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US Equities: 9% Forever?

The Big Picture

Much of it reflects the bad ideas and numbers, and worse advice, that float around Wall Street. Calculating returns back to May 1974 gives us numbers that look like this: S&P 500 Index annualized generated gains of 8.44%; if you reinvested the dividends, the annualized gains were 11.43%.2 A lot of it has not aged well.

Numbers 290
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What Earnings Recession?

The Big Picture

We will see something similar in the next few CPI reports, as the hottest year-ago numbers drop off from the 12-month series. I am normally skittish about showing things “ Ex ” anything — recall my mid-2000s fisking on Inflation Ex Inflation — but in this case, the framing reveals rather than hides what is going on.

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Fed: Q4 2022 Household Debt Service Ratio Still Low

Calculated Risk

I used to track this quarterly back in 2005 and 2006 to point out that households were taking on excessive financial obligations. This data has limited value in terms of absolute numbers, but is useful in looking at trends. The Mortgage DSR and the Consumer DSR sum to the DSR.

Numbers 244
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Some More Good News for Homebuilders

Calculated Risk

Here is an updated graph from the previous posts showing new home sales from the Census Bureau for four periods: 1978-1982, 1989 -1993, 2005-2020, and current (red). See: New Home Sales and Cancellations for a discussion on how cancellations impact the Census’ sales numbers. There is much more in the article.

Sales 130
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Twenty Years Of Blogging! Part 1

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Eddy Elfenbein and Cullen Roche came a long shortly after me, sometime in 2005 I believe and Tadas Viskanta from Abnormal Returns also started in 2005. I started to contribute posts to them in 2005, the first article there was about TIPS ETFs. The way that number went up though, I don't know if it was a real number or not.

Numbers 81
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Bitcoin Historical Annual Returns (10 Years, 5 Years, 3 Years, 1 Year)

Good Financial Cents

Initial Price Number of Bitcoins purchased Final Value 10 years (2013-2023) $13.30 Year Bitcoin Return (%) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Return (%) 2005 – 17.76 Year Bitcoin Return (%) Vanguard Real Estate ETF Return (%) 2005 – 12 2006 – 35.2 3,839,387,524,500% 10 years (2013-2023) $1,106.75 $29,310.44 75.19 $2,203,358.14 2011 1,473 9.57

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Markets stall as investors are reminded about the continued headwinds

Nationwide Financial

A Bank of America survey shows that private clients have an allocation to equities of 64%, down slightly from the 66% earlier in the year, but well above the 56% average since 2005. Real wages have been negative for 16 straight months, forcing an increasing number of families to rely on credit cards for everyday spending.