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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023.

Economy 119
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Question #1 for 2023: How much will the economy grow in 2023? Will there be a recession in 2023?

Calculated Risk

1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Defaulting on the debt with an already weak economy will likely push the economy into recession. Real GDP Growth Year Annual GDP Q4 / Q4 2005 3.5%

Economy 111
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The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP A brief excerpt: In a 2005 post , I included a graph of household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. First, from February 2005 (18 years ago!): wouldn't take a RE bust to impact the general economy.

Economy 105
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U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Increase 17 Percent in 2023; 42% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

Calculated Risk

Bankruptcies fell especially sharply after the pandemic began in early 2020, despite some COVID-related disruptions to the economy. The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 132
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Question #1 for 2024: How much will the economy grow in 2024? Will there be a recession in 2024?

Calculated Risk

How much will the economy grow in 2024? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2023, even though some key indicators suggested a possible recession, the FOMC was forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts were forecasting an economic recession. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 80
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The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP

Calculated Risk

In a 2005 post , I included a graph of household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. First, from February 2005 (19 years ago!): It wouldn't take a RE bust to impact the general economy. Just a slowdown in both volume (to impact employment) and in prices (to slow down borrowing) might push the general economy into recession.

Economy 64
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Market Commentary: Good News Is Good News

Carson Wealth

Strong economic growth and better data should be viewed positively, as it shows the economy isn’t falling into a recession. The economy ran above trend last year, despite high interest rates. Economy: This Time Was Different, and That’s a Big Deal The U.S. economy grew 5.8% And that is what is happening now.