The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

When we look at the past century, we can see decades-long eras where the economy is generally robust, supporting markets trending higher, with expanding multiples. The alternate periods of time are Secular Bear Markets: The economy is fraught with weakness, poor consumer spending, and negative job growth.

Economy 328

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 328

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. 2 Regardless, something is amiss. Atlantic, Oct.

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

What does this rock traversing through the vast emptiness of space have to do with economic expansion, corporate revenues & profits, inflation, or interest rates? The rally from those lows were close to a market double by the time we saw the next peak in October 2007. Alas, utterly nothing. The next ~12 years saw gains of 608.5%

Economy 328

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

The Big Picture

MAY 16, 2023

Major coastal metros have been hubs of the kind of educated workers coveted most by high-powered employers and economic development officials. These urban centers have become a class of their own — “superstar cities” — with outsized impact on the American economy fueled by the clustering of workers with degrees. (

Economy 263

Economy Economics Education Government 263

Carson Wealth

MARCH 10, 2025

The worries are growing, from a potentially slowing economy, to a growing and more aggressive trade war, to worries over Washington policy. Then five years ago we shut down our economy during a once-a-century pandemic. Our basic conclusion was that while we did see an increase in economic risks, it did not change our baseline view.

Marketing 73

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 73

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

Federal Reserve : While a recession is possible in 2024, it mostly depends upon how long the FOMC keeps rates tighter (higher) than is appropriate for the economy. in November – but as I have been warning since 2007, we measure this incorrectly using a poor model of housing prices called “Owners Equivalent Rent.”

Economy 331

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 331

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 25, 2022

” There are some technical explanations, but before we get there, a quick reminder as to how we got here: The global pandemic forced governments around the world to shut their economies down; everything was closed, from schools to businesses, restaurants, entertainment venues, retail stores, and offices. October 7, 2022).

Government 290

Government Assets Retail Manufacturing 290

The Big Picture

MAY 12, 2023

The post-pandemic economy differs significantly from the 2010s. ( New research shows how narrow the field of American economics has become.( Brexit has blown a sizeable hole in Britain’s economic model, accounting gor a 5.5% The Big Picture ) • Who’s Not Sweating the Debt Ceiling? That’s Not Great!

Economics 147

Economics Banking Accounting Economy 147

Zoe Financial

NOVEMBER 18, 2024

Economic Updates: October Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 2.6%. economy, comments from Federal Reserve Chairman suggest they may not lower interest rates as quickly as previously anticipated. Overall, consumer balance sheets are in strong shape , especially when compared to the Great Recession (2006-2007). Up 23% YTD.

Marketing 40

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 40

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 26, 2022

There is a rosy projection for the US economy. Meltdown of 2007-09 fostered less risky tactics; not as much debt. Economic Outlook: Rubber Bands on a Watermelon : With enough pressure, the watermelon *will* explode. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC. Bloomberg ). Americans may not have felt it : 2.9% Bloomberg ).

Banking 130

Banking Economy Economics Retail 130

Advisor Perspectives

JANUARY 4, 2024

The key economic question for 2024 is how to think about the interest rate cuts we’re likely to get from the Federal Reserve. Are they good news for the economy as borrowers catch a break, or a sign of impending recession as they were in 2001 and 2007?

Economics 52

Economics Economy 52

The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

economy is doing well, why do so many Americans say it’s terrible? The leading economic indicators show the U.S. economy is performing well, but most Americans still believe economic conditions are extremely poor — as if the country was mired in a deep recession. 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis 7.

Insurance 130

Insurance Math Economics Economy 130

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 23, 2024

If they are cutting due to a panic (think March 2020) or due to a recession (like in 2001 or 2007) potential trouble could indeed be lurking. Yes, 2001 and 2007 are in there, as you’ve probably heard many times the past week if you’ve watched financial media at all. All this is very positive for the economy. on average.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 96

Nationwide Financial

OCTOBER 12, 2022

The previous bear market occurred in 2007-09, during the Global Financial Crisis. Of course, earnings and profits are dependent to a large extent on economic performance (although not for all companies and not all in the same manner.). People also still need electricity, gas, and phone service in an economic downturn.

Investing 105

Investing Investments Risk Tolerance Marketing 105

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 25, 2023

The Fed made a big shift in its projections and is now much more bullish on the economy. Expectations for a stronger economy also mean the Fed is projecting fewer rate cuts next year. Two: Fed members are buying that the economy is strong. That is a huge shift and an acknowledgement that the economy is strong.

Marketing 95

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 95

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 13, 2022

Even if the economy created zero jobs over the next year, 2022 would be the 9 th best year for job creation since 1940. The highest it got to during the 2003–2007 expansion was 80.3%. When times are good and the economy is expanding, firms hire temps to ramp up quickly. Initial unemployment benefit claims are near record lows.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Insurance Economy 98

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

And so, coming out of school, I studied Economics and Spanish Literature, and I applied to a — a program that actually targeted Liberal Arts majors. At Citi, in 2007, fantastic timing, you take over as Head of Structured Solutions. And so, 2007, I came over to Citi. It was at Bank One, at the time. RITHOLTZ: Right.

Clients 299

Clients Wealth Management Banking Investing 299

James Hendries

AUGUST 23, 2022

At this rate, home sales will likely continue to slow and residential investment could turn out to be a drag on Q3 economic growth. Given the lag between Federal Reserve (Fed) policy and the real economy, we have not likely seen the bottom in the housing market. Regional differences are profound. Conclusion.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Sales Economy 98

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 23, 2023

Yields rose after traders speculated that strong economic data might persuade the Fed to raise rates. for the first time since 2007, while mortgage rates hit 8%–the highest level since mid-2000. Economic Strength, Housing Weakness The economy continued to evidence surprising strength according to data released last week.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 105

Nationwide Financial

MAY 16, 2023

Kathy Bostjancic: Given the severity of the last two recessions (the Great Recession in 2007-08 and the COVID recession in 2020), it’s likely not surprising that many investors think the next downturn could be just as severe. KB: Inflation remains a key factor in our broader economic outlook. However, most recessions in the U.S.

Economics 52

Economics Retirement Clients Retirement Planning 52

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

ECONOMY The economy saw blockbuster productivity growth in the third quarter. ECONOMY: PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH COULD BE A GAME CHANGER Lost in all the consternation over a weak payroll report this month was robust productivity data, which was released earlier. But this was not because the productive capacity of the economy expanded.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Startup 96

Carson Wealth

MARCH 11, 2024

The bottom line is the economy is strong because the labor market is strong. The S&P 500 fell an eventual 57% from its October 2007 peak before bottoming on March 9, 2009, and finally ending the global financial crisis (GFC) bear market. The global economy was in shambles, and people were losing their jobs all around.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Retirement 96

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 19, 2023

Since 1995, there are four rather distinct periods during which forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500 Index declined, tied to a specific event and/or economic downturn. Further, stock markets tend historically to move in advance of changes in economic activity or earnings trajectory, not in response to those changes. company.

Clients 98

Clients Economy Economics Marketing 98

The Irrelevant Investor

NOVEMBER 15, 2020

Matthew Klein wrote about the end of Moore's law and the effect it's having on the economy in Barron's this weekend. economy grew about 4.3% According to a new study from economists at the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than 1.4 economy during that period came from the tech sector.

Manufacturing 52

Manufacturing Economy Economics Investments 52

James Hendries

JUNE 20, 2023

As the economy is likely downshifting, investors should take heed that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) current stance is eerily similar to early 2007. During that time, the Fed held a tightening bias since they believed the housing market was stabilizing, the economy would continue to expand, and inflation risks remained.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Communication 52

Trade Brains

SEPTEMBER 21, 2024

They’re about shaping India’s economic future. Canara Robeco Mutual Fund, a joint venture between Canara Bank and the Robeco Group since 2007, has shown impressive growth with assets under management worth ₹839.3 This IPO could open doors for more people to invest in India’s grassroots economic growth.

Banking 111

Banking Financial Services Insurance Assets 111

Truemind Capital

JANUARY 19, 2024

India is strongly intertwined with Global markets financially and economically. Thus what happens in the USA and other developed economies has a significant impact on the Indian economy as well. Whereas in reality, our investment returns are majorly affected by what happens globally.

Economy 52

Economy Investing Investments Economics 52

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 22, 2024

For a broad view of our expectations for the economy, stocks, and bonds in 2024, download our 2024 Market Outlook. That bear eventually ended in October 2022, and since then stocks have defied many experts, who continually (and incorrectly) touted a weakening economy, tapped-out consumer, and many other reasons to doubt the new bull market.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Portfolio 97

Ballast Advisors

JULY 19, 2023

As we reach the end of the second quarter of 2023, we want to provide you with an update on the markets and key developments that have occurred in the economy. Overall Economic Overview: The second quarter of 2023 has witnessed a mixed economic landscape characterized by a series of challenges and opportunities.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economics Economy 52

Carson Wealth

JUNE 12, 2023

Carson’s leading economic index indicates the economy is not in a recession. The bottom line is many bears have been proven wrong, as the economy continued to surprise to the upside, inflation came back to earth, and overall earnings estimates increased. At Carson, we aren’t crazy about this definition of a bull market.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Manufacturing 52

Investing Caffeine

MAY 2, 2022

Although I have noted some of the key headwinds the economy faces above, it is worth noting that current corporate profits remain at/near all-time record highs (see chart below) and the 3.6% As Albert Einstein stated, “In the middle of every difficulty lies an opportunity.”.

Electronics 59

Electronics Economy CFP Investing 59

MarketWatch

MARCH 14, 2023

With investors continuing to assess the risks of further fallout from the banks’ collapse — a consequence of the Federal Reserve’s yearlong rate-hike campaign —analysts like Vicky Redwood, a senior economic adviser for Capital Economics, point to some possibility that the start of the next financial crisis could already be under way.At

Government 76

Government Banking Assets Management 76

Validea

FEBRUARY 17, 2023

Wall Streeters give a lot of credence to economic forecasts at the start of every year, as corporations project demand and craft their budgets and money managers plan out their strategies for the next year. While the pandemic obviously caused a massive impact, the following year was just as wrong, when economists were off by 1.9

Portfolio Management 59

Portfolio Management Budgeting Economics Portfolio 59

Zoe Financial

OCTOBER 9, 2023

to 4.79, which is a yield level we had not seen since 2007. Economic data we can point to this: September employment data came out and payroll gains came in at 336,000. Economic Snapsot: Average hourly earnings came in at 4.15 Long-term bonds try to give a proxy for inflation + real economic growth (nominal GDP growth).

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Financial Advisor Economics 52

Validea

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

Even if the economy avoids a recession, the Fed is unlikely to pivot back to cutting rates, which could hurt stocks. equities are now the priciest they’ve been since 2007, entering a level the strategists called a “death zone.” The Morgan Stanley team isn’t the only one sounding the alarm; JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Banking 52

Banking Economy Economics Portfolio 52

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

I was having lunch with Jeremy in the summer of 2007, just after the Bear Stearns hedge fund started blowing up. I think the Americans going to be grateful that they didn’t do that much building in the last few years because otherwise, we would really have a replay of 2007 and ’08. Now, first year mortgage rates have doubled.

Banking 147

Banking Valuation Economy Investing 147

Carson Wealth

MAY 22, 2023

As we explain more below, the economy is presenting many positive signs that suggest a recession is unlikely, and stocks likely are sniffing this out. Economic data continues to come in strong, including for retail sales and vehicle production. Housing may no longer be a drag on economic growth the rest of this year.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52