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May job growth surprised to the upside with the economy adding a robust 272,000 jobs. Even more impressive is the past four times this happened (1997, 2003, 2009, and 2020) all saw at least double-digit returns. How the consumer is tapped out, the economy is headed for a recession, only a few stocks are going up, and so on endlessly.
Recent sentiment polls show a high number of bears while worries about the economy and earnings continue to expand. Think back to March 2003, March 2009, and March 2020. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
And I always use the exact same example, how will you invest in Google in 1998, or in Facebook in 2003? Conviction, so we look at, you know, whether or not a specific theme is something that we have a high degree of conviction that will be a trend, that will definitely have an impact in the economy over the next two or three decades.
March hit major lows in 2003, 2009, and 2020, amidst negative headlines and sentiment. S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
In addition, credit card debt as a percentage of disposable income is 21%, which is still lower than it was at the end of 2019, when it was 22%, and well beneath the 2003-2019 average of 26%. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
The worries are growing, from a potentially slowing economy, to a growing and more aggressive trade war, to worries over Washington policy. Then five years ago we shut down our economy during a once-a-century pandemic. The economy created 151,000 jobs in February, more or less consistent with expectations.
Geopolitical events can be tragic; yet, in many cases the economy and stock markets take them in stride. Although we continue to believe yields are rising due to an improved economy, stocks will need yields to at least level off before a major rally can take place. economy can continue to avoid a recession on the resilience of the U.S.
And finally, I think it was 2003 or four, I ran into Mitch on the street on, actually on 57th, just around the corner from where we are right now. So any compliance people listening, I’m just spitballing here. There’s a continual, the economy continues to grow. She was based out in Los Angeles. That’s not Mike.
I mean, if you take out the government spending, you probably are on a recession in a private economy. And that’s your focus on government, both fiscal and monetary support for the economy. You’re looking at all these different aspects of the market, of the economy, of, of various government policies.
We had a 100-year pandemic that shut down the global economy and then a second vicious 25% bear market in 2022. Across 2024: Overall household debt grew by 3% Disposable income grew by 5% In some ways, thats what driving the economy, even as households become less levered. Think about all of this a little more.
In fact, the past three times May gained at least 5% the rest of year added 14.4% (1997), 15.4% (2003), and 21.3% (2009). S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
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