Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 25, 2022

Going back to 2002 and PRPFX has a CAGR that beats VBAIX by 74 basis points annually thanks mostly to how well gold did in the first decade of this century. Portfolio 1 is 75% SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)/25% client and personal holding BTAL, Portfolio 2 is 100% PRPFX and Portfolio 3 is 100% VBAIX.

Portfolio 95

Portfolio Retail Accounting Numbers 95

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MAY 6, 2024

In 2000, BPLSX outperformed by 69%, in 2001 it outperformed by 37%, 22% in 2002 and 46% in 2009. That is not a bad result but might be less than you'd think when looking at the CAGR numbers. I outlined the four years that account for just about all of the long term outperformance.

Assets 98

Assets Portfolio Taxes Management 98

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 12, 2024

I'm not taking the Peter Schiff stance, I've owned it for a while and not planning on selling soon but it could just be internet hokum all the same. The Technology Sector SPDR (XLK) peaked out in $60 in 2000 and it bottomed in 2002 at $12. The tech sector isn't going to zero. Today, that fund is at $240.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Numbers Clients Retirement 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

SEPTEMBER 18, 2024

Even before that, a story I've told many times, when I was at Fisher Investments in 2002 there were a couple of guys who talked about getting a return equal to the S&P 500 by shorting Nikkei Futures with just 2% of the portfolio and 98% in cash.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Management Clients Investments 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 11, 2024

The first from when I worked at Fisher Investments in 2002. A tiny slice of the portfolio into one of these, provided there was a fund with two names that you liked, could be a way to allocate to asymmetry. I've told this 100 times but two connections for me to asymmetry or barbelling.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Management Math Taxes 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 24, 2024

Merger arbitrage could have some sort of problem I suppose but the under the symbol MERFX, which goes back to 1990, the worst year for the fund was 2002 when it dropped 5.67% but during that year it did go down 14% before recovering most of that decline before the year ended. That can only be taken as a proxy but it's better than nothing.

Portfolio 98

Portfolio Management Taxes Numbers 98

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 3, 2023

A very undramatic example of this is all the championships that Boston teams won from 2002 until 2018 and we'll see what the Celtics can pull off this year. It is far more productive to be realistic about possible changes and get to work on some sort of Plan B in case any changes do have a material impact on your situation.

Retirement 72

Retirement Taxes Math Accounting 72

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 14, 2022

Mr. Backhoe recruited both of us into the fire department in 2002. Somehow, I made it into Prescott, into the parking lot of what I think was an O'Reilly's and it stalled out halfway into the parking spot due to the dip in the lot, four feet short of where I wanted to park. Joellyn and I had a pretty good laugh over that.

Engineering 40

Engineering Recruitment 40

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 18, 2025

First, it was up in 2000, 2001 and 2002 while the S&P 500 was in the process of cutting half. I own a few shares of FIRS out of curiosity, it has an interesting take on the Permanent Portfolio. Speaking of PRPFX, building a core around that is not a bad idea, there will be drawbacks but it is not crazy. In 2022 it was only down 5.49%.

Management 52

Management Portfolio Math Retail 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JANUARY 1, 2025

If we go back to 2002 with this second back test using ProFunds Ultra S&P 500 (ULPIX) which is the mutual fund predecessor of SSO it looks bad because of how big of a hole any 2x fund would have had to dig out from after 2008 so there's some good context about the risk of any leverage strategy.

Retirement 52

Retirement Portfolio Clients Assets 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 16, 2025

I visited Walker on my second date with my future wife in 1991 and realized it was the answer but we didn't land there full time until 2002. It gave permission to live a different life than what 24 year old me envisioned. The odds of the grass getting greener were pretty low.

Healthcare 40

Healthcare Numbers Retirement Taxes 40