A Wealth of Common Sense

APRIL 2, 2024

The unemployment rate in America averaged nearly 7% from 2006 through the end of 2015: It was hard for young people to find work. Millennials around my age group graduated into the teeth of the Great Financial Crisis. The labor market stunk and not just for a short while. There was a lot of this going around: Just be happy you even ha.

Marketing 145

Marketing Marketing 145

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 17, 2022

ESPN ) see also Roger Federer as Religious Experience : (Published 2006) ( New York Times ). His career has been a tale of mind and body working together like clockwork, to create an aesthetically delightful state of tennis — and also a method which has led to incredible success. He co-founded 5 companies; was President of del.icio.us

Engineering 298

Engineering Food Management Government 298

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 20, 2022

Here’s how much : When Toll Brothers CEO Bob Toll tried to say the housing market had bottomed out in 2006, Zelman famously quipped back, “Which Kool-Aid are you drinking, because I want some.” . • ‘Poison’ Ivy Zelman—the analyst who predicted the 2008 housing bust—sees U.S. home prices falling in both 2023 and 2024.

Taxes 295

Taxes Banking Education Sales 295

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 13, 2023

Not that different from the tulip mania (see the picture below), the dot-com boom, or the house flippers and mortgage boom of 2006-2008 (see the Big Short for similar stories of excess). Indeed, Faux’s book isn’t really about crypto it’s about the rise and collapse of a bubble and the consequent madness of crowds.

Numbers 317

Numbers Government Assets Management 317

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 2, 2023

One victim said they “felt a bit violated really.” ( 404 Media ) Be sure to check out our Masters in Business with Gary Cohn , Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and Director of the National Economic Council from 2017-2018; he was President and Chief Operating Officer of The Goldman Sachs Group from 2006-2016.

Economics 245

Economics Banking Accounting Government 245

A Wealth of Common Sense

MARCH 19, 2023

It was the highest level since the summer of 2006. Last week Wednesday two year treasury yields closed the day at 5.05%. That’s a pretty juicy yield for short-term government bonds. Unfortunately, it didn’t last. Look at the plunge in rates since the banking crisis took hold late last week: It looks like a stock market crash.

Government 133

Government Banking Marketing Marketing 133

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 9, 2023

Previously : MiB: Bethany McLean, Enron, and Wall Street’s Promotion Machine (March 22, 2016) Exonerating the Shorts (March 28, 2010) Banning Short Selling (July 4, 2009) The Backward Business of Short Selling (March 1, 2006) Sources : The Three Profit Centres of Short Selling – Update Russell Clark, October 6 2023 [link] The Three Profit Centres (..)

Banking 331

Banking Media Clients Marketing 331

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for October (red). Wards Auto estimates sales of 14.90 million SAAR in October 2022 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 10.4% from the September sales rate, and up 12.7% from October 2021. Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 143

Sales 143

The Big Picture

APRIL 18, 2023

Daily Beast ) • Return of the Kings : Playoff basketball is back in Sacramento for the first time since 2006. In other words, Twitter Inc. no longer exists. ( This season’s run has delighted a long-suffering and devoted fan base, but the Kings aren’t satisfied. New York Times ) see also Red states are trying to make their own rules.

Engineering 278

Engineering Economics Taxes Economy 278

Calculated Risk

JUNE 2, 2023

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and BEA's estimate for May (red). The BEA estimates sales of 15.05 million SAAR in May 2023 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 6.5% from the April sales rate, and up 19.6% from May 2022. Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 144

Sales Marketing Marketing 144

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 8, 2023

The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". (a Non-business bankruptcy filings fell 6.3 percent, to 374,240, compared with 399,269 in the previous year. Click on graph for larger image.

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138

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

The second table shows the change in construction and manufacturing payrolls starting in 2006. Job growth slowed in 2023 but was still historically strong.

Economy 119

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 119

The Irrelevant Investor

SEPTEMBER 20, 2022

That hasn’t happened since 2006. I heard Cousin Sal say the previous 2,200 times a team was up that much with that little time remaining, they won. Wild stuff. The Dolphins came back after being down 21 points going into the fourth quarter. Tua Tagovaila had six touchdowns. The Lions, which have been one of the w.

121

121

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 14, 2023

For most of Human history, when a technologically advanced civilization encounters a vastly technologically society, it usually means extinction for those with inferior tools and weapons.

Investing 299

Investing Investments Management Insurance 299

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 23, 2023

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Gary Cohn , Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and Director of the National Economic Council from 2017-2018; he was President and Chief Operating Officer of The Goldman Sachs Group from 2006-2016. Currently, he is Vice Chairman of IBM.

Management 182

Management Medical Portfolio Management Economics 182

Nerd's Eye View

MARCH 27, 2024

One method introduced by Jonathan Guyton and William Klinger in 2006 is the "guardrails" framework.

Retirement 190

Retirement Portfolio Clients Financial Advisor 190

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2024

The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". Despite the recent increases, the newest totals remain far lower than in December 2010, when filings peaked at just less than 1.6 Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 132

Economy 132

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 4, 2024

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards' estimate for Augus (red). Calendar-year 2024 sales through August totaled 10.5 million units, 2.2% above like-2023’s 10.3 Click on graph for larger image. Sales in August (15.13 million SAAR) were down 4.3% from July, and down 1.1% from August 2023. million.

Sales 115

Sales 115

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 11, 2022

Here is the expanded series from the MBA of mortgage credit availability that includes the bubble years (2004 - 2006). Look at that huge increase in mortgage credit availability back in the 2004 - 2006 period (remember “fog a mirror, get a loan”, NINJA loans: No Income, No Job or Assets?).

Sales 104

Sales Assets 104

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2022

The higher cost of homeownership has clearly eroded affordability, as inflation-adjusted monthly mortgage expenses are now even higher than they were at their former peak in 2006.” emphasis added

Marketing 145

Marketing Marketing 145

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2023

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for September (red). Hard to say exactly how much but sales could have been slightly stronger in September if not for some lost inventory caused by production cuts related to plant shutdowns from UAW strikes at Ford, General Motors and Stellantis.

Sales 135

Sales Marketing Marketing 135

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 20, 2022

Cerberus Capital Management paid $350 million in 2006 for struggling Albertsons stores as a real estate play. In the years since, the private equity firm has added to its stake, bulked up through acquisitions and (repeatedly) tried to part with the U.S.

Management 102

Management 102

oXYGen Financial

APRIL 30, 2023

Named after the Senator of Delaware William Roth, the Roth IRA was created in 1998 and its employer plan counterpart the Roth 401k was created in 2006. How a Roth accounts works: ]]

Retirement 105

Retirement Accounting Taxes Planning 105

Alpha Architect

JULY 21, 2022

Using multiple short sale measures, we examine the predictive power of short sales for future stock returns in 38 countries from July 2006 to December 2014. We find that the days-to-cover ratio and the utilization ratio measures have the most robust predictive power for future stock returns in the global capital market.

Sales 115

Sales Marketing Marketing 115

The Big Picture

APRIL 1, 2023

He launched the Churchill Financial Group in 2006, which was purchased by PE giant The Carlyle Group in 2011. The firm gets spun out in 2015, partnering with Nuveen, part of the trillion-dollar asset manager TIAA.

Assets 173

Assets Management Valuation Investing 173

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 17, 2023

Way back in 2006 I disagreed with some analysts on the outlook for the Inland Empire in California. I wrote : As the housing bubble unwinds, housing related employment will fall; and fall dramatically in areas like the Inland Empire. The more an area is dependent on housing, the larger the negative impact on the local economy will be.

Economy 135

Economy Numbers 135

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 31, 2022

In the Case-Shiller release yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 66% above the bubble peak in 2006. above the bubble peak in early 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 16% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).

98

98

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 30, 2022

In the Case-Shiller release Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 65% above the bubble peak in 2006. above the bubble peak in early 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 15% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).

98

98

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 1, 2024

In the May Case-Shiller house price index released on Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 73% above the bubble peak in 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.9% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been 18 years since the bubble peak.

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118

The Big Picture

AUGUST 8, 2023

Here are a few Uncertainty Index charts showing 5 years around some big moves — the dotcom implosion, GFC, and Covid-19 — where prescience would have been helpful: 1997-2002 Macroeconomic Uncertainty Index 2006-2011 Macroeconomic Uncertainty Index 2017-2022 Macroeconomic Uncertainty Index It is a heavy lift to generate something that would (..)

Distribution 246

Distribution Economics Communication Media 246

The Big Picture

MAY 13, 2023

Recognizing the potential of YouTube in 2006, he decides to create a tongue-in-cheek parody of Financial TV. Despite what he describes as a lucky investment, he avoided investing in the internet throughout the 1990s. By 1999, he got itchy, eventually putting cash in Cars.com.

Medical 173

Medical Management Investing Investments 173

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

In Q2 2022, mortgage debt increased $263 billion, the most since 2006. Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Still Strong in Q2 Excerpt: Here is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1

Sales 111

Sales Accounting 111

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 2, 2023

Previously : Ritholtz: Why I Write (May 4, 2015) Strong Opinions, Weakly Held (July 24, 2006) Nobody Knows Nuthin’ (May 5, 2016) What Models Don’t Know (May 6, 2020) Nobody Knows Anything The post 10 Quotes That Shaped My Investment Philosophy appeared first on The Big Picture. These created that Aha!

Investing 345

Investing Investments Economy Portfolio 345

Calculated Risk

JULY 27, 2022

In the Case-Shiller release yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 65% above the bubble peak in 2006. above the bubble peak in early 2006.In However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 16% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).

98

98

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 27, 2022

In the Case-Shiller release Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 64% above the bubble peak in 2006. below the recent peak in early 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.3% Below Peak Excerpt: It has been over 16 years since the bubble peak.

95

95

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 4, 2024

In the September Case-Shiller house price index released last week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 75% above the bubble peak in 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.4% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the bubble peak.

Numbers 104

Numbers 104

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 30, 2023

In the June Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 65% above the bubble peak in 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.6%

116

116