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My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Never Had a Chance Against Hard Math of the Market : In years like this one, when just a few big companies outperform, it’s hard to assemble a winning portfolio. The leading economic indicators show the U.S. 2000-2003 Dotcom implosion 6. Sapient Capital ) • If the U.S.
In doing so, I thought this conversation was really quite fascinating, and I think you will also, especially if you’re not only interested in equity, but curious as to how to combine various aspects of market functions, valuation, economic cycle, fed actions into one coherent strategy. But generally starts with the economic cycle.
The Company Lab was the entrepreneurship and economic development center for Chattanooga and the surrounding areas, which include North Georgia, North Alabama, and Southeast Tennessee. RITHOLTZ: What’s some of the economic sectors within that area? RITHOLTZ: Why is it not surprising that a math nerd is also a placekicker?
00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. Things like leading economic indicators, et cetera, are all consistent with historical recessions.
RITHOLTZ: So you launch your own firm IDW in 2003. WEINSTEIN: I think people get comfortable and they feel like, again, it’s economic loss aversion theory at work. By the way congratulations that’s 20 years ago so you’re celebrating a big anniversary this year. Staying put cannot be just the default position.
And I was a math nerd as a kid. I’m going to be skeptical about analyst adjusted earnings and look to free cash flow is a confirming, but, but I also wanna see, is it one of those cases where the analyst adjustments are economically realistic or are they excuses? And the value line has all these statistical patterns.
So that little detour was in 2003. So think about 2003 home prices had gone up a lot from 2000. So mortgage position in 2000 were way more valuable in 2003 than they were when they originated because they weigh less credit risk. Economic occupancy is who’s paying the rent. Sometimes five years.
I mean, there were some advisor pickup, but you had to be kind of on the front edge of finance, or a quant, or running your own models, which in 2003, was not that common. So as much as I’m personally still a pretty strong skeptic of active management, I mean, I understand the math, and the odds are not in your favor.
I started out math and, and physics, and in high school I was a rock star in math and physics. And that persistent until about 2003. Economic data, GDP data, employment data, bond prices, auction, I, I have auction, you know, data going back on a spreadsheet back to the 2000. But those guys are great, right? Interesting.
Colin Camerer : So I, some of it was when I was in college at Johns Hopkins, I, I studied physics and math. Colin Camerer : And then economics, which I really only took a little bit of, a lot fewer than my peers I later competed with in grad school, was kind of in between like the three little bears, you know, it was, there was, I love that.
That’s why the markets are much more of a mind game than a math game. And that’s why markets will always be exceedingly hard, even when the math seems easy or the future seems certain. These experts made a living “analyzing” and pontificating on political and economic developments. And lots of surprises.
in Economics from Chicago and MBA from Stanford. So, I did the math, 20 million times a hundred. So, let me just repeat the math. And so, again, I went through this simple math. Even if you read both of Browder’s books, you will find something to be amazed at. With no further ado, my conversation with Bill Browder.
Professor Stephanie Kelton teaches Public Policy and Economics at SUNY Stony Brook. You get a bachelor’s, a BA and a BS in Economics and Business at California Sacramento, then University of Cambridge, master’s in Philosophy and Economics, then a PhD in economics at the New School. I happened to pick that one.
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