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The maths are exactly the same. These sorts of math problems are the focus of this week’s TBL. Math Problems As this TBL goes live, just 16 games and one day of the NCAA Tournament are in the books, yet my bracket is a mess. We notice the unlikelihood of 100 in a row because of the pattern. Thanks for reading.
Nigl’s bracket finally went bust on game 50 (the third game on the second weekend) when three seed Purdue defeated number two Tennessee, 99-94, in overtime. And about 60 percent of national champions are one of the four number one seeds. A roulette wheel hitting the same number seven times in a row ( one in three billion ).
Barry Ritholtz : The the funny thing is, the behavioral aspect of mutual funds seems to have been when people finally learn about a manager who’s put up great numbers, by the time it makes to make makes it to Forbes, hey, most of that run is probably over and a little mean reversion is about to kick in. I did it in 2000, 2002.
And about 60 percent of national champions are one of the four number one seeds. A roulette wheel hitting the same number seven times in a row ( one in three billion ). Duke math professor Jonathan Mattingly claimed the average college basketball fan has a far better chance of achieving bracket perfection than one in 9.2
A 20% drop in managed futures that is leveraged to a 40% weight would have added another 800 basis points to the decline (simple math). The first from when I worked at Fisher Investments in 2002. I'd put an asterisk by the volatility number because of how little of the original capital was exposed to risk.
And then in ‘94 and ’98, you know, all had a different stream to 2002. And like I say, that’s part of why it’s translated to a number of people coming to BlackRock and be with me today. RIEDER: So I had known Larry Fink and Rob Caputo, our CEO and president, for a number of years. So yeah, man, that was the idea.
We remain highly dubious of price-to-earnings ratios as a proxy for value given earnings can be distorted by “creative” accounting and the measure embeds a range of factors into a single number. Maths has a long half-life and a DCF correctly done accounts for inflation. GAAP in 2002 7. We inherently prefer actual cash flow.
To give you a fun story, we launched Protégé Partners in 2002. Or at least the top, pick a number, 30, 40%. And in 2002, the bucket of the largest hedge funds was those north of $1 billion. SEIDES: Before 2002, there were no capacity issues with whoever you thought the best hedge funds were. Less, 20, 30%? RITHOLTZ: Sure.
It’s fun math – a 20% drop in prices means you get 25% more shares for your dollar, and a 50% drop means twice as many , or 100% more shares per dollar invested.). It’d be like retiring at the bottom of 2009 with still-decent numbers. Which translates to a full 25% more wealth from those shares in your future. . (It’s
RITHOLTZ: There’s safety in numbers. We talk about an S-curve for most industries, and there’s a very rapid expansion when you start with a good idea, and few people going after a very large pot, especially for distressed when you think of the 2001, 2002 periods. The numbers are correct. That’s the right thing.
And I was a math nerd as a kid. And because my mother and grandmother were looking at these trying to figure out what was going on, I was curious about the sea of numbers. And 00:28:03 [Speaker Changed] That’s an amazing number. 00:49:30 [Speaker Changed] I bought it around 2000 and it crashed around 2002.
The last sentence is about the math involved not about the right and wrong of any of it which we'll get to. Now comes the grim numbers about how much we have collectively saved for retirement. It is generally accepted that the various ideas around extending the retirement age and increasing taxes would solve much of the problem.
I’m kind of in intrigued by the idea of philosophy and math. So I found myself getting kind of bored with my math problem sets, and then I could shift to philosophy and then go back and forth. It’s kind of a silly number, but people are going to think you’re smart or dumb based on that number.
That’s why the markets are much more of a mind game than a math game. And that’s why markets will always be exceedingly hard, even when the math seems easy or the future seems certain. As my friend Morgan Housel has explained , “Every forecast takes a number from today and multiplies it by a story about tomorrow.”
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