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Friday links: witnessing reality

Abnormal Returns

riabiz.com) The Russell 2000 is a flawed index. theverge.com) The number of AI models just keeps growing. ourworldindata.org) A growing number of Americans say they do not plan to have children. (safalniveshak.com) The small cap bounce back will make stock picking fun again. tomtunguz.com) Why do AI demos keep going wrong?

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US Equities: 9% Forever?

The Big Picture

It’s taken me months to organize all of my research for my next book project; it’s a lot of stuff, some dating back to 2000. Much of it reflects the bad ideas and numbers, and worse advice, that float around Wall Street. A lot of it has not aged well. The actual return was 15%.)”

Numbers 287
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Nobody Knows Anything, 2023 First Half Edition

The Big Picture

1 As of this moment, the indices stand appreciably higher than where they were on January 1, 2023: The NASDAQ 100 is up >38%, the S&P 500 is up ~15.5%, and the Russell 2000 small cap index is up almost 7%. These numbers would make for a respectable year much less half that time. Because almost nobody saw this rally coming.

Numbers 324
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BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 8.1 million in April

Calculated Risk

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings changed little at 8.1 Over the month, both the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 This series started in December 2000. The number of job openings (black) were down 19% year-over-year. million and 5.4

Numbers 131
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BLS: Job Openings "Little Unchanged" at 7.4 million in September

Calculated Risk

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 The number of total separations was unchanged at 5.2 This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers.

Numbers 76
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BLS: Job Openings Little Changed at 9.0 million in December

Calculated Risk

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings changed little at 9.0 Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 This series started in December 2000. The number of job openings (black) were down 20% year-over-year. million and 5.4 million from 8.93

Numbers 122
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How Many Bear Markets Have You Lived Through?

The Big Picture

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. 2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked.

Marketing 336