Calculated Risk

JANUARY 4, 2023

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 10.5 Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.1 This series started in December 2000. The number of job openings (black) were down 4% year-over-year. million and 5.9

Numbers 356

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 356

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NOVEMBER 1, 2022

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings increased to 10.7 The number of hires edged down to 6.1 This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. million) edged down.

Numbers 354

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 354

Calculated Risk

MARCH 8, 2023

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 10.8 Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.4 This series started in December 2000. The number of job openings (black) were down 6% year-over-year. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Numbers 349

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 349

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DECEMBER 3, 2024

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary the number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 The number of total separations was little changed at 5.3 This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers.

Numbers 147

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

MAY 31, 2023

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings edged up to 10.1 Over the month, the number of hires changed little at 6.1 This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers.

Numbers 333

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 333

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 289,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is up 48,000 properties year-over-year. in January compared to December and decreased 15% year-over-year. Black Knight reported the U.S.

Numbers 336

Numbers Sales Marketing Marketing 336

Calculated Risk

JULY 6, 2023

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 9.8 Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 6.2 This series started in December 2000. The number of job openings (black) were down 14% year-over-year. million and 5.9 million from 10.3

Numbers 328

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 328

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2022

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 10.1 This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. The number of job openings (black) were down 5% year-over-year.

Numbers 335

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 335

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 30, 2024

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings changed little at 9.0 Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 This series started in December 2000. The number of job openings (black) were down 20% year-over-year. million and 5.4 million from 8.93

Numbers 311

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 311

Calculated Risk

APRIL 2, 2024

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings changed little at 8.8 Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.8 This series started in December 2000. The number of job openings (black) were down 11% year-over-year. million and 5.6 million from 8.75

Numbers 283

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 283

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 5, 2023

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 8.7 Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 5.9 This series started in December 2000. The number of job openings (black) were down 17% year-over-year. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Numbers 301

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 301

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 29, 2024

This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. Once again - this probably shows the general trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. percent for rental housing and 1.0 in Q3, from 65.6%

Numbers 162

Numbers Media Sales 162

Calculated Risk

MAY 3, 2024

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was below expectations, and February and March payrolls were revised down by 22,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 million, changed little in April. million from 4.31

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

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JUNE 7, 2024

The headline jobs number in the May employment report was well above expectations, however March and April payrolls were revised down by 15,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, changed little in May. million from 4.47

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million, changed little in March. million from 4.36

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2024

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6 million in July. million from 4.22 million in June.

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

The Big Picture

MAY 6, 2024

It’s taken me months to organize all of my research for my next book project; it’s a lot of stuff, some dating back to 2000. Much of it reflects the bad ideas and numbers, and worse advice, that float around Wall Street. A lot of it has not aged well. The actual return was 15%.)”

Numbers 290

Numbers Investing Investments Marketing 290

The Big Picture

JUNE 30, 2023

1 As of this moment, the indices stand appreciably higher than where they were on January 1, 2023: The NASDAQ 100 is up >38%, the S&P 500 is up ~15.5%, and the Russell 2000 small cap index is up almost 7%. These numbers would make for a respectable year much less half that time. Because almost nobody saw this rally coming.

Numbers 325

Numbers Investing Investments Management 325

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2024

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 million in September. million a year earlier.

Numbers 306

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 306

Calculated Risk

APRIL 21, 2023

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 209,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is up 31,000 properties year-over-year. in Washington to 21.5%

Numbers 278

Numbers Sales Taxes 278

Calculated Risk

MAY 3, 2023

This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st, 1990, 2000 and 2010. Once again - this probably shows the general trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. National vacancy rates in the first quarter 2023 were 6.4

Numbers 310

Numbers Media 310

Calculated Risk

JUNE 26, 2023

Here is a mid-year look at four indicators: -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is at the median rate for the period 2000 through 2022 (Blue). I stopped the weekly updates of high frequency indicators at the end of 2022.

Transportation 352

Transportation Numbers Sales 352

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Continues to Climb in October he Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, improved 9.6% (2000=100) in October to 199.7 from the revised September reading of 182.2. Commercial planning was bolstered by a solid increase in office and hotel projects.

Healthcare 313

Healthcare Education Planning Economics 313

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2023

This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. Once again - this probably shows the general trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. percent for rental housing and 0.8 in Q3, from 65.9%

Numbers 302

Numbers Media 302

Abnormal Returns

JULY 26, 2024

riabiz.com) The Russell 2000 is a flawed index. theverge.com) The number of AI models just keeps growing. ourworldindata.org) A growing number of Americans say they do not plan to have children. (safalniveshak.com) The small cap bounce back will make stock picking fun again. tomtunguz.com) Why do AI demos keep going wrong?

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Engineering Economy Numbers 264

Calculated Risk

APRIL 4, 2023

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 9.9 Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.2 This series started in December 2000. The number of job openings (black) were down 14% year-over-year. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Numbers 246

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 6, 2023

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 119,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 million, changed little in September.

Numbers 312

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 312

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2023

percent – the highest rate since 2000,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “As The purchase market slowed to the lowest level of activity since 1995 , as the rapid rise in rates pushed an increasing number of potential homebuyers out of the market.

Numbers 336

Numbers Marketing Marketing 336

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2022

This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st, 1990, 2000 and 2010. Once again - this probably shows the general trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. National vacancy rates in the second quarter 2022 were 5.6

Numbers 299

Numbers Media 299

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8 million in August. This measure is up from 4.2

Numbers 277

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 277

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 21, 2022

to a single-month mortality (SMM) rate of 0.57% in September – below the recent record of 0.59% set in January 2019 – to the lowest level since November 2000 • The national delinquency rate inched down -0.2% in September compared to August and decreased 29% year-over-year. Black Knight reported the U.S.

Numbers 246

Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 25, 2023

Here is a late September look at four indicators: -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking just below last year, and slightly above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2022 (Blue). This data is as of September 24th.

Transportation 321

Transportation Numbers Sales 321

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down by 101,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million, changed little in October.

Retail 333

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 333

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 8, 2023

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was at expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 295,000 to 4.0 million in November.

Retail 317

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 317

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. 2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 22, 2022

to a single month mortality (SMM) rate of 0.40% – once again marking the lowest rate on record since before 2000 when Black Knight started reporting the metric • The national delinquency rate rose another 3.5% and Foreclosure Starts Bounce 19% • Prepayment activity in November dropped 15.6% Black Knight reported the U.S.

Numbers 246

Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

JULY 2, 2024

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings changed little at 8.1 Over the month, both the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.8 This series started in December 2000. The number of job openings (black) were down 13% year-over-year. million and 5.4

Numbers 204

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 204