Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

Strong Recession Signal Since 1990, the spread between 30-month T-Bills and the 10-year Treasury Note was only more inverted ahead of the 2001 recession. Since 1990, the spread between 30-month T-Bills and the 30-year long bond has only been more inverted a couple of times. This is a very strong recession signal.

Retirement 263

Retirement Economy Marketing Marketing 263

Calculated Risk

JULY 5, 2024

in May to the highest level since 2001. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in June to 4.22 Earlier: June Employment Report: 206 thousand Jobs, 4.1% from 83.6%

Numbers 211

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 211

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 28, 2022

"Falling home sales and construction have hurt broader economic activity." An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* — a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings — fell 4.0% in November. Year-over-year, pending transactions dropped by 37.8%.

Sales 189

Sales Numbers Economics 189

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 26, 2022

percent, the highest rate since 2001. Added Kan, “MBA’s forecast expects both economic and housing market weakness in 2023 to drive a 3 percent decline in purchase originations, while refinance volume is anticipated to decline by 24 percent. Mortgage rates increased for the 10th consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate reaching 7.16

Economics 211

Economics Marketing Marketing 211

MarketWatch

JANUARY 31, 2023

stocks finished in the green on Tuesday as the Nasdaq cemented its best January performance since 2001 amid a broad-based rally in equities that saw some of 2022’s worst performers take the lead. economic growth remained robust to finish off last year, with the advance reading on fourth-quarter GDP released last week showed growth of 2.9%

Media 75

Media Communication Numbers Economics 75

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% The "Art of the Soft Landing" requires that the Fed reduce rates quick enough to keep economic growth positive, and slow enough not to reignite inflation.

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investments 200

Trade Brains

DECEMBER 28, 2023

Unusual Economic Indicators : You might have heard about indicators like the Big Mac Index (if you haven’t, you can read our previous article). Today, we’ll introduce you to some unusual economic indicators that might predict the economic conditions. Most Unusual Economic Indicators 1. What is it? What is the proof?

Economy 64

Economy Economics Sales Government 64

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

Besides 2022, recent examples include 2018, 2000, and 2002 (the recession was in 2001). 550bps increases in the Federal Funds rate from March 2022 through July 2023 – and its long and variable lags – continues to exert a drag on the economy, which could lead to further economic contraction.

Economy 331

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 331

Advisor Perspectives

JANUARY 4, 2024

The key economic question for 2024 is how to think about the interest rate cuts we’re likely to get from the Federal Reserve. Are they good news for the economy as borrowers catch a break, or a sign of impending recession as they were in 2001 and 2007?

Economics 52

Economics Economy 52

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

The two main exceptions are 2001 and 2020 where IP was in a long slowdown before recession hit. In 1990 IP peaked one month after recession started and in 1980 IP peaked at the start of the recession. Twice the lead time was a month and twice it was two months. Currently, IP hit a peak in September and manufacturing in October.

Manufacturing 130

Manufacturing Numbers Economics 130

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 23, 2023

The tone of economic data has shifted, with releases increasingly disappointing relative to expectations. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has fallen to -19 after being above neutral since September, though the European ESI is at the best level since mid-2021. Sales rose 6% from a year ago, which lagged the pace of inflation.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Economics Economy 105

Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 20, 2023

Even with a dour long term economic outlook, consumers should continue to spend as long as the labor market remains tight. Retail sales surged in January, joining the recent wave of economic indicators suggesting economic activity sped up at the outset of the year. percent) and the core reading (+0.4 percent overall and 5.6

Economics 52

Economics Economy Retail Sales 52

Nationwide Financial

MAY 4, 2023

Tighter monetary policy has helped bring inflation down somewhat from its peak last June, with the expected consequence of slowing economic growth as seen in the Q1 GDP report. Nationwide Economics expects the Fed’s recent quarter-point hike to be the last tightening move for the current cycle.

Economics 75

Economics Banking Retirement Financial Market 75

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

If the Fed starts cutting rates, like it did in 2020, or like it did in 2008, or like it did even in 2001, and it’s a panic. “ And, and because it is projecting a recession, which means less economic activity, lower earnings, it’s usually a difficult period for risk markets like the stock market or real estate prices and the like.

Numbers 288

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 288

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 19, 2023

Since 1995, there are four rather distinct periods during which forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500 Index declined, tied to a specific event and/or economic downturn. Further, stock markets tend historically to move in advance of changes in economic activity or earnings trajectory, not in response to those changes.

Clients 98

Clients Economy Economics Marketing 98

Trade Brains

APRIL 30, 2024

And on the other hand, we have Harshad Mehta and Ketan Parekh who not only ruled the stock markets but were also found guilty of economic crimes. The SEBI in April 2001 reported that he had an outstanding amount to large corporates worth Rs. He also siphoned off money outside the country too. billion and to MMCB Rs. 400 billion.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Banking Management 105

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 23, 2024

If they are cutting due to a panic (think March 2020) or due to a recession (like in 2001 or 2007) potential trouble could indeed be lurking. Yes, 2001 and 2007 are in there, as you’ve probably heard many times the past week if you’ve watched financial media at all. First things first, why are they cutting? on average.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 96

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

The prime-age (25-54) employment-population ratio, which is a way of controlling for demographic effects and labor force participation issues, is 80.5% exactly where it was a year ago, and higher than at any point between May 2001 and December 2019. If the labor market stabilizes here, thats a pretty good place.

Marketing 68

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 68

Nationwide Financial

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

Beyond the economic and earnings slowdown, investors also face several technical factors that will impact near-term returns. Share repurchases enter a blackout period, impacting demand for shares at a time when fund managers are holding their largest cash levels since 2001. growth in the quarter versus 1.3% headwind, per Strategas.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economics Banking 52

The Irrelevant Investor

MARCH 3, 2020

Prior to that the Fed took these measures in 2001 and 1998. I don't understand how lowering rates by 50 bps, from already low levels to ridiculously low levels, is going to stop whatever economic impacts that we'll feel from the global slowdown. You could tell by my reaction that I was not too enthusiastic about the Fed's decision.

Economics 52

Economics Marketing Marketing 52

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 7, 2024

That’s higher than anything we saw between 2001 and 2019 (when it peaked at 80.4%). If you’re wondering why economic growth keeps exceeding a lot of people’s expectations, especially after recent upward revisions, here’s why: Income growth is powering the economy, as opposed to credit. in September. But Can We Believe the Data?

Marketing 95

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 95

Carson Wealth

JUNE 10, 2024

That’s only slightly below the high from last summer, and above anything we saw between 2001 and 2019 (when it peaked at 80.4%). The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually measures this, via a metric called “part-time employment for economic reasons.” in April, and it rose to a new record of 75.7%

Marketing 142

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 142

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

JANUARY 26, 2024

As we are now a decade and a half removed from that economic meltdown, I feel that a bit of reflection is in order. Did that period of time, albeit historic in many ways, usher in an actual “new normal” or was it simply an atypical period within an otherwise normal 50-year economic period.

Marketing 74

Marketing Marketing Financial Advisor Economics 74

Getting Your Financial Ducks In A Row

OCTOBER 17, 2022

The Economic Recovery Tax Act (ERTA) of 1981 allowed for the IRA to become universally available as a savings incentive to all workers under age 70 1/2. Contributions continued to rise steadily, amounting to $4.8 billion by 1981. At that time, the annual contribution limit was also increased to $2,000 or 100% of compensation.

Retirement 90

Retirement Distribution Taxes Retirement Planning 90

Carson Wealth

JULY 8, 2024

That’s only slightly below the high from last summer, and above anything we saw between 2001 and 2019 (when it peaked at 80.4%). This is why the Federal Reserve needs to act and pull back on their economic brake pedal, i.e. high interest rates. The prime-age employment population ratio was unchanged at 80.8%

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 97

Validea

AUGUST 5, 2022

With the Fed swiftly raising rates and the slowing of economic growth, small-cap stocks have gotten pummeled. That’s positive news for small-caps, especially as the pattern of underperforming before a recession and outperforming as a recession wanes is one that small-caps have followed in 1990, 2001, 2008, and 2020.

Valuation 59

Valuation Manufacturing Economics Sales 59

The Better Letter

MARCH 27, 2025

If there’s one thing we know about economics (and it applies much more broadly, of course), it’s that incentives work. 2 Using the same Hawk-Eye camera technology professional tennis has used to determine line calls for over 20 years, first used in 2001, for cricket matches. Larry Vanover was the worst, at 92.1

Accounting 60

Accounting Food Retirement Electronics 60

Mauldin Economics

JUNE 9, 2021

Peter, who is the author of The Boock Report , in which he flash-analyzes the latest economic data in handy bite-size multiple emails per day, makes an important distinction between goods inflation and services inflation. And for the last year or so, he’s felt an inflationary heartbeat. How do we explain this discrepancy?

Transportation 52

Transportation Food Electronics Healthcare 52

Trade Brains

APRIL 24, 2023

Many factors like economic needs, technological advancement, and beneficial decisions taken by the government are helping to boost this industry. About 173 stocks have given over 10 times the returns between January 2001 and December 2019. In 2001 its price was 0.50 Which industry will boom in the future in India?

Manufacturing 98

Manufacturing Food Pharmaceutical Investments 98

The Big Picture

JUNE 7, 2023

They have economics. And 70 percent of the economics of the alpha that has been generated will flow to the investors and 30 percent will accrue to the manager. Then we get into the setting up an economic structure which is going to be attractive to your investment staff. What is that economic trajectory look like with success?

Management 277

Management Investments Investing Economics 277

Nationwide Financial

MAY 8, 2023

The FOMC voted to raise the Fed Funds target rate by 0.25% to 5.25%, matching the highest level since 2001 and the most rapid tightening path since 1980. Job openings fell below 10 million for the first time in two years at 9.6 million, though it remains well above the 5.6 million unemployed persons. labor market remained tight.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Banking Economics 52

Carson Wealth

JUNE 12, 2023

Carson’s leading economic index indicates the economy is not in a recession. Our Leading Economic Index (LEI) Says the Economy is Not in a Recession We have long believed the economy can avoid a recession this year, as we wrote in our 2023 outlook. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2001 and 2008 recessions.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Manufacturing 52

Nationwide Financial

OCTOBER 17, 2022

This, along with fund manager cash being at the highest since 2001, drove the sharp recovery, and reflect the potential for upside to expectations. Economic data include industrial production on Tuesday, housing starts and the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday, and existing home sales and leading indicators on Thursday. next year and 4.1%

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Retail Banking 52

Carson Wealth

MARCH 11, 2024

to 80.7%, which is higher than at any point between July 2001 and February 2020. That’s a solid foundation for additional economic gains that ultimately could push stock prices higher. It’s a more straightforward measure, which indicates how many people in their prime working years are employed relative to the population.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Retirement 96

Nationwide Financial

OCTOBER 24, 2022

Institutional investors remain at historic levels of defensiveness, with cash levels (6.3%) at the highest level since 2001, and the underweight to equities is at three standard deviations per Bank of America data. The most crowded trades are long the U.S. dollar, short E.U. equities, and long ESG assets. What to Watch.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Manufacturing Financial Market 52

The Irrelevant Investor

JULY 3, 2019

History books will describe the last ten years as "a period of moderate economic growth on the back of accommodative central bank policy." The best period using this metric was 1991-2001,which experienced a max drawdown of 19.3% The Dow gained 8% from 1966-1982. This tells you very little of what actually happened.

Numbers 52

Numbers Banking Marketing Marketing 52

Carson Wealth

MAY 22, 2023

Economic data continues to come in strong, including for retail sales and vehicle production. Housing starts and permits data are turning around as builders become more confident about the economic outlook. Housing may no longer be a drag on economic growth the rest of this year. The housing market is showing signs of recovery.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52