Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

This series started in December 2000. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Within separations, quits (4.1 million) changed little and layoffs and discharges (1.3 million) edged down.

Numbers 354

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 354

Calculated Risk

MARCH 8, 2023

This series started in December 2000. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Within separations, quits (3.9 million) decreased, while layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) increased. This is a measure of labor market turnover.

Numbers 349

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 349

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 3, 2024

This series started in December 2000. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) increased, but layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. Jobs openings increased in October to 7.74

Numbers 147

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2022

This series started in December 2000. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Within separations, quits (4.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) were little changed. This is a measure of labor market turnover.

Numbers 335

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 335

Calculated Risk

MAY 31, 2023

This series started in December 2000. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Within separations, quits (3.8 million) changed little, while layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) decreased. million from 9.7 million in March.

Numbers 333

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 333

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

optimisticallie.com) 42% of the Russell 2000 companies have negative earnings. awfulannouncing.com) Economy Is election uncertainty holding back the economy? ft.com) Immigration is making it harder to gauge the labor economy. (axios.com) The China stock market rally has gotten U.S. ETF investor attention.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Financial Advice Economy Media 264

Calculated Risk

JULY 6, 2023

This series started in December 2000. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Within separations, quits (4.0 million) increased, while layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. Jobs openings decreased in May to 9.8

Numbers 328

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 328

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 30, 2024

This series started in December 2000. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Within separations, quits (3.4 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. This is a measure of labor market turnover.

Numbers 311

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 311

Calculated Risk

APRIL 2, 2024

This series started in December 2000. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) changed little. This is a measure of labor market turnover.

Numbers 283

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 283

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 5, 2023

This series started in December 2000. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Within separations, quits (3.6 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. This is a measure of labor market turnover.

Numbers 301

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 301

Abnormal Returns

MAY 15, 2024

moneymarketing.co.uk) The Russell 2000 is a wonky index. ft.com) Economy The April CPI jumped by 0.3%. (wsj.com) Walmart ($WMT) is re-working its corporate staff. cnn.com) ETFs Active ETFs may be great for fund managers, but no so great for investors. bonddad.blogspot.com) How we measure OER is complicated.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Advertising Retail Media 278

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

When we look at the past century, we can see decades-long eras where the economy is generally robust, supporting markets trending higher, with expanding multiples. The best examples are 1946-66, 1982-2000, and 2013 forward. The counterargument is the spike in inflation has changed the dynamic of the economy.

Economy 328

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 328

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

Mortgage rates moved higher over the course of last week as markets continued to re-assess the prospects for the economy and the path of monetary policy, with expectations for short-term rates to move and stay higher for longer,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist.

Economy 353

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 353

Abnormal Returns

JULY 26, 2024

riabiz.com) The Russell 2000 is a flawed index. wsj.com) Economy The June PCE price index increased 2.5% economy is impressive. (safalniveshak.com) The small cap bounce back will make stock picking fun again. scheplick.com) Fund management Is Vanguard, and by extension Blackrock ($BLK), getting too big for its own good?

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Engineering Economy Numbers 264

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

However, they are significant — and rising rates this year have been a headwind for both equities and the economy. Alas, today’s inflation is 1) not like that of the 1970s; 2) the economy is nothing like the 1980s double-dip recession; and 3) Jerome Powell is no Paul Volcker. 1 and 2 are good, I suspect 3 is problematic.

Economy 312

Economy Taxes Marketing Marketing 312

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 25, 2023

He coined the term “K-shaped recovery” to describe the pandemic’s effects on the economy. Atwater coined the phrase “ K-Shaped Recovery ” to describe confidence-divide between the top and bottom of the economy post-pandemic. The work from home confidence divide was both revealed and amplified by the pandemic.

Economy 283

Economy Banking Economics Assets 283

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 25, 2025

It has been five years since the Covid-19 outbreak took hold of the global economy, sparking unprecedented volatility, massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, and a housing market that responded to national migratory changes in how we work and where we live, says Brian D. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. in December (SA).

Economy 147

Economy Accounting Assets Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

APRIL 4, 2023

This series started in December 2000. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Within separations, quits (4.0 million) edged up, while layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) decreased. This is a measure of labor market turnover.

Numbers 246

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 246

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. The 2000 crash was the worst of all of these: The Nasdaq plummeted 81% from peak to trough. My economic future was uncertain, but I felt confident I could make a go of it.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 5, 2024

ft.com) Two stocks accounted for a third of the Russell 2000's 5.2% wsj.com) Economy The March NFP report was 'uniformly positive.' Markets The global universe of public equities is shrinking. return in Q1. wsj.com) Magnificent Seven earning revisions are slowing. ft.com) Strategy Rebalancing isn't market timing.

Financial Advising 276

Financial Advising Advertising Media Economy 276

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

Year to date, the S&P 500 is down more than 23%; the Russell 2000 small caps are off more than 26%; Emerging markets are down almost 28%; and the Nasdaq Tech index is off more than 31%. Economy : GDP, Hiring & Wages, Consumer Spending, Industrial production, Home building, and on and on goes the list. Asset Economy.

Asset Allocation 342

Asset Allocation Financial Planning Assets Media 342

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 30, 2022

This series started in December 2000. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Within separations, quits (4.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.4 million) were little changed. This is a measure of labor market turnover.

Numbers 225

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 225

Abnormal Returns

MAY 1, 2023

capitalspectator.com) The Nasdaq 100 has outpaced the Russell 2000 by over 20% in 2023. etftrends.com) Economy Is the U.S. Markets How major asset classes performed in April 2023. twitter.com) Crypto Gary Gensler's SEC has been busy. investmentnews.com) Bitcoin transaction volume is on the rise. inventory drawdown finally over?

Financial Advising 244

Financial Advising Startup Banking Manufacturing 244

Calculated Risk

JULY 2, 2024

This series started in December 2000. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) changed little. This is a measure of labor market turnover.

Numbers 204

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 204

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2024

This series started in December 2000. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) changed little. This is a measure of labor market turnover.

Numbers 195

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 195

Abnormal Returns

MAY 18, 2024

semafor.com) Climate 2023 was the hottest summer in 2000 years. maddieburton.substack.com) Luxury hotels have rebounded better than economy hotels. (politico.com) Energy What happens you combine a green roof with solar panels? goodgoodgood.co) How China is encouraging battery recycling. arstechnica.com) U.S.

Financial Advising 288

Financial Advising Transportation Media Food 288

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 1, 2024

This series started in December 2000. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) continued to trend down and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. million from 7.71

Numbers 189

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 189

Calculated Risk

JULY 30, 2024

This series started in December 2000. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) changed little. This is a measure of labor market turnover.

Numbers 189

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 189

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2023

This series started in December 2000. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Within separations, quits (3.6 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) changed little. This is a measure of labor market turnover.

Numbers 200

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 200

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 10, 2022

Activity has now fallen in five of the last six weeks, as buyers remain on the sidelines due to still-challenging affordability conditions and doubts about the strength of the economy.” The refinance index is just above the lowest level since the year 2000. percent from 5.43 percent, with points increasing to 0.80

Economy 245

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 245

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 3, 2024

This series started in December 2000. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) edged down and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) changed little. million from 8.85 million in October.

Numbers 189

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 189

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. 18, 2023) The Annoyance Economy : Data alone don’t capture how frustrating and stressful it is to be a consumer right now. 2000-2003 Dotcom implosion 6. Heart disease is near the very bottom of coverage. Atlantic, Oct.

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

Calculated Risk

MARCH 6, 2024

This series started in December 2000. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Within separations, quits (3.4 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. This is a measure of labor market turnover.

Numbers 189

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 189

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2023

This series started in December 2000. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Within separations, quits (3.7 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) changed little. This is a measure of labor market turnover.

Numbers 182

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 182

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

As with the swings in rates and other uncertainties around the housing market and broader economy, mortgage applications increased for the first time in six weeks but remained well below last year’s levels, with purchase applications 30 percent lower and refinance activity down 83 percent. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Economy 239

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 239

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Mortgage rates declined last week as markets reacted to data showing a weakening economy and slowing wage growth. The previous week the refinance index was at the lowest level since the year 2000. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 47 percent compared with the previous week and was 44 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Government 233

Government Economy Marketing Marketing 233

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 29, 2022

The cost of owning a home with a mortgage is the most expensive since at least 2000. These economies continue to underperform, and we worry about significant out-migration and sustained population loss. If housing is weak for three years, expect the economy to be weak for three years as well. Meanwhile, housing is going to hell.

Sales 285

Sales Economics Consulting Economy 285