The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

Federal Reserve : While a recession is possible in 2024, it mostly depends upon how long the FOMC keeps rates tighter (higher) than is appropriate for the economy. in November – but as I have been warning since 2007, we measure this incorrectly using a poor model of housing prices called “Owners Equivalent Rent.”

Economy 331

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 331

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? The FOMC is expecting growth of just 0.4%

Economy 111

Economy Sales Economics Investing 111

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% How much will the economy grow in 2024? An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.

Economy 80

Economy Sales Economics Investing 80

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 25, 2022

” There are some technical explanations, but before we get there, a quick reminder as to how we got here: The global pandemic forced governments around the world to shut their economies down; everything was closed, from schools to businesses, restaurants, entertainment venues, retail stores, and offices. October 7, 2022).

Government 290

Government Assets Retail Manufacturing 290

The Big Picture

MAY 12, 2023

The post-pandemic economy differs significantly from the 2010s. ( New research shows how narrow the field of American economics has become.( Brexit has blown a sizeable hole in Britain’s economic model, accounting gor a 5.5% The Big Picture ) • Who’s Not Sweating the Debt Ceiling? That’s Not Great!

Economics 147

Economics Economy Banking Accounting 147

Advisor Perspectives

JANUARY 4, 2024

The key economic question for 2024 is how to think about the interest rate cuts we’re likely to get from the Federal Reserve. Are they good news for the economy as borrowers catch a break, or a sign of impending recession as they were in 2001 and 2007?

Economics 52

Economics Economy 52

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 26, 2022

There is a rosy projection for the US economy. Meltdown of 2007-09 fostered less risky tactics; not as much debt. Economic Outlook: Rubber Bands on a Watermelon : With enough pressure, the watermelon *will* explode. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC. Bloomberg ). Americans may not have felt it : 2.9% Bloomberg ).

Banking 130

Banking Economy Economics Retail 130

The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

economy is doing well, why do so many Americans say it’s terrible? The leading economic indicators show the U.S. economy is performing well, but most Americans still believe economic conditions are extremely poor — as if the country was mired in a deep recession. 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis 7.

Insurance 130

Insurance Math Economics Economy 130

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 23, 2024

If they are cutting due to a panic (think March 2020) or due to a recession (like in 2001 or 2007) potential trouble could indeed be lurking. Yes, 2001 and 2007 are in there, as you’ve probably heard many times the past week if you’ve watched financial media at all. All this is very positive for the economy. on average.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 96

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II.

Sales 145

Sales Economy Banking Economics 145

Nationwide Financial

OCTOBER 12, 2022

The previous bear market occurred in 2007-09, during the Global Financial Crisis. Of course, earnings and profits are dependent to a large extent on economic performance (although not for all companies and not all in the same manner.). People also still need electricity, gas, and phone service in an economic downturn.

Investing 105

Investing Investments Risk Tolerance Marketing 105

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 25, 2023

The Fed made a big shift in its projections and is now much more bullish on the economy. Expectations for a stronger economy also mean the Fed is projecting fewer rate cuts next year. Two: Fed members are buying that the economy is strong. That is a huge shift and an acknowledgement that the economy is strong.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 96

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 13, 2022

Even if the economy created zero jobs over the next year, 2022 would be the 9 th best year for job creation since 1940. The highest it got to during the 2003–2007 expansion was 80.3%. When times are good and the economy is expanding, firms hire temps to ramp up quickly. Initial unemployment benefit claims are near record lows.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Insurance Economy 98

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

And so, coming out of school, I studied Economics and Spanish Literature, and I applied to a — a program that actually targeted Liberal Arts majors. At Citi, in 2007, fantastic timing, you take over as Head of Structured Solutions. And so, 2007, I came over to Citi. It was at Bank One, at the time. RITHOLTZ: Right.

Clients 299

Clients Wealth Management Banking Investing 299

James Hendries

AUGUST 23, 2022

At this rate, home sales will likely continue to slow and residential investment could turn out to be a drag on Q3 economic growth. Given the lag between Federal Reserve (Fed) policy and the real economy, we have not likely seen the bottom in the housing market. Regional differences are profound. Conclusion.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Sales Economy 98

Carson Wealth

MARCH 11, 2024

The bottom line is the economy is strong because the labor market is strong. The S&P 500 fell an eventual 57% from its October 2007 peak before bottoming on March 9, 2009, and finally ending the global financial crisis (GFC) bear market. The global economy was in shambles, and people were losing their jobs all around.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Retirement 97

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 23, 2023

Yields rose after traders speculated that strong economic data might persuade the Fed to raise rates. for the first time since 2007, while mortgage rates hit 8%–the highest level since mid-2000. Economic Strength, Housing Weakness The economy continued to evidence surprising strength according to data released last week.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 105

Nationwide Financial

MAY 16, 2023

Kathy Bostjancic: Given the severity of the last two recessions (the Great Recession in 2007-08 and the COVID recession in 2020), it’s likely not surprising that many investors think the next downturn could be just as severe. KB: Inflation remains a key factor in our broader economic outlook. However, most recessions in the U.S.

Economics 52

Economics Retirement Clients Retirement Planning 52

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

ECONOMY The economy saw blockbuster productivity growth in the third quarter. ECONOMY: PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH COULD BE A GAME CHANGER Lost in all the consternation over a weak payroll report this month was robust productivity data, which was released earlier. But this was not because the productive capacity of the economy expanded.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Startup 96

Truemind Capital

JANUARY 19, 2024

India is strongly intertwined with Global markets financially and economically. Thus what happens in the USA and other developed economies has a significant impact on the Indian economy as well. Whereas in reality, our investment returns are majorly affected by what happens globally.

Economy 52

Economy Investments Investing Economics 52

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 22, 2024

For a broad view of our expectations for the economy, stocks, and bonds in 2024, download our 2024 Market Outlook. That bear eventually ended in October 2022, and since then stocks have defied many experts, who continually (and incorrectly) touted a weakening economy, tapped-out consumer, and many other reasons to doubt the new bull market.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Portfolio 97

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 19, 2023

Since 1995, there are four rather distinct periods during which forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500 Index declined, tied to a specific event and/or economic downturn. Further, stock markets tend historically to move in advance of changes in economic activity or earnings trajectory, not in response to those changes. company.

Clients 98

Clients Economy Economics Investing 98

The Irrelevant Investor

NOVEMBER 15, 2020

Matthew Klein wrote about the end of Moore's law and the effect it's having on the economy in Barron's this weekend. economy grew about 4.3% According to a new study from economists at the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than 1.4 economy during that period came from the tech sector.

Manufacturing 52

Manufacturing Economy Economics Investments 52

James Hendries

JUNE 20, 2023

As the economy is likely downshifting, investors should take heed that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) current stance is eerily similar to early 2007. During that time, the Fed held a tightening bias since they believed the housing market was stabilizing, the economy would continue to expand, and inflation risks remained.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Communication 52

Trade Brains

SEPTEMBER 21, 2024

They’re about shaping India’s economic future. Canara Robeco Mutual Fund, a joint venture between Canara Bank and the Robeco Group since 2007, has shown impressive growth with assets under management worth ₹839.3 This IPO could open doors for more people to invest in India’s grassroots economic growth.

Banking 111

Banking Financial Services Insurance Assets 111

Ballast Advisors

JULY 19, 2023

As we reach the end of the second quarter of 2023, we want to provide you with an update on the markets and key developments that have occurred in the economy. Overall Economic Overview: The second quarter of 2023 has witnessed a mixed economic landscape characterized by a series of challenges and opportunities.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economics Economy 52

Carson Wealth

JUNE 12, 2023

Carson’s leading economic index indicates the economy is not in a recession. The bottom line is many bears have been proven wrong, as the economy continued to surprise to the upside, inflation came back to earth, and overall earnings estimates increased. At Carson, we aren’t crazy about this definition of a bull market.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Manufacturing 52

Investing Caffeine

MAY 2, 2022

Although I have noted some of the key headwinds the economy faces above, it is worth noting that current corporate profits remain at/near all-time record highs (see chart below) and the 3.6% As Albert Einstein stated, “In the middle of every difficulty lies an opportunity.”.

Electronics 59

Electronics Economy CFP Government 59

MarketWatch

MARCH 14, 2023

With investors continuing to assess the risks of further fallout from the banks’ collapse — a consequence of the Federal Reserve’s yearlong rate-hike campaign —analysts like Vicky Redwood, a senior economic adviser for Capital Economics, point to some possibility that the start of the next financial crisis could already be under way.At

Government 76

Government Banking Assets Management 76

Zoe Financial

NOVEMBER 18, 2024

Economic Updates: October Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 2.6%. economy, comments from Federal Reserve Chairman suggest they may not lower interest rates as quickly as previously anticipated. Overall, consumer balance sheets are in strong shape , especially when compared to the Great Recession (2006-2007). Up 23% YTD.

Marketing 40

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 40

Validea

FEBRUARY 17, 2023

Wall Streeters give a lot of credence to economic forecasts at the start of every year, as corporations project demand and craft their budgets and money managers plan out their strategies for the next year. While the pandemic obviously caused a massive impact, the following year was just as wrong, when economists were off by 1.9

Portfolio Management 59

Portfolio Management Budgeting Economics Portfolio 59

Zoe Financial

OCTOBER 9, 2023

to 4.79, which is a yield level we had not seen since 2007. Economic data we can point to this: September employment data came out and payroll gains came in at 336,000. Economic Snapsot: Average hourly earnings came in at 4.15 Long-term bonds try to give a proxy for inflation + real economic growth (nominal GDP growth).

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Financial Advisor Economics 52

Validea

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

Even if the economy avoids a recession, the Fed is unlikely to pivot back to cutting rates, which could hurt stocks. equities are now the priciest they’ve been since 2007, entering a level the strategists called a “death zone.” The Morgan Stanley team isn’t the only one sounding the alarm; JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Economy 52

Economy Banking Economics Portfolio 52

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

I was having lunch with Jeremy in the summer of 2007, just after the Bear Stearns hedge fund started blowing up. I think the Americans going to be grateful that they didn’t do that much building in the last few years because otherwise, we would really have a replay of 2007 and ’08. Now, first year mortgage rates have doubled.

Banking 147

Banking Valuation Economy Investing 147

Carson Wealth

MAY 22, 2023

As we explain more below, the economy is presenting many positive signs that suggest a recession is unlikely, and stocks likely are sniffing this out. Economic data continues to come in strong, including for retail sales and vehicle production. Housing may no longer be a drag on economic growth the rest of this year.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 9, 2024

or more percentage points above the lowest point of that average over the last 12 months, the economy is likely in the early months of a recession. The good news is that the preponderance of economic data clearly tells us we’re not in a recession right now. from 2005-2007. It’s correctly indicated every recession since 1970.

Marketing 72

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 72

Carson Wealth

MARCH 27, 2023

There are certainly more questions than answers right now, and yes, the odds of a recession have increased as banks will tighten lending, which could lead to an economic slowdown. Still, economic data is improving. Recent sentiment polls show a high number of bears while worries about the economy and earnings continue to expand.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Banking Economics 52