Mish Talk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

The two main exceptions are 2001 and 2020 where IP was in a long slowdown before recession hit. The current numbers by themselves do not indicate much of anything but they are one of the items the NBER will use in arrears to determine if a recession has started. Twice the lead time was a month and twice it was two months.

Manufacturing 130

Manufacturing Numbers Economics 130

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 19, 2023

Since 1995, there are four rather distinct periods during which forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500 Index declined, tied to a specific event and/or economic downturn. Further, stock markets tend historically to move in advance of changes in economic activity or earnings trajectory, not in response to those changes.

Clients 98

Clients Economy Economics Marketing 98

Carson Wealth

JUNE 10, 2024

We didn’t even see significant revisions to March and April payroll numbers, and the 3-month average now sits at 249,000. The payroll number comes from the “establishment survey,” which is a survey of about 119,000 businesses and government agencies (about 629,000 worksites). Well, the May payroll report upended that narrative.

Marketing 142

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 142

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

Monthly numbers can be noisy and so a 3-month average is helpful. The prime-age (25-54) employment-population ratio, which is a way of controlling for demographic effects and labor force participation issues, is 80.5% exactly where it was a year ago, and higher than at any point between May 2001 and December 2019.

Marketing 68

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 68

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 23, 2024

If they are cutting due to a panic (think March 2020) or due to a recession (like in 2001 or 2007) potential trouble could indeed be lurking. Yes, 2001 and 2007 are in there, as you’ve probably heard many times the past week if you’ve watched financial media at all. First things first, why are they cutting? on average.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 96

Carson Wealth

JULY 8, 2024

These numbers can and will be revised, and so it helps to look at the 3-month average. That number has been trending down since earlier this year, but it’s at a healthy 177,000 right now, above the 166,000 average pace in 2019. The economy created 206,000 jobs last month, above expectations for a 190,000 increase.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 97

The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2022

What makes Graham so interesting is while everybody else in the world of private equity is focused on the analytics and crunching numbers and creating econometric models that will tell you where to invest, I think they’ve found a very different model that has been extremely successful for them, where the key focus is on talent.

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Consulting Numbers Management Investing 298

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 7, 2024

Strong Job Numbers Are Good News for the Economy and Markets There’s been valid concern that employment conditions are deteriorating, ever so slowly. That’s higher than anything we saw between 2001 and 2019 (when it peaked at 80.4%). But even if you want to take the economic data with buckets of salt, just look at the market.

Marketing 95

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 95

Carson Wealth

MAY 6, 2024

Stocks gained for the second week in a row, as strong earnings, a dovish Fed, and a “Goldilocks” job number sparked buying. The April jobs number showed a healthy job market while easing concerns that the economy is overheating. The overall inflation numbers, including for core inflation, can hide what’s happening beneath the surface.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 97

The Irrelevant Investor

JULY 3, 2019

When people look at financial markets, they see numbers and they hear narratives. History books will describe the last ten years as "a period of moderate economic growth on the back of accommodative central bank policy." The best period using this metric was 1991-2001,which experienced a max drawdown of 19.3%

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Numbers Banking Marketing Marketing 52

The Better Letter

MARCH 27, 2025

If there’s one thing we know about economics (and it applies much more broadly, of course), it’s that incentives work. miles per hour over the last 20 years, and the number of pitches over 100 miles per hour increased from 214 in 2008 to more than 3,300 in 2024. Larry Vanover was the worst, at 92.1 miles per hour to 94.3

Accounting 60

Accounting Food Retirement Electronics 60

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 23, 2024

He also spent time at Sebus and More Capital before launching his own firm in 2001. They have a number of businesses that they’ve taken over through the debt side of the equation. Bachelor of Commerce with honors from Delhi University, a Master’s in Economic from Vanderbilt, and then an MBA from the University of Chicago.

Banking 147

Banking Investing Investments Assets 147

Carson Wealth

APRIL 8, 2024

gain, but not a bad number by any means. The measure is at 80.7%, exactly where it was a year ago and higher than at any point between July 2001 and February 2020. That means labor productivity continues to run strong, as workers are producing above-trend output while working the same number of hours. median return.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economy 96

The Big Picture

JUNE 7, 2023

They have economics. And 70 percent of the economics of the alpha that has been generated will flow to the investors and 30 percent will accrue to the manager. Then we get into the setting up an economic structure which is going to be attractive to your investment staff. What is that economic trajectory look like with success?

Management 277

Management Investments Investing Economics 277

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 7, 2023

Some may view the lower-than-expected jobs numbers as heralding a recession, but more likely they are signs of economic normalization not weakness. This measures the number of people working as a percentage of the civilian population. That is higher than at any point since May 2001 when it was falling. annual pace.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Government Economy 52

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 9, 2024

The good news is that the preponderance of economic data clearly tells us we’re not in a recession right now. That’s higher than anything we saw between 2001 and 2019 (when it peaked at 80.4%). It’s correctly indicated every recession since 1970. The bad news is that the Sahm Rule triggered in July and remains triggered in August.

Marketing 65

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 65

Carson Wealth

MAY 22, 2023

Economic data continues to come in strong, including for retail sales and vehicle production. Housing starts and permits data are turning around as builders become more confident about the economic outlook. Housing may no longer be a drag on economic growth the rest of this year. The housing market is showing signs of recovery.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

The Big Picture

MAY 7, 2024

She has a number of investments as as really a entrepreneur and a venture investor. So I got the job as Chief Revenue Officer of MSN in 2001. You know, we look at these economic busts or these market crashes, and it’s obvious in hindsight what spectacular opportunities there they were. Barry Ritholtz : Huh.

Startup 147

Startup Advertising Engineering Numbers 147

Dear Mr. Market

MARCH 11, 2023

In other words, these investments (or “teams”) are ranked and seeded on a number of factors but one of the main drivers is how hot they recently performed within the past few months or recent year. From 1980 to 2001 gold decreased -67% while inflation rose +126%.

Investments 102

Investments Investing Portfolio Assets 102

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

With a series of important economic indicators suggesting the economy is declining and inflation is finally decelerating, albeit very slowly, markets are beginning to factor in that the Fed may soon transition to a less aggressive stance in early 2023. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Manufacturing Economy 52

James Hendries

JUNE 20, 2023

That’s not suggesting another 2008 is coming, but rather highlights how fast the economic environment can change. Along with the statement, the Committee updated the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which is arguably more important than the brief monetary policy statement.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Communication 52

Trade Brains

NOVEMBER 7, 2023

According to the reports of the IMF( International Monetary Fund), global economic growth may fall from 3.4% Later on, it expanded itself into the options segment a year later in 2001. As of now, The NSE has emerged as the world’s largest derivatives exchange in 2022 with the highest number of contracts traded.

Financial Market 59

Financial Market Marketing Marketing Banking 59

ClearMoney

DECEMBER 5, 2021

Exhibit 1 shows that roughly half the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries have general government debt-to-gross domestic product2 (debt/GDP) ratios above 70%, with 10 countries—including the US, Japan, and the United Kingdom (UK)—exceeding 100%. Trading Economics. Review of Finance 22, no.

Government 52

Government Commission Economics Distribution 52

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 22, 2024

Waller noted that in the past the Fed had lowered rates reactively, quickly, and by large amounts, but that was after shocks to the economy threatened recession (like in 2000-2001 and 2007-2008). However, this time he sees no reason to “move as quickly” or “cut as rapidly” as in the past.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Portfolio 97

Mr. Money Mustache

SEPTEMBER 4, 2023

The one thing all sides seem to agree on is that we are “experiencing hard economic times” and that “the country is headed in the wrong way”. Which quickly becomes an even bigger number than 12%. I remember paying $600 for a fancy-at-the-time undermount sink and $400 for a faucet for my first kitchen remodel in the year 2001.

Economy 83

Economy Banking Budgeting Investing 83

ClearMoney

DECEMBER 5, 2021

Exhibit 1 shows that roughly half the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries have general government debt-to-gross domestic product2 (debt/GDP) ratios above 70%, with 10 countries—including the US, Japan, and the United Kingdom (UK)—exceeding 100%. Trading Economics. Review of Finance 22, no.

Government 52

Government Commission Economics Distribution 52

The Big Picture

JULY 24, 2023

RITHOLTZ: You had 1987, you had 1997, you had 1998 there were a number of really substantial. Because obviously fundamental underpinning to the secular bull market, you know, number one is the fact that households are in better financial conditions than they have been since, you know, the GFC. RITHOLTZ: Right. RITHOLTZ: Right.

Marketing 130

Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 130

Brown Advisory

NOVEMBER 1, 2023

Further, estate taxes in many states have been outright eliminated in the 21st century; before 2001, all 50 states had an estate tax, but today, there are only 12 (plus an additional six with various forms of inheritance taxes). But that “spread” has narrowed in a meaningful way. million for an individual, and $25.84

Accounting 52

Accounting Taxes Assets Clients 52

Mr. Money Mustache

MAY 20, 2022

Which has in turn triggered the more skittish stock investors to run for the exits and completely change their view of our economic future, flooding the financial news with red ink and scary headlines. Now that we’ve covered the background, we can get into some better news: This is all a normal, healthy part of the economic cycle.

Marketing 53

Marketing Marketing Retirement Investing 53

Dear Mr. Market

MARCH 17, 2024

In other words, these investments (or “teams”) are ranked and seeded on a number of factors but one of the main drivers is how hot they recently performed within the past few months or recent year. We still like Energy this year and that is especially so with it being one of the most beaten down economic sectors from 2023.

Investments 94

Investments Investing Portfolio Assets 94

The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2022

I mean, I could count them on one hand the number of people who have his depth of knowledge in this space. And in order to graduate from Cook you had to have at least a minor that was related, and I thought — I took an econ class and I kind of liked it, so I minored in environmental economics. RITHOLTZ: Interesting.

Assets 173

Assets Management Marketing Marketing 173

Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 20, 2017

After joining the investment industry in 2001, he served as director of research at two firms, creating a small-cap growth strategy at one of them before joining Brown Advisory in 2014. In early 2006, he took over the small-cap initiative at Brown Advisory, pioneering the current approach.

Portfolio Management 52

Portfolio Management Portfolio Management Investments 52

Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 20, 2017

After joining the investment industry in 2001, he served as director of research at two firms, creating a small-cap growth strategy at one of them before joining Brown Advisory in 2014. In early 2006, he took over the small-cap initiative at Brown Advisory, pioneering the current approach.

Portfolio Management 52

Portfolio Management Portfolio Management Investments 52

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 24, 2022

So there are a number of us heading in out of college into the BLS. So I leave the Bureau of Labor Statistics and I move into economic consulting. The managed portfolio business began in 2001. And she had a number of standing slots on TV shows. So it’s a pretty heady title, maybe a generous title for a 23-year-old.

Portfolio 130

Portfolio Management Assets Investments 130

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 5, 2024

You, you graduate western Kentucky in 2019, triple major financial management, economics and business data analytics. Yeah, I didn’t even know you could major in economics till I got to college. To a number of people. Like the fact that I didn’t know economics was a major until I got to college. You did not.

Economy 162

Economy Education Insurance Economics 162

The Big Picture

MARCH 27, 2023

So it was a pretty different situation from 2001, where the whole dot-com bust, but more importantly, the telecom implosion. RITHOLTZ: There’s safety in numbers. since the ‘80s regarding economic mobility, that there used to be a huge ability to move up, or at least be in a better situation than your parents were.

Assets 285

Assets Investing Investments Management 285

ClearMoney

FEBRUARY 21, 2022

Geopolitical events like military or economic conflicts can affect stock markets in many ways. If imposed, they would add to sanctions on Russia that have been in place for a number of years. In 2001, the New York Stock Exchange closed until September 17 after the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center.

Commission 52

Commission Portfolio Government Distribution 52