Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2024

in June to the highest level since 2001. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.57 Earlier: July Employment Report: 114 thousand Jobs, 4.3%

Numbers 126

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 126

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

Strong Recession Signal Since 1990, the spread between 30-month T-Bills and the 10-year Treasury Note was only more inverted ahead of the 2001 recession. Since 1990, the spread between 30-month T-Bills and the 30-year long bond has only been more inverted a couple of times. This is a very strong recession signal.

Retirement 263

Retirement Economy Marketing Marketing 263

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

And it was a miserable economic time, with both of these elevated measures together creating a period of unhappy people that the Misery index neatly captured. As Zunbrun observes, “ The Misery Index, as commonly constructed, doesn’t adequately capture how overall economic conditions affect attitudes.”. Should it be? 46, October 2014).

Economics 322

Economics Budgeting Taxes Economy 322

Nationwide Financial

MAY 4, 2023

Tighter monetary policy has helped bring inflation down somewhat from its peak last June, with the expected consequence of slowing economic growth as seen in the Q1 GDP report. Nationwide Economics expects the Fed’s recent quarter-point hike to be the last tightening move for the current cycle.

Economics 75

Economics Banking Retirement Financial Market 75

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 23, 2024

If they are cutting due to a panic (think March 2020) or due to a recession (like in 2001 or 2007) potential trouble could indeed be lurking. Yes, 2001 and 2007 are in there, as you’ve probably heard many times the past week if you’ve watched financial media at all. First things first, why are they cutting? on average.

Marketing 92

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 92

Calculated Risk

JULY 5, 2024

in May to the highest level since 2001. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in June to 4.22 Earlier: June Employment Report: 206 thousand Jobs, 4.1% from 83.6%

Numbers 83

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 83

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

The two main exceptions are 2001 and 2020 where IP was in a long slowdown before recession hit. In 1990 IP peaked one month after recession started and in 1980 IP peaked at the start of the recession. Twice the lead time was a month and twice it was two months. Currently, IP hit a peak in September and manufacturing in October.

Manufacturing 130

Manufacturing Numbers Economics 130

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2024 and a few predictions: • Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2023. million to 1.5

Economy 117

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 117

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 23, 2023

The tone of economic data has shifted, with releases increasingly disappointing relative to expectations. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has fallen to -19 after being above neutral since September, though the European ESI is at the best level since mid-2021. Sales rose 6% from a year ago, which lagged the pace of inflation.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Economics Economy 105

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 28, 2022

"Falling home sales and construction have hurt broader economic activity." An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* — a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings — fell 4.0% in November. Year-over-year, pending transactions dropped by 37.8%.

Sales 73

Sales Economics Numbers 73

Nationwide Financial

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

Beyond the economic and earnings slowdown, investors also face several technical factors that will impact near-term returns. Share repurchases enter a blackout period, impacting demand for shares at a time when fund managers are holding their largest cash levels since 2001. growth in the quarter versus 1.3% headwind, per Strategas.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economics Banking 52

Trade Brains

APRIL 30, 2024

And on the other hand, we have Harshad Mehta and Ketan Parekh who not only ruled the stock markets but were also found guilty of economic crimes. The SEBI in April 2001 reported that he had an outstanding amount to large corporates worth Rs. He also siphoned off money outside the country too. billion and to MMCB Rs. 400 billion.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Banking Management 105

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 19, 2023

Since 1995, there are four rather distinct periods during which forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500 Index declined, tied to a specific event and/or economic downturn. Further, stock markets tend historically to move in advance of changes in economic activity or earnings trajectory, not in response to those changes.

Clients 98

Clients Economy Economics Investing 98

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% The "Art of the Soft Landing" requires that the Fed reduce rates quick enough to keep economic growth positive, and slow enough not to reignite inflation.

Economy 78

Economy Sales Economics Investing 78

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 26, 2022

percent, the highest rate since 2001. Added Kan, “MBA’s forecast expects both economic and housing market weakness in 2023 to drive a 3 percent decline in purchase originations, while refinance volume is anticipated to decline by 24 percent. Mortgage rates increased for the 10th consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate reaching 7.16

Economics 83

Economics Marketing Marketing 83

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 and a few predictions: • Question #2 for 2023: How much will job growth slow in 2023? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5

Economy 93

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 93

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

Besides 2022, recent examples include 2018, 2000, and 2002 (the recession was in 2001). 550bps increases in the Federal Funds rate from March 2022 through July 2023 – and its long and variable lags – continues to exert a drag on the economy, which could lead to further economic contraction.

Economy 329

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 329

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 7, 2024

That’s higher than anything we saw between 2001 and 2019 (when it peaked at 80.4%). If you’re wondering why economic growth keeps exceeding a lot of people’s expectations, especially after recent upward revisions, here’s why: Income growth is powering the economy, as opposed to credit. in September. But Can We Believe the Data?

Marketing 91

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 91

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

JANUARY 26, 2024

As we are now a decade and a half removed from that economic meltdown, I feel that a bit of reflection is in order. Did that period of time, albeit historic in many ways, usher in an actual “new normal” or was it simply an atypical period within an otherwise normal 50-year economic period.

Marketing 74

Marketing Marketing Financial Advisor Economics 74

The Irrelevant Investor

MARCH 3, 2020

Prior to that the Fed took these measures in 2001 and 1998. I don't understand how lowering rates by 50 bps, from already low levels to ridiculously low levels, is going to stop whatever economic impacts that we'll feel from the global slowdown. You could tell by my reaction that I was not too enthusiastic about the Fed's decision.

Economics 52

Economics Marketing Marketing 52

Validea

AUGUST 5, 2022

With the Fed swiftly raising rates and the slowing of economic growth, small-cap stocks have gotten pummeled. That’s positive news for small-caps, especially as the pattern of underperforming before a recession and outperforming as a recession wanes is one that small-caps have followed in 1990, 2001, 2008, and 2020.

Valuation 59

Valuation Manufacturing Economics Sales 59

Carson Wealth

JULY 8, 2024

That’s only slightly below the high from last summer, and above anything we saw between 2001 and 2019 (when it peaked at 80.4%). This is why the Federal Reserve needs to act and pull back on their economic brake pedal, i.e. high interest rates. The prime-age employment population ratio was unchanged at 80.8%

Marketing 94

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 94

Carson Wealth

JUNE 12, 2023

Carson’s leading economic index indicates the economy is not in a recession. Our Leading Economic Index (LEI) Says the Economy is Not in a Recession We have long believed the economy can avoid a recession this year, as we wrote in our 2023 outlook. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2001 and 2008 recessions.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Manufacturing 52

Nationwide Financial

MAY 8, 2023

The FOMC voted to raise the Fed Funds target rate by 0.25% to 5.25%, matching the highest level since 2001 and the most rapid tightening path since 1980. Job openings fell below 10 million for the first time in two years at 9.6 million, though it remains well above the 5.6 million unemployed persons. labor market remained tight.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Banking Economics 52

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

If the Fed starts cutting rates, like it did in 2020, or like it did in 2008, or like it did even in 2001, and it’s a panic. “ And, and because it is projecting a recession, which means less economic activity, lower earnings, it’s usually a difficult period for risk markets like the stock market or real estate prices and the like.

Numbers 283

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 283

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 9, 2024

The good news is that the preponderance of economic data clearly tells us we’re not in a recession right now. That’s higher than anything we saw between 2001 and 2019 (when it peaked at 80.4%). It’s correctly indicated every recession since 1970. The bad news is that the Sahm Rule triggered in July and remains triggered in August.

Marketing 59

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 59

Nationwide Financial

OCTOBER 17, 2022

This, along with fund manager cash being at the highest since 2001, drove the sharp recovery, and reflect the potential for upside to expectations. Economic data include industrial production on Tuesday, housing starts and the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday, and existing home sales and leading indicators on Thursday. next year and 4.1%

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Retail Banking 52

Mauldin Economics

JUNE 9, 2021

Peter, who is the author of The Boock Report , in which he flash-analyzes the latest economic data in handy bite-size multiple emails per day, makes an important distinction between goods inflation and services inflation. And for the last year or so, he’s felt an inflationary heartbeat. How do we explain this discrepancy?

Transportation 52

Transportation Food Electronics Healthcare 52

Carson Wealth

MAY 22, 2023

Economic data continues to come in strong, including for retail sales and vehicle production. Housing starts and permits data are turning around as builders become more confident about the economic outlook. Housing may no longer be a drag on economic growth the rest of this year. The housing market is showing signs of recovery.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

Nationwide Financial

OCTOBER 24, 2022

Institutional investors remain at historic levels of defensiveness, with cash levels (6.3%) at the highest level since 2001, and the underweight to equities is at three standard deviations per Bank of America data. The most crowded trades are long the U.S. dollar, short E.U. equities, and long ESG assets. What to Watch.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Manufacturing Financial Market 52

Getting Your Financial Ducks In A Row

OCTOBER 17, 2022

The Economic Recovery Tax Act (ERTA) of 1981 allowed for the IRA to become universally available as a savings incentive to all workers under age 70 1/2. Contributions continued to rise steadily, amounting to $4.8 billion by 1981. At that time, the annual contribution limit was also increased to $2,000 or 100% of compensation.

Retirement 117

Retirement Distribution Taxes Retirement Planning 117

Carson Wealth

JUNE 10, 2024

That’s only slightly below the high from last summer, and above anything we saw between 2001 and 2019 (when it peaked at 80.4%). The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually measures this, via a metric called “part-time employment for economic reasons.” in April, and it rose to a new record of 75.7%

Marketing 140

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 140

James Hendries

JUNE 20, 2023

That’s not suggesting another 2008 is coming, but rather highlights how fast the economic environment can change. Along with the statement, the Committee updated the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which is arguably more important than the brief monetary policy statement.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Communication 52

Carson Wealth

MARCH 11, 2024

to 80.7%, which is higher than at any point between July 2001 and February 2020. That’s a solid foundation for additional economic gains that ultimately could push stock prices higher. It’s a more straightforward measure, which indicates how many people in their prime working years are employed relative to the population.

Marketing 93

Marketing Marketing Economy Retirement 93

Trade Brains

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

Techknowgreen Solutions IPO Review: About the Company Techknowgreen Solutions Limited was incorporated in 2001, it is an environment consulting firm that provides environment consulting services. In this article, we will look at Techknowgreen Solutions IPO Review, analyze its strengths and weaknesses and see what unfolds.

Consulting 59

Consulting Compliance Government Clients 59

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

With a series of important economic indicators suggesting the economy is declining and inflation is finally decelerating, albeit very slowly, markets are beginning to factor in that the Fed may soon transition to a less aggressive stance in early 2023. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Manufacturing Economy 52

Carson Wealth

APRIL 10, 2023

Stocks were relatively flat last week in the face of weak economic data. Still, in the face of slowing economic reports, we were impressed stocks were able to hold onto some gains. The measure rose to 80.7%, which is the highest level since 2001 and a sign that this is a strong labor market.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Banking 52