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US Equities: 9% Forever?

The Big Picture

” The guys who made that prediction: Rex Sinquefield, co-founder of Dimensional Funds (DFA) which now runs about 677 billion; and Roger Ibbotson, professor at Yale, and winner of too many awards to count for his contributions to investing theory. By Justin Fox Fortune Magazine, December 26, 2005 _ 1. ” 2.

Numbers 290
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MiB: Marta Norton, Morningstar Investment Management

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Marta Norton, Chief Investment Officer for Morningstar Investment Management (MIM ). Before joining Morningstar in 2005, Norton was an economist with the Bureau of Labor Statistics and a research analyst at LECG LLC. The firm manages or advises on about $250 billion in advisor assets.

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MiB: Andrew Slimmon, Morgan Stanley Investment Management

The Big Picture

 This week, we speak with Andrew Slimmon , managing director at Morgan Stanley Investment Management , where he leads the Applied Equity Advisors team. He began his career at Morgan Stanley in 1991 as an adviser in private wealth management, and later served as chief investment officer of the Morgan Stanley Trust Co.

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20 Lessons From 20 Years of Managing Money

A Wealth of Common Sense

I entered the workforce in 2005. That means I’ve been working in the investment business for 20 years now. I’m on vacation for Thanksgiving this week. Here’s one of the most popular posts on the blog from the past year. *

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MiB: The Jeremies! Schwartz and Siegel on SFTLR!

The Big Picture

Professor Jeremy Siegel at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is frequently voted Best professor at Wharton, and is the author of Stocks for the Long Run , Jeremy Schwartz is CIO at Wisdom Tree Asset Management , where he has worked since May 2005. Favorite Books of Jeremy Siegel + Jeremy Schwartz.

Assets 298
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MiB: Bill Browder on Finance, Murder and Justice

The Big Picture

The founder and CEO of Hermitage Capital Management, which was the investment adviser to the largest foreign investment fund in Russia until 2005, Browder is also the author of “ Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder and One Man’s Fight for Justice.”

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Question #1 for 2023: How much will the economy grow in 2023? Will there be a recession in 2023?

Calculated Risk

One of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting uses new home sales (also housing starts and residential investment). Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly. Residential investment has also peaked. Here is a table of the annual change in real GDP since 2005.

Economy 278