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We discount each year at our 10% minimum weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and some infinite series maths gives us the basis for some rough approximations 2. Specifically, economics has a half-life of 9.4 Maths has a long half-life and a DCF correctly done accounts for inflation. GAAP in 2002 7.
Which has in turn triggered the more skittish stock investors to run for the exits and completely change their view of our economic future, flooding the financial news with red ink and scary headlines. Now that we’ve covered the background, we can get into some better news: This is all a normal, healthy part of the economic cycle.
To give you a fun story, we launched Protégé Partners in 2002. And in 2002, the bucket of the largest hedge funds was those north of $1 billion. SEIDES: Before 2002, there were no capacity issues with whoever you thought the best hedge funds were. SEIDES: Yeah, I wouldn’t measure it in terms of economic returns.
since the ‘80s regarding economic mobility, that there used to be a huge ability to move up, or at least be in a better situation than your parents were. Tell us about how you saw this lack of diversity and the lack of economic mobility. And the data implies that from the 1980s forward, that kind of stopped.
But the numbers you can’t argue with, I mean, we all know that the brutal math of investing before costs investors collectively will earn the market return after costs. I did it in 2000, 2002. And I think it partly depends on the economic comfort in which you grew up. It’s, it’s a temporary move.
And I was a math nerd as a kid. I’m going to be skeptical about analyst adjusted earnings and look to free cash flow is a confirming, but, but I also wanna see, is it one of those cases where the analyst adjustments are economically realistic or are they excuses? And the value line has all these statistical patterns.
And then in ‘94 and ’98, you know, all had a different stream to 2002. RIEDER: And all of a sudden, you change the economic paradigm so darn fast. How are we doing in literacy versus math versus science? You know, then by the way, it wasn’t like the crises ended between 1990 and the recession on the S&L dynamics.
I’m kind of in intrigued by the idea of philosophy and math. So I found myself getting kind of bored with my math problem sets, and then I could shift to philosophy and then go back and forth. I know you like to discuss there are different phases of the, of the, both the market and the economic cycle.
That’s why the markets are much more of a mind game than a math game. And that’s why markets will always be exceedingly hard, even when the math seems easy or the future seems certain. These experts made a living “analyzing” and pontificating on political and economic developments. And lots of surprises.
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