Nationwide Financial

JUNE 13, 2023

Coming off the blowout jobs report and the debt ceiling agreement, last week was a slower week for economic data. Given the Fed’s guidance, we expect them to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday, but retain a hawkish bias which opens the door to a July rate hike if economic activity and namely inflation do not cool sufficiently.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Retail Sales 52

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 8, 2024

2000=100) from the revised June reading of 200.5. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Expands Another 8% in July The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 7.9% in July to 216.3 and institutional planning expanded 11.1%.

Healthcare 131

Healthcare Planning Retail Economics 131

The Big Picture

JANUARY 20, 2023

Simply Red : We begin by noting there was nowhere to hide in 2022: last year saw losses for stocks and bonds, with Bonds off 12.9%, the S&P 50 Index down 19.7%, the Russell 2000 off 21.7%, and the Nasdaq 100 down 33.4%. Risk Appetite : Fund Managers surveyed by Bank America Merrill Lynch (BAML) are as negative about as they ever get.

Retail 293

Retail Banking Economics Marketing 293

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 29, 2022

The cost of owning a home with a mortgage is the most expensive since at least 2000. Existing Home Sales long-term chart courtesy of Trading Economics. In declining sales environments and economic downturns (now), the Census Department dramatically overstates sales, even if we ignore revisions. Not a Crash?! New Home Sales.

Sales 285

Sales Economics Consulting Economy 285

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 10, 2024

2000=100) from the revised July reading of 214.2. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Rises 3% in August The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 2.9% in August to 220.4 and institutional planning improved 5.7%.

Healthcare 117

Healthcare Planning Retail Economics 117

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.62 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.62

Numbers 120

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 120

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in October to 4.56 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in October to 4.56

Retail 109

Retail Numbers Economics Sales 109

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

The best examples are 1946-66, 1982-2000, and 2013 forward. This is supported generally by economic strength in the labor market, strong consumer spending, and record high corporate profits. We call these eras Secular Bull Markets. The counterargument is the spike in inflation has changed the dynamic of the economy.

Economy 326

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 326

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 17, 2022

“Mortgage application activity was lower last week, with overall applications declining over two percent to their lowest level since 2000. The refinance index, however, fell five percent to its lowest level since November 2000 , driven by a six percent drop in conventional refinance applications.”

Economy 139

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 139

Carson Wealth

JULY 29, 2024

last week, declining for the second consecutive week, but there’s still a lot of strength under the surface, as the small cap Russell 2000 Index climbed 3.5%. March 2000 at the peak of the tech bubble. Q2 GDP Growth Confirms Economic Resilience The economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.8% The S&P 500 fell 0.8%

Marketing 93

Marketing Marketing Economy Transportation 93

Calculated Risk

JULY 10, 2024

2000=100) from the revised May reading of 179.9. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Gained 10% in June The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 10.4% in June to 198.6 and institutional planning ticked up 0.2%.

Healthcare 109

Healthcare Planning Education Retail 109

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.57 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.57

Numbers 126

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 126

Calculated Risk

JUNE 7, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.42 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.42 YoY in May. million from 4.47

Numbers 126

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 126

Calculated Risk

APRIL 8, 2024

2000=100) from the revised February reading of 179.5. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Fell 9% in March The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, fell 8.6% in March to 164.0 Over the month, commercial planning fell 3.2%

Education 119

Education Planning Accounting Economics 119

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in August to 4.83 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in August to 4.83

Numbers 108

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 108

Advisor Perspectives

OCTOBER 27, 2023

You won’t find this term in any serious economics textbook, but the only clinical way to describe the US housing market is bananas. Affordability is at record lows and mortgage rates are the highest since 2000.

Economics 52

Economics Marketing Marketing 52

Calculated Risk

MAY 3, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in April to 4.47 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in April to 4.47 YoY in April.

Numbers 126

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 126

Calculated Risk

MAY 9, 2023

2000=100) from the revised March reading of 190.6. On par with our expectations, the Dodge Momentum Index continued to recede in April, due to declining economic conditions and ongoing banking uncertainty.” Commercial construction is a lagging economic indicator. in April to 180.9

Healthcare 102

Healthcare Economics Education Planning 102

Nationwide Financial

MAY 10, 2023

The Russell 2000® Index (which tracks small-cap stock performance) was up only 0.44%. Are the Russell 2000’s weak returns a sign of slowing economic growth, or is the recent underperformance of small caps reflecting investor sentiment about current market opportunities?

Risk Tolerance 52

Risk Tolerance Valuation Economics Banking 52

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

And it was a miserable economic time, with both of these elevated measures together creating a period of unhappy people that the Misery index neatly captured. As Zunbrun observes, “ The Misery Index, as commonly constructed, doesn’t adequately capture how overall economic conditions affect attitudes.”. Should it be? 46, October 2014).

Economics 322

Economics Budgeting Taxes Economy 322

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 10, 2024

2000=100) from the revised September reading of 208.2. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Retreats 5% in October The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, decreased 5.3% in October to 197.2

Healthcare 57

Healthcare Planning Education Economics 57

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2023

but the giveback off the highs was substantial: S&P 500 was down ~23%, Russell 2000 was off 27%, and the Nasdaq 100 came down 32%. Recall John Kenneth Galbraith’s observation: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Blame whatever you want – Too far, too fast? End of ZIRP?

Economics 246

Economics Valuation Marketing Marketing 246

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.31 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.31 YoY in March.

Numbers 126

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 126

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2023

2000=100) from the revised January reading of 199.3. Owners and developers tend to put projects into planning until well after economic conditions weaken. Therefore, the anticipated mild economic growth in 2023 could cause the DMI to moderate over the year, but it is unlikely to fall below historical norms.” in February to 203.0

Healthcare 108

Healthcare Economics Planning Education 108

Calculated Risk

JULY 27, 2022

“Mortgage applications declined for the fourth consecutive week to the lowest level of activity since February 2000. The refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990. With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months.

Economics 98

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 98

Calculated Risk

MAY 8, 2024

2000=100) from the revised March reading of 164.0. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Rose 6% in April The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 6.1% in April to 173.9 Over the month, commercial planning improved 12.6%

Healthcare 105

Healthcare Planning Education Economics 105

Calculated Risk

MAY 25, 2024

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). 9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for March. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

Manufacturing 110

Manufacturing Sales Banking Economics 110

Nationwide Financial

MAY 4, 2023

Tighter monetary policy has helped bring inflation down somewhat from its peak last June, with the expected consequence of slowing economic growth as seen in the Q1 GDP report. Nationwide Economics expects the Fed’s recent quarter-point hike to be the last tightening move for the current cycle.

Economics 75

Economics Banking Retirement Financial Market 75

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 11, 2023

2000=100) from the revised July reading of 190.3. Commercial construction is a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Drops 6.5% in August The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, declined 6.5% in August to 178.0

Healthcare 119

Healthcare Planning Education Economics 119

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

“Purchase applications increased for the first time after six weeks of declines but remained close to 2015 lows, as homebuyers remained sidelined by higher rates and ongoing economic uncertainty. Refinances continued to fall, with the index hitting its lowest level since August 2000.”. percent from 7.06

Economics 98

Economics 98

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 9, 2022

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Advances In November The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 3.8% (2000=100) in November to 207.2 from the revised October reading of 199.6. The rate of increase in the DMI, however, has steadied over the month.

Healthcare 143

Healthcare Education Planning Government 143

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. 2000-2003 Dotcom implosion 6. One of my favorite responsibilities as chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management is the quarterly conference call I do for our clients.

Media 350

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 350

Calculated Risk

APRIL 10, 2023

2000=100) from the revised February reading of 201.0. We are predicting the Dodge Momentum Index to work its way back to historical norms throughout 2023, concurrent with weaker economic conditions,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting for Dodge Construction Network. in March to 183.7

Healthcare 101

Healthcare Education Banking Economics 101

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

2000=100) from the revised November reading of 181.5. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Improves 3% in December The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network (DCN), rose 3% in December to 186.6

Planning 70

Planning Economics 70

The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

The leading economic indicators show the U.S. economy is performing well, but most Americans still believe economic conditions are extremely poor — as if the country was mired in a deep recession. 2000-2003 Dotcom implosion 6. The approach that works the best is also the one most people ignore. Sapient Capital ) • If the U.S.

Insurance 130

Insurance Math Economics Economy 130

Calculated Risk

JULY 20, 2022

“Mortgage applications declined for the third week in a row, reaching the lowest level since 2000. Purchase activity declined for both conventional and government loans, as the weakening economic outlook, high inflation, and persistent affordability challenges are impacting buyer demand. percent from 5.74

Economics 73

Economics Government 73

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Continues to Climb in October he Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, improved 9.6% (2000=100) in October to 199.7 from the revised September reading of 182.2.

Healthcare 124

Healthcare Education Planning Economics 124