A Wealth of Common Sense

MARCH 10, 2024

I entered the workforce in 2005. That means I’ve been working in the investment business for 20 years now. The longer I’m in the money management business the more there is to learn but these are some of the things I’ve learned thus far: 1. Experiences shape your perception of risk.

Management 145

Management Investing Investments Wealth Management 145

The Big Picture

AUGUST 20, 2022

The founder and CEO of Hermitage Capital Management, which was the investment adviser to the largest foreign investment fund in Russia until 2005, Browder is also the author of “ Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder and One Man’s Fight for Justice.”

Government 290

Government Assets Media Management 290

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 22, 2022

Before joining Morningstar in 2005, Norton was an economist with the Bureau of Labor Statistics and a research analyst at LECG LLC. The firm manages or advises on about $250 billion in advisor assets. Norton’s responsibilities include equity, alternative and fixed income research, asset allocation, and portfolio management.

Management 230

Management Investing Investments Portfolio Management 230

The Big Picture

MARCH 1, 2024

Snyderman, who joined Magnetar in 2005 shortly after its launch, was previously the head of global credit and a senior managing director at Citadel Investment Group, and he served as a member of the management, portfolio management and investment/risk committees.

Portfolio Management 182

Portfolio Management Management Portfolio Investing 182

The Big Picture

MARCH 18, 2024

Housing was featured on the cover in 2005, which was near the top of the housing boom and bust. Time named Amazon.com Inc. chief Jeff Bezos as Person of the Year in December 1999 as the dot-com bubble was about to burst (true, Amazon stock went nowhere for a decade, but since then the shares have increased roughly 15-fold).

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Media Investing 336

A Wealth of Common Sense

NOVEMBER 26, 2024

I entered the workforce in 2005. I’m on vacation for Thanksgiving this week. Here’s one of the most popular posts on the blog from the past year. * That means I’ve been working in the investment business for 20 years now.

Management 143

Management Investing Investments Wealth Management 143

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 25, 2023

Layton , who joined Partners Group in 2005, leads the firm’s executive team and global executive board and is also a member of the global investment committee. David Layton is the chief executive officer of Partners Group , a global private markets firm with more than $135 billion in assets under management.

Assets 37

Assets Consulting Management Investing 37

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Starting in January 2005, I was very bearish on housing , but I wasn’t sure when the market would turn. However, the increase in inventory in late 2005 (see red arrow on graph) helped me call the top for house prices in 2006.Several Here are a few times when watching existing home inventory helped my analysis.

Economics 116

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 116

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.83% are seriously delinquent (down from 3.95%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.55% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.57%).

Portfolio 145

Portfolio 145

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 28, 2022

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.49% are seriously delinquent (down from 3.71%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.52% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.53%).

Portfolio 144

Portfolio 144

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 8, 2023

Starting in January 2005, I was very bearish on housing , but I wasn’t sure when the market would turn. However, the increase in inventory in late 2005 (see red arrow on graph below) helped me call the top for house prices in 2006. Here is an update to that post with a few additional comments. Speculative bubbles can go on and on.

Marketing 116

Marketing Marketing 116

Calculated Risk

APRIL 28, 2023

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.11% are seriously delinquent (down from 3.31%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.48% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.51%).

Portfolio 143

Portfolio 143

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 30, 2023

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.49% are seriously delinquent (unchanged from 3.49%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.53% are seriously delinquent (up from 0.52%).

Portfolio 142

Portfolio 142

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 8, 2023

The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". (a This graph shows the business and non-business bankruptcy filings by calendar year since 1997. a good example of Orwellian named legislation since this was more a "Lender Protection Act").

138

138

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.71% are seriously delinquent (down from 3.83%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.53% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.55%).

Portfolio 141

Portfolio 141

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 14, 2023

For most of Human history, when a technologically advanced civilization encounters a vastly technologically society, it usually means extinction for those with inferior tools and weapons.

Investing 299

Investing Investments Management Insurance 299

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 16, 2023

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP A brief excerpt: In a 2005 post , I included a graph of household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. First, from February 2005 (18 years ago!): Several readers asked if I could update the graph.

Economy 105

Economy 105

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2024

The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". This graph shows the business and non-business bankruptcy filings by calendar year since 1997. 2023 was the 3rd lowest year for bankruptcy filings, and 42% below the pre-pandemic level in 2019.

Economy 132

Economy 132

The Big Picture

AUGUST 21, 2023

Joe Keohane Boston Globe, January 9, 2011 ( Mirror ) How to Get Rich and Famous From a Stock Market Crash By Spencer Jakab WSJ, Aug.

Marketing 246

Marketing Marketing Sales Management 246

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

The all-time high for August was 110 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for August was 23 thousand in 2010. The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate). In August 2022 (red column), 55 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 55 thousand homes were sold in August.

Sales 145

Sales 145

Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 19, 2022

This summer, the Financial Planning Association (FPA) announced a new multi-year advocacy goal to pursue legal recognition for the title of "Financial Planner", as a means for bona fide financial planners to distinguish themselves and their services from others (who may use the title but don't actually do financial planning), to help consumers understand (..)

Financial Planner 243

Financial Planner CFP Certified Financial Planner Financial Planning 243

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 30, 2022

Starting in January 2005, I was very bearish on housing , but I wasn’t sure when the market would turn. However, the increase in inventory in late 2005 (see red arrow on graph) helped me call the top for house prices in 2006.Several Here are a few times when watching existing home inventory helped my analysis.

Economics 105

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 105

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 8, 2022

This led to a huge surge in inventory starting in late 2005. and some speculators might be forced to sell, but it is unlikely we will see a huge surge in inventory like in late-2005. Now most homeowners have substantial equity, and fixed rate loans with low interest rates.

105

105

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 31, 2022

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 4.11% are seriously delinquent (down from 4.45%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.60% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.63%).

Portfolio 131

Portfolio 131

The Big Picture

AUGUST 8, 2023

60 Years of Uncertainty Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, Davide Furceri IMF, March 2020 _ 1.

Distribution 246

Distribution Economics Communication Media 246

Nerd's Eye View

MARCH 19, 2024

What's unique about Meredith, though, is how she was able to keep her firm open, navigating through and ultimately growing to more than $1M of annual revenue, despite a diagnosis in 2005 of a 7cm Glioblastoma tumor in her brain, resulting in several years of major surgeries, radiation treatments, and chemotherapies, all the while continuing to see (..)

Financial Advisor 189

Financial Advisor Recruitment Clients Assets 189

Calculated Risk

JULY 26, 2022

The all-time high for June was 115 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for June was 28 thousand in 2010 and in 2011. The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate). In June 2022 (red column), 49 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 61 thousand homes were sold in June.

Sales 137

Sales 137

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 23, 2022

The all-time high for November was 86 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for November was 20 thousand in 2010. The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate). In November 2022 (red column), 46 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 54 thousand homes were sold in November.

Sales 136

Sales 136

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 22, 2024

The following scatter graph is for the years 2005 through 2023 and compares October retail hiring with the real increase (inflation adjusted) for retail sales (Q4 over previous Q4). Note that in the early '90s, retailers started hiring seasonal workers earlier - and the trend towards hiring earlier has continued.

Retail 107

Retail Sales 107

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

The following graph shows new home sales for three periods: 1978-1982, 2005-2020, and current (red). Here is a graph to illustrate this point. The prior peak in sales is set to 100. When the Fed took their foot off the brake in 1982, new home sales recovered fairly quickly (blue). The same is true for the 1989 -1991 bust (not shown).

Sales 102

Sales Marketing Marketing 102

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 1, 2022

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.95% are seriously delinquent (down from 4.11%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.57% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.60%).

Portfolio 98

Portfolio 98

Calculated Risk

MARCH 27, 2023

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.31% are seriously delinquent (down from 3.40%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.51% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.52%).

Portfolio 98

Portfolio 98

Advisor Perspectives

JANUARY 4, 2023

The moving average for the per-capita Light Vehicle Sales series peaked in 2005. Over fifteen years later, it is now down 22% from that peak.

Sales 72

Sales 72

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

Eddy Elfenbein and Cullen Roche came a long shortly after me, sometime in 2005 I believe and Tadas Viskanta from Abnormal Returns also started in 2005. I started to contribute posts to them in 2005, the first article there was about TIPS ETFs. The first one was writing for TheStreet.com from 2005 to early 2014.

Numbers 81

Numbers Taxes Investing Investments 81

Calculated Risk

JULY 29, 2022

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 4.45% are seriously delinquent (down from 4.67%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (97% of portfolio), 0.63% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.69%).

Portfolio 98

Portfolio 98

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 18, 2022

Black and light Purple are the maximum sales per month during the bubble (2005) and the minimum sales during the bust (2008 - 2011). The third graph shows existing home sales for each month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), for a few selected periods. The most recent four years are shown (2019 through 2022). Sales NSA in July (453,000) were 22.4%

Sales 99

Sales Marketing Marketing 99

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 15, 2024

In a 2005 post , I included a graph of household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. First, from February 2005 (19 years ago!): The bottom line remains the same: There will not be cascading price declines in this cycle due to distressed sales. Several readers asked if I could update the graph.

Economy 64

Economy Sales 64