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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023.

Economy 119
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Collapse in Prospective Home Buyer Traffic

The Big Picture

Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. Rising Fed Funds Rates make capital and credit more expensive; the calculus around both debt and equity shifts.

Budgeting 363
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Question #1 for 2023: How much will the economy grow in 2023? Will there be a recession in 2023?

Calculated Risk

1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Defaulting on the debt with an already weak economy will likely push the economy into recession. Or will the economy lose jobs? Q4 over Q4 or -3.4%

Economy 111
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Question #1 for 2024: How much will the economy grow in 2024? Will there be a recession in 2024?

Calculated Risk

How much will the economy grow in 2024? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2023, even though some key indicators suggested a possible recession, the FOMC was forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts were forecasting an economic recession. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 80
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Update: The Inland Empire

Calculated Risk

Way back in 2006 I disagreed with some analysts on the outlook for the Inland Empire in California. The more an area is dependent on housing, the larger the negative impact on the local economy will be. And sure enough, the economies of housing dependent areas like the Inland Empire were devastated during the housing bust.

Economy 135
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U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Increase 17 Percent in 2023; 42% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

Calculated Risk

Bankruptcies fell especially sharply after the pandemic began in early 2020, despite some COVID-related disruptions to the economy. The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 132
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Market Drama

Zoe Financial

economy, comments from Federal Reserve Chairman suggest they may not lower interest rates as quickly as previously anticipated. Overall, consumer balance sheets are in strong shape , especially when compared to the Great Recession (2006-2007). Discretionary income is currently around 11% , lower than the 13% seen in 2006-2007.