Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2024

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 YoY in September.

Numbers 306

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 306

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. 2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 6, 2023

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 119,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 million from 4.22

Numbers 312

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 312

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8 YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8%

Numbers 277

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 277

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Continues to Climb in October he Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, improved 9.6% (2000=100) in October to 199.7 from the revised September reading of 182.2. Commercial planning was bolstered by a solid increase in office and hotel projects.

Healthcare 313

Healthcare Education Planning Numbers 313

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down by 101,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million from 4.07 million from 4.07

Retail 333

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 333

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 8, 2023

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was at expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 295,000 to 4.0

Retail 317

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 317

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 71,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 YoY in December.

Retail 302

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 302

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. A large portion of the decline in the participation rate since 2000 was due to demographics and long-term trends. I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. in February 2020, and up from the pandemic low of 60.1%

Economics 289

Economics Sales Retirement Numbers 289

Calculated Risk

JULY 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the June employment report was above expectations, however April and May payrolls were revised down by 111,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 million, changed little in June. million from 4.42

Numbers 211

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 211

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 2, 2024

The headline jobs number in the January employment report was well above expectations, and November and December payrolls were revised up by 126,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " In January, the number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 Including revisions: The 3.06

Numbers 219

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 219

Calculated Risk

MARCH 8, 2024

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, changed little in February.

Numbers 173

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 173

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2023

but the giveback off the highs was substantial: S&P 500 was down ~23%, Russell 2000 was off 27%, and the Nasdaq 100 came down 32%. Recall John Kenneth Galbraith’s observation: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Blame whatever you want – Too far, too fast? End of ZIRP?

Economics 246

Economics Valuation Marketing Marketing 246

Calculated Risk

MAY 11, 2024

For manufacturing, April Industrial Production, and the May NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. -- Monday, May 13th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, May 14th -- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April. This graph shows single and total housing starts since 2000. up from -14.3.

Retail 173

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 173

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 8, 2023

2000=100) from the revised June reading of 195.1. July also saw a deceleration in the number of education and healthcare projects entering planning — the two largest institutional segments. Commercial construction is a lagging economic indicator. in July to 193.4 emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

Healthcare 130

Healthcare Planning Education Numbers 130

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 25, 2024

The Russell 2000, an index of 2,000 small-cap companies widely used as a benchmark for U.S. 7 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Consumer Confidence. Source: I nvestors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar ; November 21, 2024 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. small-cap stocks, rose 4.50

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 52

The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

Schroders ) • The Exact Age When You Make Your Best Financial Decisions There’s a magic number for when your expertise and cognitive powers align. The leading economic indicators show the U.S. 2000-2003 Dotcom implosion 6. Savings rates have rocketed and UK savers can earn over 5% on deposits. With the 10 year at 4.2%

Insurance 130

Insurance Math Economics Economy 130

Carson Wealth

JULY 29, 2024

last week, declining for the second consecutive week, but there’s still a lot of strength under the surface, as the small cap Russell 2000 Index climbed 3.5%. March 2000 at the peak of the tech bubble. Q2 GDP Growth Confirms Economic Resilience The economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.8% The S&P 500 fell 0.8%

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Transportation 96

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Other than 2000 and 2020 there is not much lead time between the time industrial production peaks and recession starts. The current numbers by themselves do not indicate much of anything but they are one of the items the NBER will use in arrears to determine if a recession has started. The chart is through October.

Manufacturing 130

Manufacturing Numbers Economics 130

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

DECEMBER 2, 2024

Weekly Market Insights | December 2nd, 2024 Solid Gains for Thanksgiving Week Stocks posted solid gains over a short and busy holiday week as investors parsed fresh economic data, comments on potential future trade policy, and a few Q3 reports from technology companies. One area of concern has been the economic impact of proposed tariffs.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 52

Calculated Risk

MAY 27, 2023

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). The number of job openings (black) were down 20% year-over-year. 9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for March 2022. million from 10.0

Manufacturing 130

Manufacturing Sales Government Banking 130

Abnormal Returns

MAY 20, 2023

suicide rates are up some 40% since 2000. brookings.edu) States are providing free college educations to increase the number of trained teachers. abnormalreturns.com) Podcast links: the economics of innovation (abnormalreturns.com) Are you a financial adviser looking for some out-of-the-box thinking? wired.com) However, U.S.

Education 130

Education Financial Advising Media Food 130

The Big Picture

MARCH 25, 2025

And, and I kind of raised my hand and said, dad, uncle John, don’t you think it might be a better idea to look at it by the numbers? So, the reason I am an economics, I have a degree in economics. The reason for that was I had maybe six more credits, four to six more credits in economics than I had in history.

Management 147

Management Numbers Investing Investments 147

Nationwide Financial

JUNE 13, 2023

Coming off the blowout jobs report and the debt ceiling agreement, last week was a slower week for economic data. Given the Fed’s guidance, we expect them to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday, but retain a hawkish bias which opens the door to a July rate hike if economic activity and namely inflation do not cool sufficiently.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Retail Sales 52

Validea

JUNE 14, 2023

A Glimpse into the Past: The Historical Giants In order to understand the potential growth trajectory to a $10 trillion company, we must first examine the economic giants of the past. In 2000, General Electric accounted for over 5% of the S&P 500 ( source ). In 2000, the total value of the US stock market was $15.1

Math 109

Math Accounting Marketing Marketing 109

Trade Brains

SEPTEMBER 30, 2023

Here we shall discuss the most traded commodities in the world with their importance, impact on economics and factors affecting their prices globally. The price of Brent crude oil depends on supply and demand factors where the demand for crude oil is linked with global economic performance.

Economics 119

Economics Food Manufacturing Government 119

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

Monthly numbers can be noisy and so a 3-month average is helpful. The hiring rate, which is the number of hires as a percent of the labor force, has fallen to 3.3%, the slowest pace since 2013 (outside of the Covid months). The economy created 256,000 jobs in December, blowing past expectations for a 165,000 increase.

Marketing 68

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 68

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 25, 2025

Now, this wonderful section in this little bitty book that I’ve just finished, wonderful section on behavioral economics, terrific book by Daniel Kahneman, thinking Fast, thinking Slow. 00:27:54 [Speaker Changed] Let’s put some, some numbers, some mean on that bone. 00:46:08 So it does have an economic value.

Investments 162

Investments Investing Management Engineering 162

The Big Picture

JANUARY 21, 2025

Barry Ritholtz : The the funny thing is, the behavioral aspect of mutual funds seems to have been when people finally learn about a manager who’s put up great numbers, by the time it makes to make makes it to Forbes, hey, most of that run is probably over and a little mean reversion is about to kick in. I did it in 2000, 2002.

Investing 147

Investing Investments Management Retirement 147

The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2022

What makes Graham so interesting is while everybody else in the world of private equity is focused on the analytics and crunching numbers and creating econometric models that will tell you where to invest, I think they’ve found a very different model that has been extremely successful for them, where the key focus is on talent.

Consulting 298

Consulting Numbers Management Investing 298

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 19, 2024

Those numbers were the underpinning of a large upside surprise in July retail sales. Given the somewhat gloomy economic expectations still baked into the market following the weaker-than-expected August 2 jobs report, the market response was decisively positive. Headline retail sales came in at 1.0% versus a 0.2% consensus expectation.

Retail 95

Retail Marketing Marketing Sales 95

The Irrelevant Investor

AUGUST 21, 2015

Daniel Kahneman, one of the pioneers of behavioral economics, describes framing in his Thinking, Fast and Slow : "Framing effects: Different ways of presenting the same information often evoke different emotions. However, by the nature of where these prices are anchored to, the numbers are pretty misleading.

Numbers 52

Numbers Economics Marketing Marketing 52

Dear Mr. Market

JULY 8, 2023

They cited various factors, including rising inflation, geopolitical tensions, and lingering effects of the pandemic, as harbingers of an impending economic downturn. Economic indicators have displayed some resilience and even showed signs of strength in certain sectors.

Economics 107

Economics Economy Media Marketing 107

Mr. Money Mustache

FEBRUARY 25, 2025

For example, if the house brings in $2000 per month ($24,000 each year) and the sale price is $240,000, the next investor is buying a business with a price-to-earnings ratio of 10, because 240k/24k=10. This year they came up with these numbers: Vanguards updated 10-year annualized return projections: Global bonds, non-U.S.:

Marketing 66

Marketing Marketing Sales Portfolio 66

Nationwide Financial

MARCH 13, 2023

Despite the strong 311,000 gain in net new jobs in February, the average number of hours worked by employees fell a 0.1 Despite the strong 311,000 gain in net new jobs in February, the average number of hours worked by employees fell a 0.1 The decline in unit auto sales on the month should weigh on the headline reading.

Economics 52

Economics Retail Sales Food 52

Validea

FEBRUARY 17, 2023

Wall Streeters give a lot of credence to economic forecasts at the start of every year, as corporations project demand and craft their budgets and money managers plan out their strategies for the next year. for 2020 while the real number was -2.8%. Some years saw a bigger discrepancy; in 2019, the median prediction was 1.8%

Portfolio Management 59

Portfolio Management Budgeting Economics Portfolio 59

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 23, 2024

Beyond headline inflation, higher energy prices can even feed into core inflation numbers that the Fed typically focuses on. And if economic growth remains resilient, bond yields should not be moving lower. But mid- and small-cap stocks, which are even more geared to economic growth, outperformed.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 96