Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 Or will the economy lose jobs? If the Fed drives the economy into recession (to cool inflation), then we could see job losses in 2023.

Economy 92

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 92

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 12, 2022

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The sneaky economics of Ticketmaster : Ticketmaster’s maligned fees and customer service issues are again under the microscope. The Hustle ). • What Is the Bond Market Saying About the Economy? Will American music fans ever see anything better? ( New York Times ). • Economist ).

Math 300

Math Economy Communication Economics 300

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

Strong Recession Signal Since 1990, the spread between 30-month T-Bills and the 10-year Treasury Note was only more inverted ahead of the 2001 recession. Since 1990, the spread between 30-month T-Bills and the 30-year long bond has only been more inverted a couple of times. This is a very strong recession signal. Some of Ms.

Retirement 263

Retirement Economy Marketing Marketing 263

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 23, 2024

If they are cutting due to a panic (think March 2020) or due to a recession (like in 2001 or 2007) potential trouble could indeed be lurking. Yes, 2001 and 2007 are in there, as you’ve probably heard many times the past week if you’ve watched financial media at all. All this is very positive for the economy. on average.

Marketing 92

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 92

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

And it was a miserable economic time, with both of these elevated measures together creating a period of unhappy people that the Misery index neatly captured. As Zunbrun observes, “ The Misery Index, as commonly constructed, doesn’t adequately capture how overall economic conditions affect attitudes.”. Should it be? 46, October 2014).

Economics 322

Economics Budgeting Taxes Economy 322

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 7, 2024

Strong Job Numbers Are Good News for the Economy and Markets There’s been valid concern that employment conditions are deteriorating, ever so slowly. That’s higher than anything we saw between 2001 and 2019 (when it peaked at 80.4%). But even if you want to take the economic data with buckets of salt, just look at the market.

Marketing 91

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 91

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 23, 2023

The strength of the global economy is a big question this week and next as industrials and technology companies gear up to report earnings. With greater exposure to international markets, their performance will be a good guidepost for how the global economy is doing compared to the U.S.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Economics Economy 105

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

Besides 2022, recent examples include 2018, 2000, and 2002 (the recession was in 2001). Federal Reserve : While a recession is possible in 2024, it mostly depends upon how long the FOMC keeps rates tighter (higher) than is appropriate for the economy. Data via Yardeni Research ). You beat inflation and avoided a recession.

Economy 329

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 329

Nationwide Financial

MAY 4, 2023

Tighter monetary policy has helped bring inflation down somewhat from its peak last June, with the expected consequence of slowing economic growth as seen in the Q1 GDP report. Nationwide Economics expects the Fed’s recent quarter-point hike to be the last tightening move for the current cycle.

Economics 75

Economics Banking Retirement Financial Market 75

Carson Wealth

JULY 8, 2024

The economy added 206,000 jobs in June, ahead of expectations of 190,000. Fortunately, the doers drive the economy; the thinkers only report on it. The economy created 206,000 jobs last month, above expectations for a 190,000 increase. These down cycles can adversely impact the productive capacity of the economy in future years.

Marketing 94

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 94

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 19, 2023

Since 1995, there are four rather distinct periods during which forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500 Index declined, tied to a specific event and/or economic downturn. Further, stock markets tend historically to move in advance of changes in economic activity or earnings trajectory, not in response to those changes. company.

Clients 98

Clients Economy Economics Investments 98

Nationwide Financial

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

Beyond the economic and earnings slowdown, investors also face several technical factors that will impact near-term returns. Share repurchases enter a blackout period, impacting demand for shares at a time when fund managers are holding their largest cash levels since 2001. growth in the quarter versus 1.3% headwind, per Strategas.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economics Banking 52

Carson Wealth

JUNE 10, 2024

May job growth surprised to the upside with the economy adding a robust 272,000 jobs. How the consumer is tapped out, the economy is headed for a recession, only a few stocks are going up, and so on endlessly. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually measures this, via a metric called “part-time employment for economic reasons.”

Marketing 140

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 140

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

If the Fed starts cutting rates, like it did in 2020, or like it did in 2008, or like it did even in 2001, and it’s a panic. “ Oh my god, the economy’s falling apart, people are losing their jobs, we’ve got to start to stimulate the economy, we have to stop a recession.” If the Fed is cutting rates.

Numbers 283

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 283

Carson Wealth

JUNE 12, 2023

Carson’s leading economic index indicates the economy is not in a recession. The bottom line is many bears have been proven wrong, as the economy continued to surprise to the upside, inflation came back to earth, and overall earnings estimates increased. economy. This has run contrary to most economists’ predictions.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Manufacturing 52

Carson Wealth

MARCH 11, 2024

The bottom line is the economy is strong because the labor market is strong. The global economy was in shambles, and people were losing their jobs all around. The economy created 275,000 jobs in February, well above expectations for an increase of 200,000. That is a powerful indicator of the economy’s strength.

Marketing 93

Marketing Marketing Economy Retirement 93

Carson Wealth

MAY 22, 2023

As we explain more below, the economy is presenting many positive signs that suggest a recession is unlikely, and stocks likely are sniffing this out. Economic data continues to come in strong, including for retail sales and vehicle production. Housing may no longer be a drag on economic growth the rest of this year.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

Carson Wealth

MAY 6, 2024

This Bull Market Is Still Young As we’ve been saying for close to 18 months, we think we are in a new bull market and the economy will avoid a recession over the coming year. The April jobs number showed a healthy job market while easing concerns that the economy is overheating. Not much has changed, and we still feel this way.

Marketing 94

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 94

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 9, 2024

or more percentage points above the lowest point of that average over the last 12 months, the economy is likely in the early months of a recession. The good news is that the preponderance of economic data clearly tells us we’re not in a recession right now. It’s correctly indicated every recession since 1970. back in May).

Marketing 59

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 59

Nationwide Financial

OCTOBER 17, 2022

This, along with fund manager cash being at the highest since 2001, drove the sharp recovery, and reflect the potential for upside to expectations. The International Monetary Fund warned of increased pressure on the global economy, cutting the forecast for next year to 2.9%, down from 2.9% for the fourth week. next year and 4.1%

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Retail Banking 52

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

JANUARY 26, 2024

As we are now a decade and a half removed from that economic meltdown, I feel that a bit of reflection is in order. Did that period of time, albeit historic in many ways, usher in an actual “new normal” or was it simply an atypical period within an otherwise normal 50-year economic period.

Marketing 74

Marketing Marketing Financial Advisor Economics 74

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 7, 2023

debt was downgraded for a second time in history, but we do not expect this to have much impact on the bull market or the strength of the economy. The economy is growing and normalizing. Lastly, the economy continues to surprise to the upside (discussed further below), so the timing of this downgrade is questionable. on average.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Government Economy 52

Carson Wealth

APRIL 8, 2024

economy continues to look solid, with markets rallying Friday after a stronger-than-expected jobs report. Of course, markets will ultimately respond to movement in the economy and corporate America, which we discuss below. economy, and the job market is leading the way. last week, getting the first quarter off to a slow start.

Marketing 92

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economy 92

James Hendries

JUNE 20, 2023

As the economy is likely downshifting, investors should take heed that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) current stance is eerily similar to early 2007. During that time, the Fed held a tightening bias since they believed the housing market was stabilizing, the economy would continue to expand, and inflation risks remained.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Communication 52

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

With a series of important economic indicators suggesting the economy is declining and inflation is finally decelerating, albeit very slowly, markets are beginning to factor in that the Fed may soon transition to a less aggressive stance in early 2023. The Economy Slows But Inflation Follows Too Slowly. economy grew at a 2.6%

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Manufacturing Economy 52

Mauldin Economics

JUNE 9, 2021

Peter Boockvar, CIO at Bleakley Advisory Group, has his finger on the economy’s pulse. Peter, who is the author of The Boock Report , in which he flash-analyzes the latest economic data in handy bite-size multiple emails per day, makes an important distinction between goods inflation and services inflation. That drives prices up.

Transportation 52

Transportation Food Electronics Healthcare 52

Nationwide Financial

OCTOBER 24, 2022

Bloomberg data puts the odds of a recession over the next 12 months at 100%, with the global economy in tougher shape than ours, as indicated by the strength of the dollar. Margins are currently forecast to accelerate each of the next three quarters, which has many observers skeptical. The most crowded trades are long the U.S. What to Watch.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Manufacturing Financial Market 52

Carson Wealth

APRIL 10, 2023

Stocks were relatively flat last week in the face of weak economic data. Still, in the face of slowing economic reports, we were impressed stocks were able to hold onto some gains. Then Silicon Valley Bank crashed in early March, raising fears the economy would buckle if a widespread banking crisis followed. Short answer: No.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Banking 52

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 22, 2024

For a broad view of our expectations for the economy, stocks, and bonds in 2024, download our 2024 Market Outlook. That bear eventually ended in October 2022, and since then stocks have defied many experts, who continually (and incorrectly) touted a weakening economy, tapped-out consumer, and many other reasons to doubt the new bull market.

Marketing 94

Marketing Marketing Economy Portfolio 94

Nationwide Financial

MAY 8, 2023

The FOMC voted to raise the Fed Funds target rate by 0.25% to 5.25%, matching the highest level since 2001 and the most rapid tightening path since 1980. Job openings fell below 10 million for the first time in two years at 9.6 million, though it remains well above the 5.6 million unemployed persons. labor market remained tight.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Banking Economics 52

Mr. Money Mustache

SEPTEMBER 4, 2023

Interest rates are like a giant gas pedal that revs the engine of our economy, with the polished black dress shoe of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pressed upon it. And of course when interest rates get jacked up, almost everything else in the economy slows down. So let’s talk about strategy. We should have Fiscal Discipline!

Economy 84

Economy Banking Budgeting Investing 84

Trade Brains

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

Techknowgreen Solutions IPO Review: About the Company Techknowgreen Solutions Limited was incorporated in 2001, it is an environment consulting firm that provides environment consulting services. In this article, we will look at Techknowgreen Solutions IPO Review, analyze its strengths and weaknesses and see what unfolds.

Consulting 59

Consulting Compliance Government Clients 59

The Better Letter

JANUARY 19, 2023

economy, the world’s largest, have not been without consequences, far and wide. When rates rise, borrowing costs increase, which tends to slow economic demand and temper inflation. percent is the highest year-end level since 2001; the 3.3 economy remained resilient, especially compared with the rest of the world.

Banking 84

Banking Economy Marketing Marketing 84

Dear Mr. Market

MARCH 11, 2023

For one, Japan does not always “act” like our domestic markets nor other international economies so in that regard it provides a layer of diversification most portfolios rarely have. It first has to fend off #10 Turkey ( TUR ) whose economy is already vulnerable but also having to recover from a pair of massive 7.8 earthquakes.

Investing 93

Investing Investments Portfolio Assets 93

The Big Picture

JULY 24, 2023

He brings a fascinating approach and a bit of an outlier, contrarian way of looking at the world that has allowed him to identify specific changes in what’s taking place in the economy, in the markets, and essentially provide a helpful sounding board to many of the world’s best investors. Simple answer, demographics.

Marketing 130

Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 130

Mr. Money Mustache

MAY 20, 2022

And just to amplify everything even further, China has launched a batshit crazy (and medically impossible) “zero covid” policy, locking down hundreds of millions of its own people who can no longer produce or export the things that the rest of the world’s economy had grown to rely upon. So if you’re under 40, some of this may feel unfamiliar.

Marketing 53

Marketing Marketing Retirement Investments 53

Trade Brains

JANUARY 5, 2023

This will not only improve the environment but also India’s overall economic health. Being the first major EV manufacturer it launched Mahindra Reva, its first EV as early as 2001. Another major factor for Electric Cars being expensive in India is that this industry is not able to utilize economies of large-scale production.

Manufacturing 98

Manufacturing Transportation Government Engineering 98