Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 28, 2022

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, slumped 10.2% in September. Year-over-year, pending transactions slid by 31.0%.

Sales 346

Sales Marketing Marketing 346

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 30, 2024

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings advanced 2.2% in November. Year-over-year, pending transactions improved 6.9%. Mortgage rates have averaged above 6% for the past 24 months.

Sales 147

Sales Marketing Marketing 147

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 26, 2025

abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Revisiting the 2001 movie 'A.I. (abnormalreturns.com) You can now follow us on Bluesky. bsky.app) Are you signed up for daily e-mail newsletter? Well, you should. Artificial Intelligence' in the age of actual AI. spyglass.org) AI-generated images are driving hair stylists crazy.

Government 157

Government Manufacturing Media Taxes 157

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

Despite what you may have heard, the Fed isn’t the only factor driving equity markets.

Economy 312

Economy Taxes Marketing Marketing 312

Calculated Risk

JUNE 27, 2024

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – decreased to 70.8 Year over year, pending transactions were down 6.6%. Supply and demand movements suggest easing home price appreciation in upcoming months.

Sales 303

Sales Economy Marketing Marketing 303

Calculated Risk

JUNE 29, 2023

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – dropped 2.7% Year over year, pending transactions fell by 22.2%. The Northeast PHSI climbed 12.9% from last month to 66.7, a decrease of 21.9% from May 2022.

Sales 320

Sales Marketing Marketing 320

Calculated Risk

MARCH 28, 2024

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – increased to 75.6 in February. Year over year, pending transactions were down 7.0%. The Northeast PHSI decreased 0.3% from last month to 63.4, a decline of 9.0%

Sales 292

Sales 292

Calculated Risk

MARCH 29, 2023

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* — a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings — improved 0.8% in February. Year-over-year, pending transactions dropped by 21.1%.

Sales 312

Sales 312

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2024

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – increased to 77.3 in December. Year over year, pending transactions were up 1.3%. The Northeast PHSI dropped 3.0% from last month to 62.3, a decline of 3.9%

Sales 276

Sales 276

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 3, 2022

In March 2001, CPI ticked through the Fed’s 2% inflation target, and their reaction was. I don’t care what your personal theories on monetary policy might be, your thoughts on Milton Friedman, or who you plan on voting for next week. They remained on the emergency footing of zero.

Planning 317

Planning Marketing Marketing 317

Calculated Risk

APRIL 27, 2023

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) * – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – waned by 5.2% Year over year, pending transactions dropped by 23.2%.

Sales 279

Sales 279

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 22, 2022

Annual average gains: +6.6% (Avg 2001-2021). The actual data had some very interesting highlights, including some ginormous numbers: -Global Wealth: $463.6 trillion (end of 2021). Increase versus 2020: +9.8%. Aggregate global wealth: +12.7% (Fastest annual rate ever). Wealth per adult: $87,489. Real (inflation-adjusted) Wealth: +8.2%.

Distribution 331

Distribution Numbers Media Investing 331

Calculated Risk

MAY 30, 2024

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – decreased to 72.3 Year over year, pending transactions were down 7.4%. The Northeast PHSI fell 3.5% from last month to 62.9, a decline of 3.1% from April 2023.

Sales 217

Sales 217

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) — a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings — improved 8.1% in January. Year-over-year, pending transactions dropped by 24.1%. The Northeast PHSI rose 6.0% from last month to 68.7, a decline of 19.8%

Sales 246

Sales 246

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

Strong Recession Signal Since 1990, the spread between 30-month T-Bills and the 10-year Treasury Note was only more inverted ahead of the 2001 recession. Since 1990, the spread between 30-month T-Bills and the 30-year long bond has only been more inverted a couple of times. This is a very strong recession signal.

Retirement 263

Retirement Economy Marketing Marketing 263

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 27, 2023

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) — a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings — improved 2.5% in December. Year-over-year, pending transactions dropped by 33.8%.

Sales 246

Sales Marketing Marketing 246

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, fell 2.0% Year-over-year, pending transactions dwindled by 24.2%.

Sales 245

Sales Economy 245

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 30, 2023

in October, the lowest number since the index was originated in 2001. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – dropped 1.5% Year over year, pending transactions declined 8.5%. from last month to 64.8,

Numbers 173

Numbers Sales 173

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 17, 2023

Rates Mortgage rates are at levels not seen since 2001. axios.com) Global government bond yields are at 15-year highs. finance.yahoo.com) Markets Valuations don't matter in the short term. theirrelevantinvestor.com) Forecasting is hard, the GMO edition. ft.com) Companies Verily is setting the stage for a spinoff from Alphabet ($GOOGL).

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Valuation Manufacturing Government 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2024

in June to the highest level since 2001. Earlier: July Employment Report: 114 thousand Jobs, 4.3% The 25 to 54 years old participation rate increased in July to 84.0% from 83.7% The 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.9% from 80.8% the previous month.

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

Calculated Risk

JULY 27, 2022

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, dipped 8.6% Year-over-year, transactions shrank 20.0%.

Sales 244

Sales 244

Calculated Risk

APRIL 11, 2023

Unfortunately, this data only goes back to 1992 and includes only three recessions (the stock / tech bust in 2001, and the housing bust/financial crisis, and the 2020 pandemic). Unemployment by Education This graph shows the unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older). in March.

Education 246

Education Manufacturing Numbers 246

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 10, 2023

Unfortunately, this data only goes back to 1992 and includes only three recessions (the stock / tech bust in 2001, and the housing bust/financial crisis, and the 2020 pandemic). The first graph shows the unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older) through January 2023. in January.

Education 245

Education 245

MarketWatch

JANUARY 31, 2023

stocks finished in the green on Tuesday as the Nasdaq cemented its best January performance since 2001 amid a broad-based rally in equities that saw some of 2022’s worst performers take the lead. The S&P 500 SPX gained 58.83 points, or about 1.5%, to finish January at 4,076.60, a gain of 6.2% for the month, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Media 75

Media Communication Numbers Economics 75

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 28, 2023

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – sank 7.1% Year over year, pending transactions fell by 18.7%. The Northeast PHSI declined 0.9% from last month to 62.6, a reduction of 18.2% from August 2022.

Sales 211

Sales Budgeting 211

Calculated Risk

APRIL 29, 2024

As is the increase in energy prices during the 2001 through 2008 period. In general, energy expenditures as a percent of PCE has been trending down for decades. The huge spikes in energy prices during the oil crisis of 1973 and 1979 are obvious. In August March 2024, energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE were at 4.1% in June 2022.

182

182

Calculated Risk

APRIL 25, 2024

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – increased to 78.2 Year over year, pending transactions were up 0.1%. The Northeast PHSI increased 2.7% from last month to 65.1, a decline of 0.3% from March 2023.

Sales 182

Sales 182

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 24, 2022

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. "In The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, slid 1.0% Year-over-year, pending transactions sank 19.9%. This month's very modest decline reflects the recent retreat in mortgage rates.

Sales 221

Sales 221

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 20, 2024

Before establishing SVP in 2001, Victor served as President of Cerberus Capital.  This week, we speak with Victor Khosla, Founder and CIO of Strategic Value Partners. In the 1990s, he built and managed the distressed credit desk at both Citi and Merrill Lynch, establishing two of the top proprietary trading businesses.

Economy 189

Economy Management Investing Investments 189

The Big Picture

MARCH 15, 2023

563rd US bank failure since 2001 Source: Jim Reid, DB Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here. Bernstein was named to the Institutional Investor’s “All-America Research Team” 18 times and has been inducted into the Institutional Investor “Hall of Fame.” He is the author of “ Navigate the Noise: Investing in the New Age of Media and Hype.”

Banking 298

Banking Food Startup Media 298

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 2, 2023

As is the increase in energy prices during the 2001 through 2008 period. In general, energy expenditures as a percent of PCE has been trending down for decades. The huge spikes in energy prices during the oil crisis of 1973 and 1979 are obvious. In August 2023, energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE were at 4.3% of PCE, up from 4.1%

182

182

Calculated Risk

MAY 25, 2023

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – remained at 78.9 in April, posting no change from the previous month. Year over year, pending transactions dropped by 20.3%.

Sales 195

Sales 195

Calculated Risk

JULY 31, 2024

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – grew to 74.3 Y ear over year, pending transactions were down 2.6%. Multiple offers are less intense, and buyers are in a more favorable position.".

Sales 173

Sales 173

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

For review, here is a table of the annual change in total nonfarm, private and public sector payrolls jobs since 1997.

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

The Big Picture

MAY 8, 2023

The prime-age employment population ratio rose to the highest level since 2001 Source: @danielbzhao Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here. He is a member of the Management Committee and Co-Chair of the Asset Management Investment Committees, (private equity, infrastructure, growth equity, credit, and real estate).

Digital Media 246

Digital Media Media Wealth Management Assets 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 28, 2023

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – stayed at 71.6 in November. Year over year, pending transactions were down 5.2%. The Northeast PHSI rose 0.8% from last month to 64.4, a drop of 6.4%

Sales 173

Sales 173

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 28, 2022

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* — a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings — fell 4.0% in November. Year-over-year, pending transactions dropped by 37.8%. The Northeast PHSI slipped 7.9% from last month to 63.3, a drop of 34.9%

Sales 189

Sales Numbers Economics 189