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My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Never Had a Chance Against Hard Math of the Market : In years like this one, when just a few big companies outperform, it’s hard to assemble a winning portfolio. If you’re depending on income to fund your retirement, 5% rates are a blessing. 2000-2003 Dotcom implosion 6.
But the numbers you can’t argue with, I mean, we all know that the brutal math of investing before costs investors collectively will earn the market return after costs. You, you wrote at the journal through the.com implosion as well as the whole runup to 2000 September 11th, the great financial Crisis. I did it in 2000, 2002.
The value of the S&P 500 index of stocks, where most of us hopefully have a good chunk of our retirement savings stashed into index funds, is up about fifty seven percent in just the past two years. Does this make it more vulnerable to a huge crash in the future, and will it affect my retirement? Its just basic math.
Bloomberg did a survey and found that Generation-X does not feel like it will be "financially prepared for retirement." Anyone closer to the younger edge of Gen-X could probably benefit by cutting expenses now, the impact of that could compound over the next 20+ years as they approach a normal retirement age.
My experience is that the typical retired person/couple expects growth in exchange for some volatility from the equity portion of their portfolio, they don't want it from their fixed income sleeve. The presence of lower yields, that yes kept going lower, turned bonds, as opposed to bills and some notes, into equity beta.
Barron's dusted off the retirement bucket playbook in an article while also arguing that a 5% withdrawal rate in retirement can now be considered safe versus the more common 4%. I might argue longer than two years considering the bear market from 2000 took 30 months to find a bottom. Always read the comments.
Bloomberg had an article titled As Gen-X Nears Retirement, Many Fear They Can't Afford It-Now or Ever. There was an odd and I believe inaccurate emphasis on workplace retirement plans pivoting from defined benefit plans (pensions) to defined contribution plans (401k) starting around the turn of the century. Probably not. Probably so.
There was a lot of content from various places over the weekend about whether it is time to go back into bonds, what retired investors should do for yield and even whether retirees are better off going 100% into equities. As a matter of math, it cannot repeat the run from 8.5% Barron's also noted that 60/40 was up 9.6% in November.
Let’s look at one tried-and-true way of multiplying your assets: retirement accounts. How to turn 10K into 100K through investing in retirement accounts. Although it may not sound glamorous, retirement accounts are a solid means of increasing your money. IRAs or Roth IRAs. without penalties. Similar to the 401(k) is a 403(b).
Even Mr. Money Mustache, as a person who retired 17 years ago, is still in this boat for the simple reason that my retirement income from dividends and hobby businesses is still greater than my annual living expenses (which still hover around $20,000 per year). 3) Okay, but I really am retired and trying to live off my investments now.
ANAT ADMATI, PROFESSOR OF FIANCE AND ECONOMICS, STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS: So, my journey starts where I took a lot of math. I was good in math and I love the math. So, I was kind of, in my romantic mind when I was in my early 20s, I was going to take but not give back to math, that kind of thing.
I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. And that a bit of that cult, Dick and Ike are both retired now. And I very much get the sense he has no interest in retiring. In 2000, right.
Subscribe now Share The Better Letter Get more from Bob Seawright in the Substack app Available for iOS and Android Get the app TRIGGER WARNING: I’m going to do some sports math nerding-out this week. Brady is now retired as a seven-time Super Bowl champion, five-time Super Bowl MVP, 15-time Pro Bowler, and three-time NFL MVP.
00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. People earn wages, whether it’s a retirement account or a tax deferred account or just an investment account.
The Russell 2000 is off 21 percent. Many – probably most – investors who cash out when negative volatility rears its ugly head will see their chances of investment and retirement success decrease significantly. The Dow is down 8.5 The Nasdaq is down a dreadful 31 percent. Negative volatility hurts. The saddest. The wildest.
I — I loved math, but really, I was going to go down that literature route more than anything else and — and study Spanish literature. BITTERLY MICHELL: … difficult situations for those who were retiring, right, and those …. RITHOLTZ: Applied Mathematics, Quants, those guys, yeah. BITTERLY MICHELL: … was — no, no.
And when you saw the US Ag down 13% last year, for folks, again, who are investing for retirement and in their 529 plans, they’re not concerned about it. But when you translate that to folks who might have a heavy municipal bond portfolio, and those folks who are in retirement, and they don’t like principal losses.
SETHI: Well, everybody thought they were a genius including me in 1999, 2000. RITHOLTZ: if you’re one latte away from your retirement being messed up you got bigger … SETHI: Bigger problems. RITHOLTZ: What are your thoughts on the early retirement fire movement? It’s much deeper than math. RITHOLTZ: Sure.
You had the run up in the dot coms to 2000. ” 29, 87, 74, just pick any 50 plus percent number and certainly 2000 and ’08, ’09, a major index gets cut in half. RITHOLTZ: So hold the duration risk aside with those two, but just for an investor in treasuries, I know you’ve done the math before.
I don’t even know what it’s going to be yet, but I mean, I’m not retiring. And then I developed this macro affinity starting in 2000, really? So that’s the math. And that’s why I always think about my life, which is the next thing I do is gonna be something totally different. 2009, 10 in that role.
He’s crushed the Russell 2000, whatever benchmark you want to talk about. And I was a math nerd as a kid. You’re 34th, you’re retiring after 34 years and you trounce what’s really the more appropriate benchmark, I would assume the Russell 2000. The s and p 500 has underperformed his fund by 3.7%
So you retire in 2018. For a lot of funds, the early 2000 saw a lot of opportunity in the distressed market and in other spaces. And not only that, Reg FD I think was implemented in 2000, but what happened was that with technology, the information became cheap and available to all of us, retail and institutional investors.
I will say when there were fewer firms, I was effectively — there had Ted and Nick Forstmann, Brian little had retired from the firm. KLINSKY: That was a super hot theme in the year 1999 and 2000. RITHOLTZ: So it’s different math then I need 100x winner versus 99? I was the next senior. KLINSKY: Yeah.
That is incredibly painful period for our process that both this time, which I think we’re still in the midst of end ’99, 2000, we’ve more than recovered from the roundtrip. If you’re anywhere from an individual to a pension fund, saying how much do I have to save to retire? For years, my dad, it was in spreadsheet.
Let Mr. Market do his thing and we’ll find out how we did when we get ready to retire. NADIG: And trying to help people understand what that means for next week, and the next year, and the next decade, to position products underneath it, like ETFs in 1992, or model portfolios in 2000, or direct indexing in 2010. NADIG: Yeah.
And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. You learn the math that can help you with, with market making operations. And I think that helped fuel the smart beta boom of the 2000 tens. It’s just not smart on a math basis to do that. And I just caught the bug.
I’d been ranked i i back in the seventies, if you can do the math. And like you mentioned, the smooth sailing in the 2000 tens 00:15:07 [Speaker Changed] Didn’t feel that way at the time. 00:19:54 [Speaker Changed] So you retired if it’s not working and you move on to the next that. So it’s all the same.
I started out math and, and physics, and in high school I was a rock star in math and physics. I, I remember my father-in-law saying to me back in like 2000, he had a bunch of NYC go bonds that were 15% when New York City was in trouble, right? He went through the math and I’m like, wow, that’s a great return.
RITHOLTZ: So wait, you’re, I’m trying to do the math, if you were 24 in ‘08, so you got this watch in 2000, 99? CLYMER: And I guarantee you when I retire from whatever this is, that’s the watch I will wear every day. He gave me his Omega Speedmaster, which is a really nice watch. RITHOLTZ: Right.
So this is after March of 2000, his famous op-ed “Big-Cap Tech Stocks are a Sucker’s Bet.”. In every recession, except one and that was the tech bust of 2000, the drawdown of REITs was greater than the S&P 500. Then 25 years after that, in 2000, well, we all know dot-com burst and then bust. You have to apply.
So, I did the math, 20 million times a hundred. So, let me just repeat the math. And so, again, I went through this simple math. When he came to power in year 2000, he wasn’t powerful like he is today. And so, it wasn’t just a fishing boat, it was an oceangoing factory, very impressive. They said, seven years.
Wasn’t the Excel spreadsheet error, which changed their math. He said he wanted at least 2000, 4,000. And he said it ought to be 2000. And he said, I want 2000 per the individual and 4,000 for family. My dad was in the military, so we lived all over the place. I mean that was, that was the problem.
I went there because I was fearful that being a professor would be like retiring in your 20s. SUNSTEIN: So back in 2000, I agreed to write a book for Princeton University Press called “Republic.com.” It’s a power law, this is very slightly technical for yours truly, the English major, not technical for you, the math guy.
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