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Picture retiring in 2010 versus 2020. Mutiny makes a point that I've been writing about and have embedded into my process since 2004. There are expectations embedded in these numbers. This is in the neighborhood of sequence of return. Getting that 189% between ages 50 and 60 will be far more impactful than between 25 and 35.
Back in 2004, there were very few bloggers, it was a new thing. My blog was the Forbes blog of the year for 2004 in less than three full months of blogging which should tell you how thin it was back then. The way that number went up though, I don't know if it was a real number or not. I mentioned Seeking Alpha above.
These numbers are pretty encouraging. The biggest takeaway for me here is the cash number. Outside of a retirement account, I see nothing wrong with holding six months of living expenses or something like this. That number fell to 19% in 2018. I wonder if student loans have something to do with this.
So, you start the blog in 2004, more or less. And they do that for 35 years tweaking numbers I go you won, you won the game. Number one, everybody has credit cards, everybody misunderstands how to use them, and there are actually some secret perks that people have no idea about. SETHI: Yes, number one is eating out or dining.
They run long short across each of these, and they’ve put up some pretty impressive numbers over the past couple of years. 00:06:36 [Speaker Changed] So in, in 2004, I joined Morgan Stanley equity research. He, he had retired, retired, but he was still active. It’s beta neutral, market neutral. That was great.
I think because the private equity investing model has been really good for our clients, which are state pension plans, sovereign wealth funds, you know, ensuring the retirement safety of many — tens of millions of people. Probably somewhere around 2004 or ‘05, we started doing things by ourselves. And, you know, why is that?
This article obviously favors more stocks but an interesting thing not said was at what number would it make sense to just flip from individual holdings to mutual funds and ETFs. I've got quite a few names that have been in the portfolio since 2004-2006 when I first started this phase of my career.
One is that a politician who votes to cut benefits or raise the retirement age will probably lose some voter support. Keep in mind that extending the full retirement age (FRA) to 68 or 69 or whatever is a de facto benefit cut. Now comes the grim numbers about how much we have collectively saved for retirement.
And number two, it may interest you to know, here are four or five different funds in the same situation. These are big numbers. I’ll have to be when I retire and publish under Anonymous. And I realized I have his home number. So I’m not sure that that’s so generous on behalf of the founder.
In a related but tangential matter, the number of publicly traded companies in the United States has been cut in half over the last twenty years. As you can see in the chart below from the 2018 IPO Report by WilmerHale, both the number and dollar volume of IPOs have been fairly steady over the last decade. The evidence backs this up.
There's a lot of neat things about 19+ years of blogging, I started in Sept 2004, including circling back around to ideas that we started talking about a longggggg time ago.
So there are a number of us heading in out of college into the BLS. And actually, I was at the PPI, most people may not remember this, but in 2004, the PPI was a month and a half late. And he outlines credit cards, and he outlines mutual funds and money market funds and retirement accounts. I was on the Producer Price Index.
I mean, I could count them on one hand the number of people who have his depth of knowledge in this space. And so, I was doing that in 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004. I — I couldn’t believe the numbers. RITHOLTZ: So — so they, at one point in time, were the number one fund in a lot of specific categories.
So the fact that I had a sociology degree really didn’t impede, I think getting into business Barry Ritholtz : And you end up in like what some would think of as kind of a dry, legalistic part of Fidelity, the ERISA Division, which focuses on retirement accounts. That that’s a serious 01:08:03 [Speaker Changed] Media number.
DAMODARAN: I am interested in numbers. I’m naturally a numbers person. To me, storytelling is much more — I mean, if you think about the history of humanity, for thousands of years, the way we pass down information was with stories, not numbers. It has allowed for this acceleration of number crunching.
In 2004, Jonathan Clements wrote: With the formula that Dalbar uses, stock-fund investors don't earn the full monthly return on any money that they invest during that month. They know they can't touch their retirement accounts until, well, retirement, so psychologically it's easier to invest it all and just be done with it.
And I was kind of intrigued and so I said, can we discuss it, and he laid it out on a conference table and I said, what’s this number? And then I said, what’s this number down here, and he said, this is last year’s earnings. And that number was $160 million. I said, no, that couldn’t be right. RITHOLTZ: Wow.
This was 2004. I mean, I have retired from ABC News, so I have fewer things on my plate, but I host a podcast, which is two, almost three times a week. HARRIS: Okay, so that 12 and a half minute number, I believe comes from a neuroscientist. Tell us about that experience. HARRIS: It was awful. I was filling in as a news reader.
They are a multi-manager, multi-strategy hedge fund that has put up some pretty impressive numbers. And even to this day, I think in terms of like sheer number count, the vast majority of hedge funds are really stock picking hedge funds, long, 00:18:12 [Speaker Changed] Short 11,000 hedge funds out there today. Half is a giant number.
’cause L-I-B-O-R was probably the most important number, certainly in credit, maybe in all of finance. Number one, the economy’s a lot stronger than they thought it was gonna be. We just had a giant number, a giant upside surprise in payrolls. Tell us, I always get the name SOR the new one that replaced it.
It’s sold ungodly numbers of copies, and is on everybody’s best finance books of all-time list. When a professor says, “Come in, we’ll talk about the assignment,” and you come in and say, “I’ve already crunched the number. There’s a number of them in our earnings index that are being overweighted.
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