Calculated Risk

MAY 3, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in April to 4.47 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in April to 4.47 YoY in April.

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

Calculated Risk

JUNE 7, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.42 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.42 YoY in May. million from 4.47

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.31 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.31 YoY in March.

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2024 and a few predictions: • Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2023. million to 1.5

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.57 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.57

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

The S&P 500 topped out in early October 2007 and bottomed in March 2009. On a price-only basis, the index didn’t reach those 2007 highs again until March 2013: ( Wealth of Common Sense ). • Economic Innovation Group ). • Let’s look at the 2008 scenario as an example. Is Private Credit a Bubble, or Just a Little Frothy?

Communication 298

Communication Startup Management Economics 298

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.62 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.62

Numbers 306

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 306

Calculated Risk

APRIL 29, 2024

Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and was down about 1% year-over-year in Q1. Investment in offices (blue) increased slightly in Q1 and was up 4.1% year-over-year. And declined slightly as a percent of GDP. And the office vacancy rate is at a record high, and this will hold down office investment.

Commission 278

Commission Manufacturing Investments Investing 278

The Big Picture

JANUARY 23, 2023

Unemployment is low, job openings are still high, and what looks salaries are still rising. ~~~ I have a very vivid recollection of massive firings during the 2007-09 financial crisis. Last, the Labor market remains very robust. As the chart above shows, Unemployment spiked to 10%, layoffs were ubiquitous. At least, not yet.

Numbers 325

Numbers Economics Planning Investing 325

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust), and in March 2020 (pandemic).

Economy 278

Economy Sales Economics Investing 278

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 29, 2024

Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and was up about 8% year-over-year in Q4. Investment in offices (blue) increased slightly in Q4 and was up 5.0% year-over-year. And mostly unchanged as a percent of GDP. The vacancy rate for malls is still very high, so investment will probably stay low for some time.

Commission 289

Commission Manufacturing Investments Investing 289

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. My economic future was uncertain, but I felt confident I could make a go of it. From a purely economic perspective, these first few crashes were meaningless. I had zero dollars in the market and was deep in student loan debt.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 6, 2023

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.07 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.07 in September.

Numbers 312

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 312

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When the Economic Policy Institute analyzed this, they discovered: “Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the NFC [non-financial corps] sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019.

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in August to 4.83 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in August to 4.83

Numbers 277

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 277

Calculated Risk

JULY 9, 2024

Fast-forward to 2024, and this cycle he hasn’t been as concerned as he was in 2007. To better understand Bill McBride's perspective on the current housing and economic cycle, ResiClub reached out and conducted a Q&A with him.

Marketing 173

Marketing Marketing Economics Sales 173

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in October to 4.28 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in October to 4.28 million from 4.07

Retail 333

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 333

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 8, 2023

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 295,000 to 4.0 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in November to 3.99 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in November to 3.99

Retail 317

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 317

Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2023

Note that the big dips in sales are related to economic recessions (early '80s, early '90s, the Great Recession of 2007 through mid-2009 and the pandemic in 2020). Back in 1976, most light vehicles were passenger cars - however passenger car sales have trended down over time.

Sales 204

Sales Economics 204

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

Note that the big dips in sales are related to economic recessions (early '80s, early '90s, the Great Recession of 2007 through mid-2009 and the pandemic in 2020). Back in 1976, most light vehicles were passenger cars - however passenger car sales have trended down over time.

Sales 200

Sales Economics 200

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 4.21 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 4.21 YoY in December.

Retail 302

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 302

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and was up about 16% year-over-year in Q3 - from a very low level. Investment in offices (blue) increased slightly in Q3 and was down 1.3% year-over-year. And still declining as a percent of GDP.

Commission 228

Commission Manufacturing Investments Investing 228

A Wealth of Common Sense

OCTOBER 15, 2024

It was the worst economic period most of us have ever lived through. The collective net worth of American households reached roughly $66 trillion by the end of 2007. Housing prices were down by nearly 30%. The stock market crashed almost 60%. The unemployment rate hit double-digits. The 2008 crash wiped out $11 trillion in wealth,

Economics 143

Economics Marketing Marketing 143

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% The "Art of the Soft Landing" requires that the Fed reduce rates quick enough to keep economic growth positive, and slow enough not to reignite inflation. this gives 2.4%

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investing 200

Calculated Risk

JULY 5, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in June to 4.22 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in June to 4.22 YoY in June.

Numbers 211

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 211

The Big Picture

JUNE 20, 2024

She observes it is less about the things investors tend to focus on — “technical analysis, geopolitics, behavioral finance and even skirt hemline trends” — and more about specific measures she tracks in sentiment, valuation, macro-economic areas. The table above shows the major market peaks going back to 1990.

Marketing 195

Marketing Marketing Valuation Media 195

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II. The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust / financial crisis), and in March 2020 (pandemic). The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust / financial crisis), and in March 2020 (pandemic). Since the unemployment rate was at 3.4%

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

This is supported generally by economic strength in the labor market, strong consumer spending, and record high corporate profits. upturn near the tail end of the 2007-09 cycle. The counterargument is the spike in inflation has changed the dynamic of the economy.

Economy 328

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 328

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

What does this rock traversing through the vast emptiness of space have to do with economic expansion, corporate revenues & profits, inflation, or interest rates? The rally from those lows were close to a market double by the time we saw the next peak in October 2007. It takes the Earth 365 days, 6 hours, 9 minutes, and 9.76

Economy 328

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

The Big Picture

MAY 16, 2023

Major coastal metros have been hubs of the kind of educated workers coveted most by high-powered employers and economic development officials. He founded Wall Strip (sold to CBS in 2007), co-founded StockTwits (which pioneered the ‘cashtag’ e.g., $AAPL), and was the first investor in Robin Hood. Now College Graduates Are Leaving, Too.

Economy 263

Economy Economics Education Government 263

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis 7. One of my favorite responsibilities as chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management is the quarterly conference call I do for our clients.

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 2, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " In January, the number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in January to 4.42 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in January to 4.42

Numbers 219

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 219

Calculated Risk

MARCH 8, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in February to 4.36 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in February to 4.36 YoY in February.

Numbers 173

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 173

Advisor Perspectives

MAY 22, 2023

A member of Putnam's Fixed Income team since 2007, Onsel Gulbiten analyzes macroeconomic issues, including inflation, interest rates, and policy developments.

Economics 75

Economics 75

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 25, 2022

In the wonderful world of economic modeling, despite falling prices, CPI has remained persistently higher, and we must consider the role of the Federal Reserve as part of the reason why. Bloomberg: CPI Inflation Data is a “Lie” (September 26, 2007). Previously : Why Is the Fed Always Late to the Party? October 7, 2022).

Government 290

Government Assets Retail Manufacturing 290

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

in November – but as I have been warning since 2007, we measure this incorrectly using a poor model of housing prices called “Owners Equivalent Rent.” Misreading Housing : I keep pointing out we are measuring the Housing component of the PCE services inflation rate incorrectly. It has fallen slowly, from 8.3%

Economy 331

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 331

Advisor Perspectives

JANUARY 4, 2024

The key economic question for 2024 is how to think about the interest rate cuts we’re likely to get from the Federal Reserve. Are they good news for the economy as borrowers catch a break, or a sign of impending recession as they were in 2001 and 2007?

Economics 52

Economics Economy 52