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Bull or Bear?

The Big Picture

The bearish signals I am gathering for next week seem to be primarily fundamental or economic in nature… Previously : Observations to Start 2023 (January 3, 2023) Groping for a Bottom (October 14, 2022) The post Bull or Bear? It is noteworthy that most of the bullish signals are market-based or technical in nature.

Retail 298
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MiB: Andrew Slimmon, Morgan Stanley Investment Management

The Big Picture

His approach combines quantitative strategy with behavioral economics. billion in client assets, and has created over $11 billion of net P&L across all strategies since its 2005 inception. Owning 150-200 names invariably creates a portfolio with a low active share — meaning it is an expensive index-like product.

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24/7 Financial Advice

The Big Picture

What are you getting from consuming 24/7 coverage of the world of economics, markets, and finance? Lose the News (June 2005). Eventually, that program became ABC’s Nightline, which Koppel hosted until November 2005. Viewership soared… ~~~. How does all of this “free financial advice” impact your collective psyche?

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What’s Wrong With Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indexes

The Big Picture

It is a “monthly measure of how unpredictable overall economic conditions are 1 month, 3 months, and 1 year ahead.” But “uncertainty” as that word is commonly used on Wall Street 1 seems to be correlated with concerns about faltering economic conditions and/or rising market volatility. And I am okay with that.

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Question #10 for 2024: Will inventory increase further in 2024?

Calculated Risk

Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Starting in January 2005, I was very bearish on housing , but I wasn’t sure when the market would turn. However, the increase in inventory in late 2005 (see red arrow on graph) helped me call the top for house prices in 2006.Several

Economics 116
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Question #10 for 2023: Will inventory increase further in 2023?

Calculated Risk

Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Starting in January 2005, I was very bearish on housing , but I wasn’t sure when the market would turn. However, the increase in inventory in late 2005 (see red arrow on graph) helped me call the top for house prices in 2006.Several

Economics 105
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Question #1 for 2023: How much will the economy grow in 2023? Will there be a recession in 2023?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. Here is a table of the annual change in real GDP since 2005. Q4-over-Q4 in 2023. 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy 111