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Lessons of “Number Go Up”

The Big Picture

Recently, a post utterly perplexed me: “One doesn’t get a favorable impression of crypto from Number Go Up but in fact one doesn’t learn much about crypto at all. Thus, I was entertained by Number Go Up , but didn’t learn much.” Thus, I was entertained by Number Go Up , but didn’t learn much.” Jury is still out.

Numbers 317
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Collapse in Prospective Home Buyer Traffic

The Big Picture

The four largest drops occurred during distinct periods of economic distress: 1990 (recession), 2006-09 (GFC), 2020 (pandemic/recession), and today (FOMC 300 bp rate hike). This brings us to the chart: The one above shows the traffic of prospective buyers looking at a new home (2014- 2022); the one below goes back to the 1980s.

Budgeting 363
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National Association of Realtors Is Imploding

The Big Picture

By my crude estimates, a substantial number of U.S. November 3, 2006) Tracking NAR Spin (April 23rd, 2008) Realtors Get Real (March 2007) Pending Home Sales Index, NAR Housing Market “Bottoms” (January 2008) How Counter-Productive is Realtor Association Spin? real estate agents and brokers will drop out of NAR membership.

Numbers 298
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Black Knight: "Seriously Delinquent Mortgages Hit Lowest Level Since 2006" in June

Calculated Risk

in May but still three percentage points below the start rate in May 2019 before the onset of the pandemic • The number of loans in active foreclosure shrunk another 5K in June and is still down 47K (-17%) from March 2020; meanwhile, June’s 6.9K of serious delinquencies in June, up from 5.1% foreclosure sales (completions) marked a 1.5%

Numbers 75
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Update: The Inland Empire

Calculated Risk

Way back in 2006 I disagreed with some analysts on the outlook for the Inland Empire in California. This graph shows the unemployment rate for the Inland Empire (using MSA: Riverside, San Bernardino, Ontario), and also the number of construction jobs as a percent of total employment. Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 135
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10 Quotes That Shaped My Investment Philosophy

The Big Picture

Sturgeon’s law suggest 300,00 of them are not crap – and that number seems generous. In the United States, Between 500,000 to 1 million new books are published annually via traditional publishers and another 2 million plus get self-published. Now run the same exercise for Mutual funds, ETFs, Private Equity, Hedge Funds, Venture Capital, etc.

Investing 345
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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.4% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 8.1% below 2022 peak

Calculated Risk

In the September Case-Shiller house price index released last week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 75% above the bubble peak in 2006. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory )

Numbers 104