 and institutional planning expanded 11.1%.

Healthcare 132

Healthcare Planning Retail Economics 132

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

Besides 2022, recent examples include 2018, 2000, and 2002 (the recession was in 2001). 550bps increases in the Federal Funds rate from March 2022 through July 2023 – and its long and variable lags – continues to exert a drag on the economy, which could lead to further economic contraction.

Economy 331

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 331

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 9, 2022

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Advances In November The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 3.8% (2000=100) in November to 207.2 from the revised October reading of 199.6. The rate of increase in the DMI, however, has steadied over the month.

Healthcare 143

Healthcare Education Planning Government 143

Calculated Risk

APRIL 8, 2024

2000=100) from the revised February reading of 179.5. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Fell 9% in March The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, fell 8.6% in March to 164.0 Over the month, commercial planning fell 3.2%

Education 122

Education Planning Accounting Economics 122

Calculated Risk

MAY 3, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in April to 4.47 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in April to 4.47 YoY in April.

Numbers 127

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 127

Calculated Risk

JUNE 7, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.42 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.42 YoY in May. million from 4.47

Numbers 127

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 127

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.31 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.31 YoY in March.

Numbers 127

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 127

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 3, 2022

percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. The refinance index is just above the lowest level since the year 2000. Treasury yields dropped as a result, as investors continue to expect a weaker macroeconomic environment in the coming months.

Economics 143

Economics Marketing Marketing 143

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

Recent economic data will likely prevent any significant decline in mortgage rates in the near term, but the strong job market depicted in the August data should support housing demand. The refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Economy 141

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 141

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Continues to Climb in October he Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, improved 9.6% (2000=100) in October to 199.7 from the revised September reading of 182.2.

Healthcare 125

Healthcare Education Planning Economics 125

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2023

2000=100) from the revised January reading of 199.3. Owners and developers tend to put projects into planning until well after economic conditions weaken. Therefore, the anticipated mild economic growth in 2023 could cause the DMI to moderate over the year, but it is unlikely to fall below historical norms.” in February to 203.0

Healthcare 110

Healthcare Economics Planning Education 110

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.57 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.57

Numbers 127

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 127

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 10, 2024

2000=100) from the revised July reading of 214.2. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Rises 3% in August The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 2.9% in August to 220.4 and institutional planning improved 5.7%.

Healthcare 120

Healthcare Planning Retail Economics 120

Calculated Risk

MAY 9, 2023

2000=100) from the revised March reading of 190.6. On par with our expectations, the Dodge Momentum Index continued to recede in April, due to declining economic conditions and ongoing banking uncertainty.” Commercial construction is a lagging economic indicator. in April to 180.9

Healthcare 103

Healthcare Economics Education Planning 103

Calculated Risk

JULY 27, 2022

“Mortgage applications declined for the fourth consecutive week to the lowest level of activity since February 2000. The refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990. With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months.

Economics 98

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 98

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 24, 2022

The average purchase loan size continued to trend lower, as purchase activity at the high end of the market is weakening,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. The refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000. percent – the highest in nearly a month.

Government 141

Government Economics Marketing Marketing 141

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.62 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.62

Numbers 122

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 122

Calculated Risk

JULY 10, 2024

2000=100) from the revised May reading of 179.9. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Gained 10% in June The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 10.4% in June to 198.6 and institutional planning ticked up 0.2%.

Healthcare 111

Healthcare Planning Education Retail 111

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2023

Data on inflation, employment, and economic activity have signaled that inflation may not be cooling as quickly as anticipated, which continues to put upward pressure on rates.” Other than the lows in Q4 of 2022 and early this year, the refinance index was at the lowest level since the year 2000.

Accounting 142

Accounting Economics Marketing Marketing 142

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 11, 2023

2000=100) from the revised July reading of 190.3. Commercial construction is a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Drops 6.5% in August The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, declined 6.5% in August to 178.0

Healthcare 121

Healthcare Planning Education Economics 121

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

“Purchase applications increased for the first time after six weeks of declines but remained close to 2015 lows, as homebuyers remained sidelined by higher rates and ongoing economic uncertainty. Refinances continued to fall, with the index hitting its lowest level since August 2000.”. percent from 7.06

Economics 98

Economics 98

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 5, 2022

Net absorption rose in June and July, in line with the return to office sentiment, but that trend was short-lived as economic uncertainties pressured the sector’s fundamentals. This graph shows the strip mall vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 2000 the data is annual). The regional mall data starts in 2000.

Retail 125

Retail Economics Assets Planning 125

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 26, 2022

Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook, inflation and the labor market on Thursday. -- Monday, November 28th -- 10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. 1:30 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell , Economic Outlook, Inflation, and the Labor Market, At the Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue N.W.,

Manufacturing 125

Manufacturing Sales Economics Banking 125

Calculated Risk

MAY 25, 2024

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). 9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for March. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

Manufacturing 112

Manufacturing Sales Banking Economics 112

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 6, 2023

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.07 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.07 in September.

Numbers 124

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 124

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 14, 2022

percent – which is essentially double what it was a year ago,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. The refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000. “The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit the six percent mark for the first time since 2008 – rising to 6.01

Government 127

Government Economics Marketing Marketing 127

Calculated Risk

MAY 8, 2024

2000=100) from the revised March reading of 164.0. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Rose 6% in April The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 6.1% in April to 173.9 Over the month, commercial planning improved 12.6%

Healthcare 107

Healthcare Planning Education Economics 107

Calculated Risk

APRIL 10, 2023

2000=100) from the revised February reading of 201.0. We are predicting the Dodge Momentum Index to work its way back to historical norms throughout 2023, concurrent with weaker economic conditions,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting for Dodge Construction Network. in March to 183.7

Healthcare 102

Healthcare Education Banking Economics 102