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10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture

Nvidia is not the first giant tech company to trade at a rich valuation. Irrelevant Investor ) see also “No matter how you cut it, you’ve got to own Cisco” (2000) 23 years ago, Fortune magazine’s cover story about networking gear maker Cisco was published. We can’t compare things to the future, so we look to the past.

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Bull Market Signposts: What Happens Before S&P 500 Peaks?

The Big Picture

She observes it is less about the things investors tend to focus on — “technical analysis, geopolitics, behavioral finance and even skirt hemline trends” — and more about specific measures she tracks in sentiment, valuation, macro-economic areas. The table above shows the major market peaks going back to 1990.

Marketing 195
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Round Trip

The Big Picture

but the giveback off the highs was substantial: S&P 500 was down ~23%, Russell 2000 was off 27%, and the Nasdaq 100 came down 32%. Recall John Kenneth Galbraith’s observation: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Blame whatever you want – Too far, too fast? End of ZIRP?

Economics 246
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Four Hard Investing Lessons From 2022 With Silver Linings

Validea

Even with bear markets like 2000-2002 and 2008-2009, the portfolio had strong returns for a very long period. While some of that outperformance was due to improving fundamentals and earnings, most of it the returns came from the valuation investors assigned to these stocks. Source: [link]. The yellow metal then saw two positive years.

Investing 128
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Small caps: Near-term risks vs. long-term potential

Nationwide Financial

The Russell 2000® Index (which tracks small-cap stock performance) was up only 0.44%. Are the Russell 2000’s weak returns a sign of slowing economic growth, or is the recent underperformance of small caps reflecting investor sentiment about current market opportunities? times earnings over the same period.

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Small Cap Value: Waiting for the Jumpstart

Validea

By Justin Carbonneau ( Twitter | LinkedIn | YouTube ) — Over the past few weeks, I’ve seen a number of charts highlighting the opportunity in small-cap stocks given their absolute and relative valuations. The chart below, also from our market valuation tool, compares small cap value to large cap growth stocks. Only 12.4%

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Smaller Stocks Are On A Winning Streak

Validea

With the Fed swiftly raising rates and the slowing of economic growth, small-cap stocks have gotten pummeled. The Russell 2000 has declined 32% from its November 2021 high through June 2022—worse than the S&P 500’s 24% drop. And the Russell 2000 is now up 14.3% from that June bottom, outperforming the S&P 500’s 12.6%