Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 Or will the economy lose jobs? If the Fed drives the economy into recession (to cool inflation), then we could see job losses in 2023. Or will the economy lose jobs? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2022.

Economy 93

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 93

Calculated Risk

JUNE 27, 2024

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. Inevitably, more inventory in a job-creating economy will lead to greater home buying, especially when mortgage rates descend.”. The market is at an interesting point with rising inventory and lower demand,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

Sales 119

Sales Economy Marketing Marketing 119

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 12, 2022

The Hustle ). • What Is the Bond Market Saying About the Economy? A Wealth of Common Sense ) see also After a Terrible Year for Bonds, the Outlook Is Better : October capped their worst 12-month period ever, and the economy is under pressure. Will American music fans ever see anything better? ( New York Times ). • Economist ).

Math 300

Math Economy Communication Economics 300

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

How much will the economy grow in 2024? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2023, even though some key indicators suggested a possible recession, the FOMC was forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts were forecasting an economic recession. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 78

Economy Sales Economics Investing 78

Advisor Perspectives

JANUARY 4, 2024

Are they good news for the economy as borrowers catch a break, or a sign of impending recession as they were in 2001 and 2007? The key economic question for 2024 is how to think about the interest rate cuts we’re likely to get from the Federal Reserve.

Economics 52

Economics Economy 52

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 16, 2024

The bottom line is if the economy was truly about to fall apart like so many economists keep telling us, we’d expect to see more weakness in high-yield bonds right here. Instead they are making more than two-year highs, yet another sign the economy is on firm footing despite what the nightly news tells you.

Marketing 91

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 91

Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 20, 2023

Outside of the distortions stemming from Covid and Covid-related fiscal stimulus, it was the largest monthly advance in retail sales since 2001, when car dealers were offering no-interest loans to boost sales after 9/11. Like the gain from 2001, sales in January were boosted by auto sales, but not nearly to the same extent.

Economics 52

Economics Economy Retail Sales 52

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 23, 2024

If they are cutting due to a panic (think March 2020) or due to a recession (like in 2001 or 2007) potential trouble could indeed be lurking. Yes, 2001 and 2007 are in there, as you’ve probably heard many times the past week if you’ve watched financial media at all. All this is very positive for the economy. on average.

Marketing 92

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 92

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 30, 2024

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. Further gains are expected if the economy continues to add jobs, inventory levels grow, and mortgage rates hold steady.”.

Sales 67

Sales Economy Marketing Marketing 67

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

Besides 2022, recent examples include 2018, 2000, and 2002 (the recession was in 2001). Federal Reserve : While a recession is possible in 2024, it mostly depends upon how long the FOMC keeps rates tighter (higher) than is appropriate for the economy. Data via Yardeni Research ). You beat inflation and avoided a recession.

Economy 329

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 329

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. If mortgage rates moderate and the economy continues adding jobs, then home buying should also stabilize.".

Sales 98

Sales Economy 98

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 7, 2024

Strong Job Numbers Are Good News for the Economy and Markets There’s been valid concern that employment conditions are deteriorating, ever so slowly. That’s higher than anything we saw between 2001 and 2019 (when it peaked at 80.4%). At the end of the day, profits come from the economy, and that’s what drives market returns.

Marketing 91

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 91

Carson Wealth

JULY 8, 2024

The economy added 206,000 jobs in June, ahead of expectations of 190,000. Fortunately, the doers drive the economy; the thinkers only report on it. The economy created 206,000 jobs last month, above expectations for a 190,000 increase. These down cycles can adversely impact the productive capacity of the economy in future years.

Marketing 94

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 94

Nationwide Financial

MARCH 8, 2023

Moreover, the spread between the current six-month Treasury yield and the forward earnings yield of the S&P 500® Index is the smallest since 2001. With inflation becoming sticky, the Federal Reserve may need to slow the economy by maintaining interest rates at “higher for longer” levels.

Assets 111

Assets Financial Planning Economy Investing 111

Carson Wealth

JUNE 10, 2024

May job growth surprised to the upside with the economy adding a robust 272,000 jobs. How the consumer is tapped out, the economy is headed for a recession, only a few stocks are going up, and so on endlessly. What Matters for the Economy: Consumption (and Incomes) Consumption runs on incomes, and the picture there is positive.

Marketing 140

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 140

Validea

APRIL 3, 2023

A recession as well as rate cuts are both certainties this year, according to an article in Bloomberg that cites the metric that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell pointed to a year ago, when he advised looking at the yield curve—and whether or not it was inverted—as an indication of whether rates will be cut and if the economy is in a slowdown.

Economy 52

Economy Marketing Marketing 52

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

Zunbrun cites University of Warwick professor Andrew Oswald’s 2001 paper surveying 300,000 people living in the US. Inflation matters but so too does the overall economy — the unemployment rate, wage gains, and fiscal stimulus during the pandemic. point increase in the inflation rate.

Economics 322

Economics Budgeting Taxes Economy 322

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

If the Fed starts cutting rates, like it did in 2020, or like it did in 2008, or like it did even in 2001, and it’s a panic. “ Oh my god, the economy’s falling apart, people are losing their jobs, we’ve got to start to stimulate the economy, we have to stop a recession.”

Numbers 283

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 283

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 23, 2023

The strength of the global economy is a big question this week and next as industrials and technology companies gear up to report earnings. With greater exposure to international markets, their performance will be a good guidepost for how the global economy is doing compared to the U.S.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Economics Economy 105

Carson Wealth

MARCH 11, 2024

The bottom line is the economy is strong because the labor market is strong. The global economy was in shambles, and people were losing their jobs all around. The economy created 275,000 jobs in February, well above expectations for an increase of 200,000. That is a powerful indicator of the economy’s strength.

Marketing 93

Marketing Marketing Economy Retirement 93

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 19, 2023

Dot-com hangover/9-11 October 2000 December 2001 -16.5% 9/21/2001 12/31/2001 52 18.9% 8/31/1998 12/31/1998 122 28.4% Great Financial Crisis October 2007 April 2009 -39.0% 3/9/2009 4/30/2009 69 29.0% COVID-19 January 2020 May 2020 -20.3% 3/23/2020 5/31/2020 101 36.1% Source: FactSet as of 12/31/2022. company.

Clients 98

Clients Economy Economics Investing 98

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

That is more than the economy needs to keep up with population growth. That’s encouraging for consumption and the economy. The Labor Market Is Also Normalizing At the beginning of the year, we labeled our 2023 outlook “The Edge of Normal” as we expected markets and the economy to normalize in 2023. Wage growth remains strong.

Marketing 77

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 77

Carson Wealth

MAY 6, 2024

This Bull Market Is Still Young As we’ve been saying for close to 18 months, we think we are in a new bull market and the economy will avoid a recession over the coming year. The April jobs number showed a healthy job market while easing concerns that the economy is overheating. Not much has changed, and we still feel this way.

Marketing 94

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 94

The Richer Geek

MAY 31, 2023

He's the co-founder of decentral, it's a media company, committed to telling the stories of the founders, builders and visionaries who are creating a decentralized economy and Internet experience. Today we have Matthew Leising. It should be extremely interesting to talk to Matt. He's been a reporter for 17 years, he worked for Bloomberg News.

Media 52

Media Economy 52

Trade Brains

NOVEMBER 3, 2024

Antony Waste Handling Cell , established in 2001, specializes in municipal solid waste management and maintains strong partnerships with multiple municipalities. Conclusion These four sectors represent significant growth opportunities in India’s evolving economy. Currently, two stocks capture investor attention in this space.

Electronics 52

Electronics Manufacturing Government Management 52

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 16, 2023

“Treasury rates were elevated again last week following mixed data on inflation and more indication of resiliency in the economy, which may pose a challenge to the Federal Reserve’s efforts to lower inflation. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased for the third straight week, reaching 7.16

Government 52

Government Economy Marketing Marketing 52

Nationwide Financial

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

Share repurchases enter a blackout period, impacting demand for shares at a time when fund managers are holding their largest cash levels since 2001. With two weeks left in the quarter, the S&P 500® Index is on pace for the sixth-worst performance on record through three quarters, trailing only 1974, 2001, 2002, 1931, and 2008.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economics Banking 52

The Irrelevant Investor

OCTOBER 20, 2020

The Covid economy has been a tailwind for companies that didn't need any help. The last time revenue failed to grow by double digits was back in 2001. While the Covid economy has been a tailwind for Amazon, it's also forced its competitors to play catch up. Exhibit A, Amazon. billion, up from $38.65 billion a year earlier.

Economy 52

Economy Retail Numbers Sales 52

Carson Wealth

JUNE 12, 2023

Carson’s leading economic index indicates the economy is not in a recession. The bottom line is many bears have been proven wrong, as the economy continued to surprise to the upside, inflation came back to earth, and overall earnings estimates increased. At Carson, we aren’t crazy about this definition of a bull market.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Manufacturing 52

Carson Wealth

APRIL 8, 2024

economy continues to look solid, with markets rallying Friday after a stronger-than-expected jobs report. Of course, markets will ultimately respond to movement in the economy and corporate America, which we discuss below. economy, and the job market is leading the way. last week, getting the first quarter off to a slow start.

Marketing 92

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economy 92

Nationwide Financial

OCTOBER 17, 2022

This, along with fund manager cash being at the highest since 2001, drove the sharp recovery, and reflect the potential for upside to expectations. The International Monetary Fund warned of increased pressure on the global economy, cutting the forecast for next year to 2.9%, down from 2.9% for the fourth week.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Retail Banking 52

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 7, 2023

debt was downgraded for a second time in history, but we do not expect this to have much impact on the bull market or the strength of the economy. The economy is growing and normalizing. Lastly, the economy continues to surprise to the upside (discussed further below), so the timing of this downgrade is questionable. on average.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Government Economy 52

Carson Wealth

MAY 22, 2023

As we explain more below, the economy is presenting many positive signs that suggest a recession is unlikely, and stocks likely are sniffing this out. Residential investment makes up under 5% of the economy , but it’s been a drag on economic growth for eight straight quarters. The housing market is showing signs of recovery.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

Nationwide Financial

MAY 4, 2023

The sole exception was during the dot-com stock bubble crash of 2000-2001.) But with one exception, the year after the Fed stops raising rates has historically been favorable for stock investors. The historical record highlights why stock investors are eager for the Fed to hit the brakes on rate tightening finally.

Economics 75

Economics Banking Retirement Financial Market 75

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 22, 2024

For a broad view of our expectations for the economy, stocks, and bonds in 2024, download our 2024 Market Outlook. That bear eventually ended in October 2022, and since then stocks have defied many experts, who continually (and incorrectly) touted a weakening economy, tapped-out consumer, and many other reasons to doubt the new bull market.

Marketing 94

Marketing Marketing Economy Portfolio 94

Validea

DECEMBER 9, 2022

Of course, economists aren’t always right; since the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia began an annual survey of GDP expectations in 1968, not one recession was forecast a year in advance, and the 1990, 2001 and 2008 recessions were totally missed.

Engineering 52

Engineering Banking Portfolio Economy 52

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 9, 2024

or more percentage points above the lowest point of that average over the last 12 months, the economy is likely in the early months of a recession. That’s higher than anything we saw between 2001 and 2019 (when it peaked at 80.4%). It’s correctly indicated every recession since 1970. back in May).

Marketing 59

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 59