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NY Fed: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

Calculated Risk

Look at the difference in credit scores in the recent period compared to the during the bubble years (2003 through 2006). Recently there have been almost no originations for borrowers with credit scores below 620, and few below 660. A significant majority of recent originations have been to borrowers with credit score above 760.

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Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

Calculated Risk

Look at the difference in credit scores in the recent period compared to the during the bubble years (2003 through 2006). Recently there have been almost no originations for borrowers with credit scores below 620, and few below 660. A significant majority of recent originations have been to borrowers with credit score above 760.

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Why 25 to 54 is the Prime Working Age group for the Participation Rate

Calculated Risk

Here is a graph of the participation rate by age cohort for November (1983, 1993, 2003, 2013 and 2023 NSA). Second, the reason we use the 25 to 54 group is that the participation rate is fairly steady across the entire age spectrum.

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Observations to Start 2023

The Big Picture

– Dot Com Implosion, March 2003 : After making a provisional low in October 2002, the dot com collapse reached its nadir in March 2003 coinciding with the launch of the Iraq invasion by the United States. The rally from those lows were close to a market double by the time we saw the next peak in October 2007.

Economy 328
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7th Inning Stretch

The Big Picture

Events such as the tech/dotcom implosion, the double low in Oct 2002 and March 2003, the Great Financial Crisis in late 2007/early 2008, the lows in March 2009, and more recently, the 2020 pandemic. For context, think about the times when all of the stars lined up and a major reversal was fairly obvious.

Marketing 306
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Strategy of the Week: The Peter Lynch P/E/Growth Investor Model

Validea

Model Performance & Return History Since its inception on Validea in 2003, the 20-stock, monthly rebalanced Peter Lynch-based portfolio has delivered a 1,142.0% Long-Term Performance : With a cumulative return over 1,100% since 2003, the strategy has proven effective for disciplined, long-term investors.

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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

Change in Payroll Jobs per Year (000s) Total, Nonfarm Private Public 1997 3,406 3,211 195 1998 3,048 2,735 313 1999 3,181 2,720 461 2000 1,938 1,674 264 2001 -1,733 -2,284 551 2002 -515 -748 233 2003 125 167 -42 2004 2,038 1,891 147 2005 2,528 2,342 186 2006 2,092 1,883 209 2007 1,145 857 288 2008 -3,549 -3,729 180 2009 -5,041 -4,967 -74 2010 1,027 (..)

Economy 298