Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 13, 2024

Look at the difference in credit scores in the recent period compared to the during the bubble years (2003 through 2006). Recently there have been almost no originations for borrowers with credit scores below 620, and few below 660. A significant majority of recent originations have been to borrowers with credit score above 760.

62

62

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 27, 2024

In December 2006, my friend Doris "Tanta" Dungey started writing for Calculated Risk. From December 2006, until she passed away from ovarian cancer on Nov 30, 2008, Tanta was my co-blogger. In 2006, Tanta was diagnosed with late stage cancer, and she took an extended medical leave while undergoing treatment.

Medical 70

Medical Sales Accounting Portfolio 70

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2024

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and BEA's estimate for July (red). The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for July this morning. Click on graph for larger image. Sales in July (15.82 million SAAR) were up 4.2% from June, and down 0.8% from July 2023. million.

Sales 76

Sales 76

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

The four largest drops occurred during distinct periods of economic distress: 1990 (recession), 2006-09 (GFC), 2020 (pandemic/recession), and today (FOMC 300 bp rate hike). This brings us to the chart: The one above shows the traffic of prospective buyers looking at a new home (2014- 2022); the one below goes back to the 1980s.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 363

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

The second table shows the change in construction and manufacturing payrolls starting in 2006. Job growth slowed in 2023 but was still historically strong.

Economy 117

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 117

Zoe Financial

NOVEMBER 18, 2024

Overall, consumer balance sheets are in strong shape , especially when compared to the Great Recession (2006-2007). Discretionary income is currently around 11% , lower than the 13% seen in 2006-2007. Stay tuned for next week. Andres Disclosure: This material provided by Zoe Financial is for informational purposes only.

Marketing 40

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 40

oXYGen Financial

APRIL 30, 2023

Named after the Senator of Delaware William Roth, the Roth IRA was created in 1998 and its employer plan counterpart the Roth 401k was created in 2006. How a Roth accounts works: ]]

Retirement 105

Retirement Accounting Taxes Planning 105

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 26, 2024

In the July Case-Shiller house price index on Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 74% above the bubble peak in 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the bubble peak.

Numbers 109

Numbers 109

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 1, 2024

In the May Case-Shiller house price index released on Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 73% above the bubble peak in 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.9% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been 18 years since the bubble peak.

116

116

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 1, 2024

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards' estimate for August (red). Despite downturns in Q2 and Q3 of 0.5% and 1.9%, respectively, Q1’s strong 4.9% increase was enough to keep year-to-date volume through September above the year-ago total, albeit less than 1%. Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 78

Sales 78

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 13, 2023

November 3, 2006) Tracking NAR Spin (April 23rd, 2008) Realtors Get Real (March 2007) Pending Home Sales Index, NAR Housing Market “Bottoms” (January 2008) How Counter-Productive is Realtor Association Spin?

Numbers 293

Numbers Sales Management Marketing 293

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 11, 2022

Here is the expanded series from the MBA of mortgage credit availability that includes the bubble years (2004 - 2006). Look at that huge increase in mortgage credit availability back in the 2004 - 2006 period (remember “fog a mirror, get a loan”, NINJA loans: No Income, No Job or Assets?).

Sales 102

Sales Assets 102

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2024

In the August Case-Shiller house price index on Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 75% above the bubble peak in 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the bubble peak.

Numbers 80

Numbers 80

Calculated Risk

JUNE 2, 2023

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and BEA's estimate for May (red). The BEA estimates sales of 15.05 million SAAR in May 2023 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 6.5% from the April sales rate, and up 19.6% from May 2022. Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 144

Sales Marketing Marketing 144

The Irrelevant Investor

SEPTEMBER 20, 2022

That hasn’t happened since 2006. I heard Cousin Sal say the previous 2,200 times a team was up that much with that little time remaining, they won. Wild stuff. The Dolphins came back after being down 21 points going into the fourth quarter. Tua Tagovaila had six touchdowns. The Lions, which have been one of the w.

121

121

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for October (red). Wards Auto estimates sales of 14.90 million SAAR in October 2022 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 10.4% from the September sales rate, and up 12.7% from October 2021. Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 143

Sales 143

Calculated Risk

JUNE 3, 2024

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for May (red). Other sectors during the first five months of 2024 have either recorded sporadic gains or fell into steady decline, including some, such as fullsize pickups, that are coming off lengthy periods of strong results. Sales in May (15.90

Sales 83

Sales Marketing Marketing 83

A Wealth of Common Sense

MARCH 19, 2023

It was the highest level since the summer of 2006. Last week Wednesday two year treasury yields closed the day at 5.05%. That’s a pretty juicy yield for short-term government bonds. Unfortunately, it didn’t last. Look at the plunge in rates since the banking crisis took hold late last week: It looks like a stock market crash.

Government 97

Government Banking Marketing Marketing 97

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 8, 2023

The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". (a Non-business bankruptcy filings fell 6.3 percent, to 374,240, compared with 399,269 in the previous year. Click on graph for larger image.

138

138

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2023

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for September (red). Hard to say exactly how much but sales could have been slightly stronger in September if not for some lost inventory caused by production cuts related to plant shutdowns from UAW strikes at Ford, General Motors and Stellantis.

Sales 134

Sales Marketing Marketing 134

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 30, 2022

In the Case-Shiller release Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 65% above the bubble peak in 2006. above the bubble peak in early 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 15% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).

98

98

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2024

The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". Despite the recent increases, the newest totals remain far lower than in December 2010, when filings peaked at just less than 1.6 Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 131

Economy 131

Calculated Risk

JULY 2, 2024

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for June (red). The disruptions caused quarterly sales to decline year-over-year for the first time since Q3-2022, as deliveries totaled 4.075 million units, down 0.4% from April-June 2023. The Q2 SAAR of 15.7 Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 80

Sales 80

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2024

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for April (red). Sales in the first four months of 2024 totaled 5.1 million units, up 3% from January-April 2023’s 4.9 Click on graph for larger image. Sales in April (15.74 million SAAR) were up 1.6% from March, and up 0.4% from April 2023.

Sales 85

Sales 85

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 31, 2022

In the Case-Shiller release yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 66% above the bubble peak in 2006. above the bubble peak in early 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 16% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).

98

98

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 20, 2022

Cerberus Capital Management paid $350 million in 2006 for struggling Albertsons stores as a real estate play. In the years since, the private equity firm has added to its stake, bulked up through acquisitions and (repeatedly) tried to part with the U.S.

Management 99

Management 99

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 23, 2023

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Gary Cohn , Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and Director of the National Economic Council from 2017-2018; he was President and Chief Operating Officer of The Goldman Sachs Group from 2006-2016. Currently, he is Vice Chairman of IBM.

Management 176

Management Medical Portfolio Management Economics 176

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 27, 2022

In the Case-Shiller release Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 64% above the bubble peak in 2006. below the recent peak in early 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.3% Below Peak Excerpt: It has been over 16 years since the bubble peak.

95

95

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 8, 2023

However, the increase in inventory in late 2005 (see red arrow on graph below) helped me call the top for house prices in 2006. Starting in January 2005, I was very bearish on housing , but I wasn’t sure when the market would turn. Speculative bubbles can go on and on.

Marketing 114

Marketing Marketing 114

Calculated Risk

JULY 27, 2022

In the Case-Shiller release yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 65% above the bubble peak in 2006. above the bubble peak in early 2006.In However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 16% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).

98

98

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2024

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for February (red). The combined December-February seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.7 million units is more indicative of current demand, despite the gyrations of the past three months. Click on graph for larger image. Sales in February (15.81

Sales 85

Sales Marketing Marketing 85

Calculated Risk

APRIL 2, 2024

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for March (red). The trend was largely true over the entire first quarter, as deliveries of more affordable vehicles led the three-month period to a 5.1% year-over-year gain. Click on graph for larger image. Sales in March (15.49 from March 2023.

Sales 91

Sales Marketing Marketing 91

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 8, 2024

In the June Case-Shiller house price index released last week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 73% above the bubble peak in 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.9% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the bubble peak.

70

70

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 2, 2023

One victim said they “felt a bit violated really.” ( 404 Media ) Be sure to check out our Masters in Business with Gary Cohn , Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and Director of the National Economic Council from 2017-2018; he was President and Chief Operating Officer of The Goldman Sachs Group from 2006-2016.

Economics 245

Economics Banking Accounting Media 245

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 30, 2023

In the June Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 65% above the bubble peak in 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.6%

114

114

Alpha Architect

JULY 21, 2022

Using multiple short sale measures, we examine the predictive power of short sales for future stock returns in 38 countries from July 2006 to December 2014. We find that the days-to-cover ratio and the utilization ratio measures have the most robust predictive power for future stock returns in the global capital market.

Sales 113

Sales Marketing Marketing 113

MarketWatch

MARCH 24, 2023

Known for Moore’s Law — or the idea that the number of transistors in a chip will roughly double every two years — Moore served a variety of executive roles at the chip maker, and retired from the company in 2006. In 2000, he and his wife established the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation in 2000.

Retirement 98

Retirement Numbers Marketing Marketing 98