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For example, if the house brings in $2000 per month ($24,000 each year) and the sale price is $240,000, the next investor is buying a business with a price-to-earnings ratio of 10, because 240k/24k=10. Its just basic math. But if you manage to convince someone to hand over $480,000 for that same house, youve sold at a P/E of 20.
I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. In 2000, right. But in extremis, which is the Microsoft and the Tonight 2000 example and maybe some other AI related stocks today, it really does matter.
Needless to say, when stocks are going straight up, some funky things happen to valuations. In a Howard Marks memo from January 2, 2000, he wrote "It is reported that the average new issue of 1999, which on average is probably about six months old, is selling roughly 160% above its issue price. The math on this one, wow.
But there’s always gotta be some element of the valuation really being compelling. But even in the book I wrote in 2014, you could see that the focus on competitive advantage can never be absolute, you always have to take valuation into consideration. But maybe second to valuation as a primary consideration.
00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. We built a company that was focused on valuation, initially, actually targeting corporate strategic planning departments.
He has a very interesting approach to thinking about market valuations and strategies and when to deploy capital, when to go with the crowd, when to lean against the crowd, and has amassed and excellent track record. And then I developed this macro affinity starting in 2000, really? Well, that means valuations are probably too high.
But the numbers you can’t argue with, I mean, we all know that the brutal math of investing before costs investors collectively will earn the market return after costs. You, you wrote at the journal through the.com implosion as well as the whole runup to 2000 September 11th, the great financial Crisis. I did it in 2000, 2002.
So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math. You know, pure math can be very theoretical and detached from the real world, and it’s getting worse. Some people look at a casino as entertainment and hey, we’re gonna spend X dollars, pick a number, 500, 2000, whatever it is.
DAVIS: Where international equities, because of valuations, probably 7% to 7.5%. RITHOLTZ: So let’s talk about that, because that gap in valuation has persisted for a long time. How durable is that shift, given how large that gap has gotten in valuation between US stocks and the rest of the developed world?
It’s fun math – a 20% drop in prices means you get 25% more shares for your dollar, and a 50% drop means twice as many , or 100% more shares per dollar invested.). But in the Mustachian Era (the years since 2011 when I started writing this blog ), there has only been one: the 2020 Covid Crash which only lasted about a month.
You had the run up in the dot coms to 2000. ” 29, 87, 74, just pick any 50 plus percent number and certainly 2000 and ’08, ’09, a major index gets cut in half. RITHOLTZ: So hold the duration risk aside with those two, but just for an investor in treasuries, I know you’ve done the math before.
He’s crushed the Russell 2000, whatever benchmark you want to talk about. And I was a math nerd as a kid. You’re 34th, you’re retiring after 34 years and you trounce what’s really the more appropriate benchmark, I would assume the Russell 2000. He has absolutely crushed his benchmark over that period.
That is incredibly painful period for our process that both this time, which I think we’re still in the midst of end ’99, 2000, we’ve more than recovered from the roundtrip. But plenty of valuation measures, it has no applicability for price-to-sales. My mom was a math teacher so — RITHOLTZ: Okay.
And that’s, that’s the predecessor to Amherst, which we bought in 2000 and had been running it since then. So think about 2003 home prices had gone up a lot from 2000. So mortgage position in 2000 were way more valuable in 2003 than they were when they originated because they weigh less credit risk. Anything else?
1999, 2000, the internet was blowing up. The SNL crisis Tiger Chase had started, you know, in the wake of the internet melding down in 2000. I I was speaking at the Javits Center, 2000 people in the audience. If you think back to 2000, Amazon was the disruptor to Walmart or to Macy’s. And that was 25 years ago.
And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. You learn the math that can help you with, with market making operations. And I think that helped fuel the smart beta boom of the 2000 tens. It’s just not smart on a math basis to do that. And I just caught the bug.
Literally the first check-in to Robinhood, which went public in 2021 at about a $34 billion valuation. In 2000, I mean, sorry, in 1980, I was 15 years old, I’m sneaking into comedy clubs watching, you know, Jim Carrey and Dave Thomas and, you know, like everybody could show up on a night. Is it about the valuation?
But thankfully, the next decade, things really accelerated in terms of the growth of the company and growth in the valuation, things like that. The math never seems to work out. So let’s circle back to 2000, the Time Warner-AOL deal goes through. We see it every time, some billionaires’ stadium gets paid for by taxpayers.
So this is after March of 2000, his famous op-ed “Big-Cap Tech Stocks are a Sucker’s Bet.”. In every recession, except one and that was the tech bust of 2000, the drawdown of REITs was greater than the S&P 500. Then 25 years after that, in 2000, well, we all know dot-com burst and then bust. You have to apply.
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