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My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Never Had a Chance Against Hard Math of the Market : In years like this one, when just a few big companies outperform, it’s hard to assemble a winning portfolio. 2000-2003 Dotcom implosion 6. Businessweek ) but see With cash earning 5%, why risk money on the stock market?
Even with that as a continued threat, evidence continues to mount that an ever-rising number of companies are starting to participate in the most hated bull market of my career. Do the Math Let’s do the math. Okay, let’s go there. How many companies in the Russell 3000 are up YTD? Let’s take a look.
In 2000, General Electric accounted for over 5% of the S&P 500 ( source ). The Math Behind the Growth Let’s take a step back and think about what it would take for a company like Apple to reach a $10 trillion market cap. In 2000, the total value of the US stock market was $15.1
Barry Ritholtz : The the funny thing is, the behavioral aspect of mutual funds seems to have been when people finally learn about a manager who’s put up great numbers, by the time it makes to make makes it to Forbes, hey, most of that run is probably over and a little mean reversion is about to kick in. I did it in 2000, 2002.
For example, if the house brings in $2000 per month ($24,000 each year) and the sale price is $240,000, the next investor is buying a business with a price-to-earnings ratio of 10, because 240k/24k=10. Its just basic math. But if you manage to convince someone to hand over $480,000 for that same house, youve sold at a P/E of 20.
Yields were kind of low in the mid 2000's before the financial crisis which was part of the story for why I started to use liquid alternatives (that term didn't exist yet), bond substitutes and bond proxies. I'm not sure how much fixed income that has equity beta should be in a portfolio but I don't think it's a high number.
In 2000, General Electric accounted for over 5% of the S&P 500 ( source ). The Math Behind the Growth Let’s take a step back and think about what it would take for a company like Apple to reach a $10 trillion market cap. In 2000, the total value of the US stock market was $15.1
People entering the workforce in 2000 were not the 401k guinea pigs. If at 35 or 40 some sort of financial calculator told you your "number" is $1,300,000 at age 65 and at 55 you have $275,000, there's a low probability of hitting your number. The number you anchored to when you were younger is essentially meaningless.
Subscribe now Share The Better Letter Get more from Bob Seawright in the Substack app Available for iOS and Android Get the app TRIGGER WARNING: I’m going to do some sports math nerding-out this week. Accordingly, the last 11 NFL MVPs have all been QBs (16 of the last 17; and 21 of 24 since 2000). After all, they had Mike Phipps.
I wasn’t that typical person that did a number of, you know, internships during the summer, had that …. I — I loved math, but really, I was going to go down that literature route more than anything else and — and study Spanish literature. One, we also saw a record number of credit card openings in Q1 and Q2.
As a matter of math, it cannot repeat the run from 8.5% It's not that 60/40, or some other combination of numbers is bad or dead, more like how we build the 40 or other number maybe needs to be different. In the 2000's, foreign outperformed and a large allocation to foreign was very important during that time.
Number one, a school district is a business. And number two, and I think that they were like, I’m sure there’s a note coming after this with a congressional allocation, and it never came. BRYANT: Number two, money is emotional. BRYANT: So money, unlike math, money is highly emotional. RITHOLTZ: Right.
ANAT ADMATI, PROFESSOR OF FIANCE AND ECONOMICS, STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS: So, my journey starts where I took a lot of math. I was good in math and I love the math. So, I was kind of, in my romantic mind when I was in my early 20s, I was going to take but not give back to math, that kind of thing.
So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math. You know, pure math can be very theoretical and detached from the real world, and it’s getting worse. Graham Foster] : 00:02:54 That was a number, that was number theory, pure number theory. It gets further and further away the D P U go.
Notably, between 2000 and 2016, U.S.-based But the activity gap has narrowed over the past five years, and a growing number of startups, patent filings and VC dollars are now driven by Chinese innovation. has commanded the majority of AI activity over the past two decades.
Notably, between 2000 and 2016, U.S.-based But the activity gap has narrowed over the past five years, and a growing number of startups, patent filings and VC dollars are now driven by Chinese innovation. has commanded the majority of AI activity over the past two decades.
00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. The Russell 2000 has 2000 out of the roughly 3,500 stocks available publicly traded.
SETHI: Well, everybody thought they were a genius including me in 1999, 2000. And they do that for 35 years tweaking numbers I go you won, you won the game. Number one, everybody has credit cards, everybody misunderstands how to use them, and there are actually some secret perks that people have no idea about. RITHOLTZ: Sure.
As I write this TBL, the S&P 500 is getting crushed and (using very rough numbers) is down 18 percent year-to-date. The Russell 2000 is off 21 percent. Based upon last week’s TBL , those hedge fund numbers sound high. Using very rough long-term return numbers (9.5% The Dow is down 8.5 I’ve had a few.
And it worked out and had multiple job offers coming out of school from a number of different insurance companies. I had a number of relationships that I built up and had another job lined up in New York City. DAVIS: So when we think about how those teams are evaluated, it’s a three-year number. So how did you perform?
Heather comes from with a fascinating background, having previously been in a number of other places, most notably Morningstar, and, and she has a very specific approach to investment management and thinking about stock selection. They do a number of things at Diamond Hill that many other investment shops don’t.
Or at least the top, pick a number, 30, 40%. You had the run up in the dot coms to 2000. I don’t remember the number. ” 29, 87, 74, just pick any 50 plus percent number and certainly 2000 and ’08, ’09, a major index gets cut in half. Less, 20, 30%? And what was his response? SEIDES: Yeah.
Some quick math for the value of your $10,000 after a certain number of years: 10 years: $20,000. Whatever fund you select will aim to mimic the returns of a specific market index, like the S&P 500 or Russell 2000 Index. Index funds are appealing to many investors because they expose you to a large number of stocks.
And then I developed this macro affinity starting in 2000, really? So that’s, that’s number one. Because the claims numbers were better. So that’s the math. I mean, 19 times, you know, next year’s numbers is, you know, which would be the end of the year is lower than what we’re trading today.
It’s fun math – a 20% drop in prices means you get 25% more shares for your dollar, and a 50% drop means twice as many , or 100% more shares per dollar invested.). It’d be like retiring at the bottom of 2009 with still-decent numbers. Which translates to a full 25% more wealth from those shares in your future. . (It’s
I mean, those were the — that’s what got people all excited and — RITHOLTZ: That’s venture capital numbers. KLINSKY: Well, that is — and it was kind of venture capital numbers because the dollars were so small. KLINSKY: That was a super hot theme in the year 1999 and 2000. RITHOLTZ: Right. KLINSKY: Right.
RITHOLTZ: There’s safety in numbers. For a lot of funds, the early 2000 saw a lot of opportunity in the distressed market and in other spaces. RITHOLTZ: The whole concept of whisper numbers, which we still use the phrase, but it doesn’t really exist anymore. The numbers are correct. MIELLE: Correct.
He’s crushed the Russell 2000, whatever benchmark you want to talk about. And I was a math nerd as a kid. And because my mother and grandmother were looking at these trying to figure out what was going on, I was curious about the sea of numbers. And 00:28:03 [Speaker Changed] That’s an amazing number.
And that’s, that’s the predecessor to Amherst, which we bought in 2000 and had been running it since then. So think about 2003 home prices had gone up a lot from 2000. So mortgage position in 2000 were way more valuable in 2003 than they were when they originated because they weigh less credit risk. Anything else?
You can use this in a number of ways. And that’s a pretty good number. That is incredibly painful period for our process that both this time, which I think we’re still in the midst of end ’99, 2000, we’ve more than recovered from the roundtrip. But it’s not necessarily timing actionable number.
1999, 2000, the internet was blowing up. The SNL crisis Tiger Chase had started, you know, in the wake of the internet melding down in 2000. 00:17:50 You wanna know why Dara reported for Uber that again, their number of employees was down quarter of over quarter. And that was 25 years ago. Sales centers are, are more productive.
Yet debt only fell once, in the year 2000, by 113.875 billion vs a purported budget surplus of $236.241 billion. That was in 2000. Those numbers are through 2021. 2022 Math The 2021 year end debt was $29.621 trillion. This is not a fiscal vs. calendar year distortion, but an ongoing deficit lie.
And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. You learn the math that can help you with, with market making operations. Honest back testing, really looking at the numbers versus exaggerating returns and, and making up the claim that something’s live when it’s not.
Really, the work he’s done on inequality came after the Nobel Prize based on a book him and his wife put out, and a number of papers. So when I was at this very fancy private school that I was at as a kid, I did math because it gave me a huge amount of free time to do the things I really cared about. Am I getting right?
. ~~~ This is Masters in business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio Barry Ritholtz : This weekend on the podcast, ed Hyman returns to talk about all things economic analysis, what’s going on in the world, how he’s built an incredible career, oh my God, 43 times number one ranked in the Institutional investor survey in economics.
NADIG: And trying to help people understand what that means for next week, and the next year, and the next decade, to position products underneath it, like ETFs in 1992, or model portfolios in 2000, or direct indexing in 2010. I have lots of different ways I can get that number to go up. It’s still a fairly small number.
It’s not because they’re not good enough at math. To narrow down the options, we systematically crunched the numbers to rank them all, and we bet the top spot will surprise you. To narrow down the options, we systematically crunched the numbers to rank them all, and we bet the top spot will surprise you.
I wasn’t really that interested, but I gutted through it and I started interviewing for the first internships, and I started, you know, I had a number of them. I started out math and, and physics, and in high school I was a rock star in math and physics. I had a number of other things as well.
In 2000, I mean, sorry, in 1980, I was 15 years old, I’m sneaking into comedy clubs watching, you know, Jim Carrey and Dave Thomas and, you know, like everybody could show up on a night. I mean, a lot of the best trades that Cramer did as a hedge fund manager, you know, tapping out before everything went to hell in 2000.
Behavioral finance has a number of fathers, including Dick Thor and, and Danny Kahneman. Colin Camerer : So I, some of it was when I was in college at Johns Hopkins, I, I studied physics and math. And number theory was just too mind blowing, you know, for me. The math doesn’t math. That was too abstract.
He was instrumental in getting a number of very positive policy actions passed over the past decade. I’ve interviewed a number of people from Revolution. The math never seems to work out. And that worked for a number of companies. So with no further ado, my conversation with Steve Case.
That’s why the markets are much more of a mind game than a math game. And that’s why markets will always be exceedingly hard, even when the math seems easy or the future seems certain. On average, the median Wall Street forecast from 2000 through 2023 missed its target by an astonishing 13.8 Stop with the math.`
RITHOLTZ: So wait, you’re, I’m trying to do the math, if you were 24 in ‘08, so you got this watch in 2000, 99? FOWLER: Yes, I was at LVMH for a number of years, mostly with Louis Vuitton for the first few years. When it comes to the complexities you are facing, it isn’t just about the numbers. FOWLER: Yes.
It’s sold ungodly numbers of copies, and is on everybody’s best finance books of all-time list. So this is after March of 2000, his famous op-ed “Big-Cap Tech Stocks are a Sucker’s Bet.”. In every recession, except one and that was the tech bust of 2000, the drawdown of REITs was greater than the S&P 500.
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