Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 8, 2023

The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". (a This graph shows the business and non-business bankruptcy filings by calendar year since 1997. a good example of Orwellian named legislation since this was more a "Lender Protection Act").

345

345

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.71% are seriously delinquent (down from 3.83%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.53% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.55%).

Portfolio 353

Portfolio 353

The Big Picture

MAY 6, 2024

Kudos to Ibbotson and Sinquefield for their work, and to Justin Fox for reminding us of their contributions (in 2005!). By Justin Fox Fortune Magazine, December 26, 2005 _ 1. Such was the case with a Justin Fox article “ 9% Forever? ” 2.

Numbers 290

Numbers Investing Investments Marketing 290

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 16, 2023

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP A brief excerpt: In a 2005 post , I included a graph of household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. First, from February 2005 (18 years ago!): Several readers asked if I could update the graph.

Economy 263

Economy 263

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Starting in January 2005, I was very bearish on housing , but I wasn’t sure when the market would turn. However, the increase in inventory in late 2005 (see red arrow on graph) helped me call the top for house prices in 2006.Several Here are a few times when watching existing home inventory helped my analysis.

Economics 290

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 290

A Wealth of Common Sense

NOVEMBER 26, 2024

I entered the workforce in 2005. I’m on vacation for Thanksgiving this week. Here’s one of the most popular posts on the blog from the past year. * That means I’ve been working in the investment business for 20 years now.

Management 135

Management Investing Investments Wealth Management 135

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

The all-time high for August was 110 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for August was 23 thousand in 2010. The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate). In August 2022 (red column), 55 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 55 thousand homes were sold in August.

Sales 363

Sales 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 30, 2022

Starting in January 2005, I was very bearish on housing , but I wasn’t sure when the market would turn. However, the increase in inventory in late 2005 (see red arrow on graph) helped me call the top for house prices in 2006.Several Here are a few times when watching existing home inventory helped my analysis.

Economics 264

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 264

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 8, 2022

This led to a huge surge in inventory starting in late 2005. and some speculators might be forced to sell, but it is unlikely we will see a huge surge in inventory like in late-2005. Now most homeowners have substantial equity, and fixed rate loans with low interest rates.

264

264

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2024

The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". This graph shows the business and non-business bankruptcy filings by calendar year since 1997. 2023 was the 3rd lowest year for bankruptcy filings, and 42% below the pre-pandemic level in 2019.

Economy 331

Economy 331

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 31, 2022

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 4.11% are seriously delinquent (down from 4.45%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.60% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.63%).

Portfolio 328

Portfolio 328

Calculated Risk

JULY 26, 2022

The all-time high for June was 115 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for June was 28 thousand in 2010 and in 2011. The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate). In June 2022 (red column), 49 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 61 thousand homes were sold in June.

Sales 344

Sales 344

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 23, 2022

The all-time high for November was 86 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for November was 20 thousand in 2010. The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate). In November 2022 (red column), 46 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 54 thousand homes were sold in November.

Sales 341

Sales 341

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 22, 2024

The following scatter graph is for the years 2005 through 2023 and compares October retail hiring with the real increase (inflation adjusted) for retail sales (Q4 over previous Q4). Note that in the early '90s, retailers started hiring seasonal workers earlier - and the trend towards hiring earlier has continued.

Retail 268

Retail Sales 268

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

The following graph shows new home sales for three periods: 1978-1982, 2005-2020, and current (red). Here is a graph to illustrate this point. The prior peak in sales is set to 100. When the Fed took their foot off the brake in 1982, new home sales recovered fairly quickly (blue). The same is true for the 1989 -1991 bust (not shown).

Sales 257

Sales Marketing Marketing 257

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 1, 2022

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.95% are seriously delinquent (down from 4.11%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.57% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.60%).

Portfolio 246

Portfolio 246

Calculated Risk

MARCH 27, 2023

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.31% are seriously delinquent (down from 3.40%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.51% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.52%).

Portfolio 246

Portfolio 246

NAIFA Advisor Today

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

He was President and Director of the Society of FSP Central Indiana Chapter from 2002 through 2005. Previously, he served terms on the FSP National Board of Directors from 2011 through 2016.

Ethics 138

Ethics Retirement Planning Education CFP 138

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 10, 2023

January 2008) Lose the News (June 2005) Manage Your Media Diet The post Peak Substack? I have no idea whether its a long-term staple or a flash in the pan, but it feels to me like I am now at peak Substack… Previously : Things I Don’t Care About (January 15th, 2013) What Do You Control? (May appeared first on The Big Picture.

Media 278

Media Management 278

Calculated Risk

JULY 29, 2022

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 4.45% are seriously delinquent (down from 4.67%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (97% of portfolio), 0.63% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.69%).

Portfolio 246

Portfolio 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 18, 2022

Black and light Purple are the maximum sales per month during the bubble (2005) and the minimum sales during the bust (2008 - 2011). The third graph shows existing home sales for each month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), for a few selected periods. The most recent four years are shown (2019 through 2022). Sales NSA in July (453,000) were 22.4%

Sales 249

Sales Marketing Marketing 249

The Big Picture

JANUARY 20, 2023

Breakaway : For only the 25 th time since World War II (an average of once every 3 1/2 years), the Dow Jones Industrials registered what technician Walter Deemer calls “breakaway momentum” (or “breadth thrust”).

Retail 298

Retail Banking Marketing Marketing 298

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 29, 2022

Professor Jeremy Siegel at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is frequently voted Best professor at Wharton, and is the author of Stocks for the Long Run , Jeremy Schwartz is CIO at Wisdom Tree Asset Management , where he has worked since May 2005.

Assets 298

Assets Financial Market Investing Investments 298

The Big Picture

AUGUST 9, 2023

Previously : Earnings Ex -Inflation, There is No Inflation (September 26, 2005) Inflation Ex-Deflation (this time, INCLUDING energy) (June 22, 2012) CPI: Imperfect But Useful (May 24, 2022) The post What Earnings Recession? appeared first on The Big Picture.

Communication 246

Communication Banking Numbers 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 26, 2022

The all-time high for September was 99 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for September was 24 thousand in 2011. In September 2022 (red column), 49 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 58 thousand homes were sold in September. I'll have more later today.

Sales 245

Sales 245

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2023

The all-time high for December was 87 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for December was 23 thousand in 2010. The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate). In December 2022 (red column), 47 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 61 thousand homes were sold in November.

Sales 246

Sales 246

Calculated Risk

MARCH 26, 2023

I used to track this quarterly back in 2005 and 2006 to point out that households were taking on excessive financial obligations. The Fed's Household Debt Service ratio through Q4 2022 was released last week: Household Debt Service and Financial Obligations Ratios.

Numbers 244

Numbers 244

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 23, 2022

The all-time high for July was 117 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for July was 26 thousand in 2010. The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate). In July 2022 (red column), 42 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 62 thousand homes were sold in July. I'll have more later today.

Sales 233

Sales 233

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 15, 2024

In a 2005 post , I included a graph of household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. First, from February 2005 (19 years ago!): The bottom line remains the same: There will not be cascading price declines in this cycle due to distressed sales. Several readers asked if I could update the graph.

Economy 162

Economy Sales 162

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Lose the News (June 2005). Eventually, that program became ABC’s Nightline, which Koppel hosted until November 2005. Re-Engineer Your Media Diet (February 2, 2017). More Signal, Less Noise (October 25, 2013). The Price of Paying Attention (November 2012). Who Do You Trust? January 2008). Manage Your Media Diet. __.

Financial Advice 290

Financial Advice Media Engineering Advertising 290

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Here is a table of the annual change in real GDP since 2005. Real GDP Growth Year Annual GDP Q4 / Q4 2005 3.5% Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust. Prior to the pandemic, economic activity was mostly in the 2% range since 2010.

Economy 278

Economy Sales Economics Investing 278

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

The all-time high for October was 105 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for October was 23 thousand in 2010. The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate). In October 2022 (red column), 48 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 51 thousand homes were sold in October.

Sales 219

Sales 219

The Big Picture

AUGUST 20, 2022

The founder and CEO of Hermitage Capital Management, which was the investment adviser to the largest foreign investment fund in Russia until 2005, Browder is also the author of “ Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder and One Man’s Fight for Justice.”

Government 290

Government Assets Media Management 290

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2024

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 2.44% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.53%). Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report but are not reported to the credit bureaus.

Portfolio 195

Portfolio 195

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Change in Payroll Jobs per Year (000s) Total, Nonfarm Private Public 1997 3,406 3,211 195 1998 3,048 2,735 313 1999 3,181 2,720 461 2000 1,938 1,674 264 2001 -1,733 -2,284 551 2002 -515 -748 233 2003 125 167 -42 2004 2,038 1,891 147 2005 2,528 2,342 186 2006 2,092 1,883 209 2007 1,145 857 288 2008 -3,549 -3,729 180 2009 -5,041 -4,967 -74 2010 1,027 (..)

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 22, 2022

Before joining Morningstar in 2005, Norton was an economist with the Bureau of Labor Statistics and a research analyst at LECG LLC. The firm manages or advises on about $250 billion in advisor assets. Norton’s responsibilities include equity, alternative and fixed income research, asset allocation, and portfolio management.

Management 230

Management Investing Investments Portfolio Management 230

A Wealth of Common Sense

MARCH 10, 2024

I entered the workforce in 2005. That means I’ve been working in the investment business for 20 years now. The longer I’m in the money management business the more there is to learn but these are some of the things I’ve learned thus far: 1. Experiences shape your perception of risk.

Management 145

Management Investing Investments Wealth Management 145