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Yet the fundamental math of bond returns bodes well for 2023, our columnist says. ( Survival Lessons From Past Tech Downturns : The current tech downturn could be much worse than it appears now, say those who lived through the 2001 and 2008 crashes—but those who make it have the chance to fuel the next bubble. New York Times ). •
So I took it upon myself to go off and took a course in bond math, took another course in derivatives and realized the underlying fundamental concepts were barely, I mean, it wasn’t even high school math in most cases. And then I was the beneficiary of the TMT bubble bursting in 2001.
It’s fun math – a 20% drop in prices means you get 25% more shares for your dollar, and a 50% drop means twice as many , or 100% more shares per dollar invested.). In today’s market, you are getting about 25% more shares for each dollar that you invest. 3) Okay, but I really am retired and trying to live off my investments now.
So it was a pretty different situation from 2001, where the whole dot-com bust, but more importantly, the telecom implosion. The great bonanza of late ’08 and ’09 is that there were companies that were not stressed at all. It’s just the bonds were trading horribly, just because liquidity was gone for the market.
It indicates that more people are working and want to work than at any point between 2001 and 2020. By my math, there have been 57 Super Bowls and 22 different winners. It’s not far below the highest level recorded over the past year when the ratio hit 80.9% in October 2023). I broke the data down by franchise and city.
For example, there were alleged budget surpluses in four consecutive years, 1998 through 2001. 2001 had a reported surplus of $128,236 billion. 2022 Math The 2021 year end debt was $29.621 trillion. This is not a fiscal vs. calendar year distortion, but an ongoing deficit lie. Yet ,debt rose by $281,223 billion.
I’m kind of in intrigued by the idea of philosophy and math. So I found myself getting kind of bored with my math problem sets, and then I could shift to philosophy and then go back and forth. So it’s been, you know, back in, in 2001, strategists were telling you to put about 70% of your money in stocks.
And we sold our stake in the business to Barry Diller in 2001. So here’s the math, Barry. We would eventually, not only eventually, so that was 1999. I was still in business school helping them incubate it. I became co CEO of the business. You know, the internet had crashed, but our business was working really well.
Jeffrey Sherman : Well, what it was was, so I, as I said, with applications, there’s many applications of math, and the usually obvious one is physics. Barry Ritholtz : It seems that some people are math people and some people are not. The, the math came easier. And I really hated physics, really. It’s so true.
I started out math and, and physics, and in high school I was a rock star in math and physics. You gotta go back to the 2001 recession. And if you looked at the big event that we had was the ascension of China to the World Trade Organization around 2001 or something like that. But those guys are great, right?
Wasn’t the Excel spreadsheet error, which changed their math. You know, when Bill Clinton was president and you had the budget, federal budget in surplus for four years in a row, 98 through 2001, the government’s budget was in surplus. And of course, we had a recession in 2001, and then the surpluses disappeared.
And China, even before China enters the World Trade Organization in 2001, but especially afterwards, I is the, you know, perfect place to make products at scale, increasing sophistication, low cost. I do the math. You’re tapping into the world’s potentially largest consumer market for, you know, just about everything.
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