Abnormal Returns

APRIL 5, 2024

ft.com) Two stocks accounted for a third of the Russell 2000's 5.2% wsj.com) Economy The March NFP report was 'uniformly positive.' calculatedrisk.substack.com) Americans are confusing the current economic situation with their hopes for the future. Markets The global universe of public equities is shrinking. return in Q1.

Financial Advising 276

Financial Advising Advertising Media Accounting 276

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 29, 2022

The cost of owning a home with a mortgage is the most expensive since at least 2000. These economies continue to underperform, and we worry about significant out-migration and sustained population loss. Existing Home Sales long-term chart courtesy of Trading Economics. Image courtesy of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.

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Sales Economics Consulting Economy 285

Abnormal Returns

MAY 18, 2024

semafor.com) Climate 2023 was the hottest summer in 2000 years. maddieburton.substack.com) Luxury hotels have rebounded better than economy hotels. wsj.com) Food The economics of Sweetgreen ($SG). (politico.com) Energy What happens you combine a green roof with solar panels? arstechnica.com) U.S. gardening zones have shifted.

Financial Advising 288

Financial Advising Transportation Media Food 288

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. 2 Regardless, something is amiss. Atlantic, Oct.

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 10, 2022

Mortgage applications were relatively flat, with a decline in purchase activity offset by an increase in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “ The refinance index is just above the lowest level since the year 2000.

Economy 245

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 245

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

And it was a miserable economic time, with both of these elevated measures together creating a period of unhappy people that the Misery index neatly captured. As Zunbrun observes, “ The Misery Index, as commonly constructed, doesn’t adequately capture how overall economic conditions affect attitudes.”. Should it be? 46, October 2014).

Economics 325

Economics Budgeting Taxes Economy 325

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

percent – the highest since October 2008,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “As The refinance index is just above the lowest level since the year 2000. Mortgage rates followed suit last week, increasing across the board, with the 30-year fixed rate jumping 24 basis points to 6.25

Economy 239

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 239

The Big Picture

JANUARY 31, 2024

Bad things happen when the economy contracts. As it turns out, there are ways investors can tell if an economic contraction is really coming. Tell us what happens to the economy during a recession. Claudia Sahm : A recession is a broad-based contraction in economic activity. There still has been no recession.

Economy 298

Economy Economics Consulting Marketing 298

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2023

but the giveback off the highs was substantial: S&P 500 was down ~23%, Russell 2000 was off 27%, and the Nasdaq 100 came down 32%. Recall John Kenneth Galbraith’s observation: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” are fast-growing, highly profitable key players in the modern economy.

Economics 246

Economics Valuation Marketing Marketing 246

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

Besides 2022, recent examples include 2018, 2000, and 2002 (the recession was in 2001). Federal Reserve : While a recession is possible in 2024, it mostly depends upon how long the FOMC keeps rates tighter (higher) than is appropriate for the economy. Down years are far more likely than up years to be associated with recessions.

Economy 331

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 331

Calculated Risk

JUNE 7, 2023

2000=100) from the revised April reading of 184.1. This paints an optimistic landscape for non-residential construction in mid-2024, as the economy recovers and the Fed begins to pull back rates.” Commercial construction is a lagging economic indicator. in May to 180.5

Planning 130

Planning Education Economy Economics 130

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

Good news can be bad news in the short run, but a solid economy usually becomes good news again once we get past the initial market reaction. If the underlying economy is sound, pullbacks like this can actually be a positive for the longer-term health of the market. The economy created over 2 million jobs in 2024, down from 2.4

Marketing 68

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 68

Carson Wealth

JULY 29, 2024

last week, declining for the second consecutive week, but there’s still a lot of strength under the surface, as the small cap Russell 2000 Index climbed 3.5%. March 2000 at the peak of the tech bubble. Q2 GDP Growth Confirms Economic Resilience The economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.8% The S&P 500 fell 0.8%

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Transportation 96

The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

economy is doing well, why do so many Americans say it’s terrible? The leading economic indicators show the U.S. economy is performing well, but most Americans still believe economic conditions are extremely poor — as if the country was mired in a deep recession. 2000-2003 Dotcom implosion 6. 1987 Crash 3.

Insurance 130

Insurance Math Economics Economy 130

Bell Investment Advisors

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

The economic backdrop to these losses, however, stands out. Comparing present day data with data from 2000 through 2019, we clearly see strength in the present. The broader economy surprises, too. A report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that gross domestic product grew at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 4.9%

Economy 52

Economy Economics Numbers Investment Advisor 52

The Big Picture

MARCH 4, 2025

Previously she was co-head of the bank’s Innovation Economy Group. And in my summer in between I worked for Mayor Daley in Chicago on economic development issues. Alright, so, so you go from public finance, how did you evolve towards co-head of innovation economy? Imagine what that was like. Melissa Smith : Sure.

Banking 130

Banking Economy Startup Marketing 130

Trade Brains

SEPTEMBER 30, 2023

Most traded Commodities in The World : Commodities are the basic essential materials of a good economy from which other by-products are manufactured. Here we shall discuss the most traded commodities in the world with their importance, impact on economics and factors affecting their prices globally.

Economics 119

Economics Food Manufacturing Government 119

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 23, 2024

Let’s Not Get Too Excited Yet Yes, stocks hit new highs across the board last week on optimism about an economy that would likely avoid a recession and a Fed that was now cutting rates. All this is very positive for the economy. And if economic growth remains resilient, bond yields should not be moving lower. Matching the 13.9%

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 96

Nationwide Financial

JUNE 13, 2023

Coming off the blowout jobs report and the debt ceiling agreement, last week was a slower week for economic data. Given the Fed’s guidance, we expect them to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday, but retain a hawkish bias which opens the door to a July rate hike if economic activity and namely inflation do not cool sufficiently.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Retail Sales 52

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 19, 2024

As we will discuss below in more detail, we still believe the US economy is just fine. Given the somewhat gloomy economic expectations still baked into the market following the weaker-than-expected August 2 jobs report, the market response was decisively positive. Yes, it might be slowing some, but slowing doesn’t mean a recession.

Retail 95

Retail Marketing Marketing Sales 95

Investing Caffeine

FEBRUARY 1, 2023

Commentators continue to shout the doom-and-gloom forecasts of a hard landing recession, but after an economic hurricane in 2022 there are some signs the financial clouds have begun to lift this year. Investors Waiting for Another Flood While the calls for a hard economic landing remain, healthy GDP growth ( +2.9%

Economy 59

Economy Economics CFP Investing 59

Dear Mr. Market

JULY 8, 2023

Throughout the past year, a chorus of voices emerged, proclaiming that the global economy was teetering on the edge of a precipice. They cited various factors, including rising inflation, geopolitical tensions, and lingering effects of the pandemic, as harbingers of an impending economic downturn.

Economics 106

Economics Economy Media Marketing 106

Mr. Money Mustache

FEBRUARY 25, 2025

For example, if the house brings in $2000 per month ($24,000 each year) and the sale price is $240,000, the next investor is buying a business with a price-to-earnings ratio of 10, because 240k/24k=10. Does it mean our entire economy is expected to grow much more quickly? In the case of the current stock market euphoria, not exactly.

Marketing 66

Marketing Marketing Sales Portfolio 66

Nationwide Financial

MAY 4, 2023

Tighter monetary policy has helped bring inflation down somewhat from its peak last June, with the expected consequence of slowing economic growth as seen in the Q1 GDP report. Nationwide Economics expects the Fed’s recent quarter-point hike to be the last tightening move for the current cycle.

Economics 75

Economics Banking Retirement Financial Market 75

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 23, 2023

Yields rose after traders speculated that strong economic data might persuade the Fed to raise rates. for the first time since 2007, while mortgage rates hit 8%–the highest level since mid-2000. Economic Strength, Housing Weakness The economy continued to evidence surprising strength according to data released last week.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 105

Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 18, 2023

In their updated “ Summary of Economic Projections ,” they revised their estimates of core inflation for 2023 down from 3.7% Markets were off to the races after the Fed released its statement and economic projections. Lower interest rates can have significant positive effects on the economy, including on mortgage rates.

Marketing 95

Marketing Marketing Economy Investing 95

Trade Brains

JULY 8, 2024

Even though their story isn’t being splashed often across headlines their work is etched in the towering pillars of the bridges that connect communities and infrastructure that fuels the economic growth. Despite global economic challenges, India is expected to become the fastest-growing major economy.

Government 96

Government Manufacturing Budgeting Economics 96

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 25, 2025

Now, this wonderful section in this little bitty book that I’ve just finished, wonderful section on behavioral economics, terrific book by Daniel Kahneman, thinking Fast, thinking Slow. So what could you do to reduce the cost of behavioral economics? It’s terrible for our economy. That’s several hundred pages.

Investing 162

Investing Investments Management Engineering 162

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

And so, coming out of school, I studied Economics and Spanish Literature, and I applied to a — a program that actually targeted Liberal Arts majors. BITTERLY MICHELL: … obviously, the United States, the global economy. It was at Bank One, at the time. Like lives are completely changed across …. RITHOLTZ: Right. risk matters.

Clients 299

Clients Wealth Management Banking Investing 299

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 19, 2023

Since 1995, there are four rather distinct periods during which forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500 Index declined, tied to a specific event and/or economic downturn. Further, stock markets tend historically to move in advance of changes in economic activity or earnings trajectory, not in response to those changes. company.

Clients 98

Clients Economy Economics Marketing 98

The Irrelevant Investor

JANUARY 19, 2021

Small businesses got absolutely decimated by the economic shutdown. The S&P 500 had a peak-to-trough decline of 34%, whereas the Russell 2000 fell 41% and the even smaller Russell Micro Cap index fell 43%. 83% of stocks in the Russell 2000 have positive returns over the last 6 months. The answer, mostly everything.

Economy 52

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 52

Nationwide Financial

MAY 10, 2023

The Russell 2000® Index (which tracks small-cap stock performance) was up only 0.44%. Are the Russell 2000’s weak returns a sign of slowing economic growth, or is the recent underperformance of small caps reflecting investor sentiment about current market opportunities?

Risk Tolerance 52

Risk Tolerance Valuation Economics Banking 52

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 20, 2023

On Tuesday, the Russell 2000 Index, which is composed of small-caps, gained nearly 5.4%, marking one of its best days ever. That is particularly meaningful because households have more income to spend elsewhere — keeping consumption and the economy humming. in October. Over the last six months, core CPI has run at a 3.2%

Marketing 95

Marketing Marketing Economy Distribution 95

The Big Picture

MAY 30, 2023

And he’s really moving the needle in terms of having people take control of their own financial life in a way that benefits not just them but the entire economy and all of society. I had an economics lesson, I had a life lesson, I had an epiphany, I had a race relations lesson, I had a self-esteem and confidence lesson.

Banking 147

Banking Economics Business Planning Economy 147

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 22, 2024

For a broad view of our expectations for the economy, stocks, and bonds in 2024, download our 2024 Market Outlook. That bear eventually ended in October 2022, and since then stocks have defied many experts, who continually (and incorrectly) touted a weakening economy, tapped-out consumer, and many other reasons to doubt the new bull market.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Portfolio 97

Truemind Capital

JANUARY 19, 2024

India is strongly intertwined with Global markets financially and economically. Thus what happens in the USA and other developed economies has a significant impact on the Indian economy as well. The IT bubble burst in 2000 was majorly a US phenomenon but Indian stock markets corrected by 60-65% from the peak.

Economy 52

Economy Investing Investments Economics 52

Discipline Funds

JULY 23, 2024

We know absolute deflation and high inflation are both consistent with economic decline. And we also know that an economy can prosper with some very low level of inflation. For instance, here’s a chart of USD reserves held by foreign nations since 2000. This is why the Fed targets a low rate of inflation.

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Assets Government Financial Planning Economy 115