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Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increases in October

Calculated Risk

The institutional component was varied, experiencing growth in recreational and education projects, countered by a decline in the number of healthcare and public planning projects. This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. Commercial planning was bolstered by a solid increase in office and hotel projects. in September.

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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

The only other years with a higher reading since 1990 were 2008 when the S&P fell 38%, and 2002, when it fell 23%. Why Jack Welch Wouldn’t Cut It Today : Bill George, a legendary CEO in his own right, says good quarterly numbers aren’t necessarily indicative of strong leadership. Investors Keep Piling In Anyway.

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

the rocket launch company he founded in 2002, before he got involved at Tesla. Life Lessons from 1,000 Years : I asked a number of 90-year-olds a simple question: “If you could speak to your 32-year-old self, what advice would you give?” But some habits are hard to break. ( New York Times ).

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Question #2 for 2023: How much will job growth slow in 2023? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

Job Changes During Recessions Year Job Change Recession 1974 -379 '73-'75 1975 365 '73-'75 1980 271 '80 1981 -48 '81-'82 1982 -2,124 '81-'82 1990 330 '90-'91 1991 -838 '90-91 2001 -1,727 '01 2002 -510 '01 2008 -3,553 '07-'09 2009 -5,051 '07-'09 2020 -9,292 '20 The 2020 recession was due to the pandemic. But those losses are already coming.

Economy 235
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Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased in July

Calculated Risk

July also saw a deceleration in the number of education and healthcare projects entering planning — the two largest institutional segments. This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. All commercial sectors pulled back, or remained flat, over the month of July. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

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Did Capital Efficiency Malfunction In This Decline?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

My first introduction to the concept was from my time at Fisher Investments in 2002. The concept of barbell strategies, which are a form of capital efficiency, in this context is sort of borrowed from Nassim Taleb who years ago talked about putting 10% of a portfolio in very risky stuff and the other 90% in very safe things like T-bills.

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Old School Alts, Represent!

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

The ten year numbers are awful for PRPFX because gold went down for about 4 years from 2013-2016. Going back to 2002 and PRPFX has a CAGR that beats VBAIX by 74 basis points annually thanks mostly to how well gold did in the first decade of this century.