Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures increased at a 3.7% Investment in petroleum and natural gas structures increased in Q3 compared to Q2 and was up 22% year-over-year. The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP. annual pace in Q3. year-over-year.

Commission 228

Commission Manufacturing Investments Investing 228

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II. The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust / financial crisis), and in March 2020 (pandemic). The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust / financial crisis), and in March 2020 (pandemic). Residential investment has also peaked.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% The "Art of the Soft Landing" requires that the Fed reduce rates quick enough to keep economic growth positive, and slow enough not to reignite inflation.

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investing 200

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

Let’s jump into the new year with some fresh observations, some of which are quite surprising: • Astronomical Measures of Time Are Unrelated to Investing : 2023 – a new year! The rally from those lows were close to a market double by the time we saw the next peak in October 2007. Welcome to 2023! billion times.

Economy 328

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

The Big Picture

MAY 16, 2023

Major coastal metros have been hubs of the kind of educated workers coveted most by high-powered employers and economic development officials. He is the founder and CIO of Social Leverage , where he makes early-stage investments. Now College Graduates Are Leaving, Too. A politics of resentment in America has fed on it, too.

Economy 263

Economy Economics Education Government 263

The Big Picture

JUNE 20, 2024

She observes it is less about the things investors tend to focus on — “technical analysis, geopolitics, behavioral finance and even skirt hemline trends” — and more about specific measures she tracks in sentiment, valuation, macro-economic areas. The table above shows the major market peaks going back to 1990.

Marketing 195

Marketing Marketing Valuation Media 195

Nationwide Financial

OCTOBER 12, 2022

The previous bear market occurred in 2007-09, during the Global Financial Crisis. Of course, earnings and profits are dependent to a large extent on economic performance (although not for all companies and not all in the same manner.). What investments do well in bear markets? The average bear market lasts 9.6

Investing 105

Investing Investments Risk Tolerance Marketing 105

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

How should investors view the relationship between trade policy and inflation in the current economic environment? Gwinn Professor of Economics Masters in Business (coming soon) ~~~ Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here , and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts , YouTube , Spotify , and Bloomberg. What was it about?

Economy 162

Economy Economics Food Banking 162

The Big Picture

MAY 12, 2023

New research shows how narrow the field of American economics has become.( Brexit has blown a sizeable hole in Britain’s economic model, accounting gor a 5.5% He is the founder and CIO of Social Leverage , where he makes early-stage investments. That’s Not Great! Slate ) • Are the costs of Brexit big or small?

Economics 147

Economics Banking Accounting Economy 147

Zoe Financial

NOVEMBER 18, 2024

Economic Updates: October Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 2.6%. Overall, consumer balance sheets are in strong shape , especially when compared to the Great Recession (2006-2007). Discretionary income is currently around 11% , lower than the 13% seen in 2006-2007. minutes Welcome to this week’s Market Drama!

Marketing 40

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 40

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 26, 2022

Stanley Druckenmiller recently relayed this message to an audience, saying: “Do not invest in the present. Meltdown of 2007-09 fostered less risky tactics; not as much debt. Economic Outlook: Rubber Bands on a Watermelon : With enough pressure, the watermelon *will* explode. Builders Say They’re Ready for This Housing Slowdown.

Banking 130

Banking Economy Economics Retail 130

Wealthfront

SEPTEMBER 18, 2023

This year, interest rates reached their highest level since 2007 and are expected to stay relatively high through 2024. This higher-rate economic environment brings excitement but also confusion. You may be asking, “with all of the compelling ways to earn more on my savings, are equities worth the risk?”

Investing 59

Investing Investments Economics 59

Darrow Wealth Management

MAY 22, 2023

Should you hold cash or invest in the market? Attractive yields on savings and cash-like investments can make it tempting to hold cash instead of investing extra money. Hold cash or invest? The federal funds rate hasn’t been this high since 2007 when it peaked at 5.25%. But it won’t last forever.

Investing 102

Investing Investments Accounting Wealth Management 102

Fortune Financial

OCTOBER 14, 2024

Here below are a few simple diversification strategies that I think enhance a portfolio’s resilience through market and economic turbulence: I. Beware Factor Concentration You don’t have to be a stock picker to find yourself overweighted a given factor; the current stock market structure in the U.S.

Asset Allocation 131

Asset Allocation Government Portfolio Financial Advisor 131

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

She is Head of North America Investments for Citi Global Wealth, which is a giant wealth management arm of the giant Citibank. It’s a town of about 4,000 people, so exposure to markets or investment banking or any of the careers in finance was not something that you really envisioned. Her name is Kristen Bitterly Michell.

Clients 299

Clients Wealth Management Banking Investing 299

The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

The leading economic indicators show the U.S. economy is performing well, but most Americans still believe economic conditions are extremely poor — as if the country was mired in a deep recession. 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis 7. The approach that works the best is also the one most people ignore. 1987 Crash 3.

Insurance 130

Insurance Math Economics Economy 130

Validea

DECEMBER 15, 2022

Over and over, Baron writes that he’s seen those companies weather any market storm, coming out better positioned once conditions normalized again, such as through the 1973-74 bear market, the crash of 1987, the 2000-01 dot-com bust, and the financial crisis of 2007-08. “[I]nvest Those earnings can grow at a faster and faster pace over time.

Investments 59

Investments Investing Portfolio Economics 59

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 23, 2023

Yields rose after traders speculated that strong economic data might persuade the Fed to raise rates. for the first time since 2007, while mortgage rates hit 8%–the highest level since mid-2000. Economic Strength, Housing Weakness The economy continued to evidence surprising strength according to data released last week.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 105

Nationwide Financial

JUNE 5, 2023

Just three years ago, business owners were reeling from the swift and significant economic impact of the pandemic. As a financial professional, you can be a reassuring voice – and potentially aid in helping them address the impacts of economic volatility – as we brace for turmoil ahead. have been mild to moderate.

Economics 52

Economics Risk Management Clients Planning 52

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 9, 2023

When Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2007 on Tuesday, stock prices dropped, leaving the Dow Industrials in negative territory for the year. 7 This Week: Key Economic Data Wednesday: Producer Price Index (PPI). Source: Econoday, October 6, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. Jobless Claims.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 105

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 23, 2024

If they are cutting due to a panic (think March 2020) or due to a recession (like in 2001 or 2007) potential trouble could indeed be lurking. Yes, 2001 and 2007 are in there, as you’ve probably heard many times the past week if you’ve watched financial media at all. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 96

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 21, 2024

From the fund page : the goal is seeking stable returns across a variety of economic and financial market conditions, consistent with the preservation of capital. To my knowledge, RYMFX was the first managed futures mutual fund and it had the space to itself for several years after in launched in 2007. Check out the following.

Asset Allocation 52

Asset Allocation Management Portfolio Taxes 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 23, 2022

At this rate, home sales will likely continue to slow and residential investment could turn out to be a drag on Q3 economic growth. Outside of the pandemic, the rate of sales were close to sales rates in 2007 and 2008, when the economy was in the depths of a housing crisis [Figure 3]. Regional differences are profound.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Sales Economy 98

Brown Advisory

NOVEMBER 12, 2019

Investment Perspectives | Confidence ajackson Tue, 11/12/2019 - 16:31 Despite making new highs recently, U.S. We’ve consistently reminded clients to keep enough cash and equivalents on hand so they won’t be forced to liquidate investments at inopportune times, should the markets pull back. Low interest rates.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Assets Economics 52

Brown Advisory

NOVEMBER 12, 2019

Investment Perspectives | Confidence. We’ve consistently reminded clients to keep enough cash and equivalents on hand so they won’t be forced to liquidate investments at inopportune times, should the markets pull back. could fall victim to long-term economic stagnation, similar to the fate that befell Japan starting in the 1990s.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Assets Economics 52

Brown Advisory

AUGUST 6, 2019

Investment Perspectives | Cool Change ajackson Tue, 08/06/2019 - 08:46 "Time for a cool change; I know that it's time for a cool change." Ever since Taylor joined our firm in 2010, I’ve been deeply impressed with his understanding of the markets and his intellectual curiosity with respect to all types of investments.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Clients Portfolio Management 52

Brown Advisory

AUGUST 6, 2019

Investment Perspectives | Cool Change. After more than 50 years of writing research reports and investment letters (including the last 20 with Brown Advisory), it’s time to pass the baton to a better qualified, more knowledgeable and—yes—younger colleague who can take Investment Perspectives forward. Tue, 08/06/2019 - 08:46.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Clients Portfolio Management 52

Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 6, 2022

Global Leaders Investment Letter: August 2022 mhannan Tue, 09/06/2022 - 10:48 Just want the PDF? Capital cycles appear when product shortages and subsequent high prices and rising return on invested capital (RoIC) are met by capital flowing into an industry to satiate the new demand. The key to this is analysis of the supply-side.

Investments 52

Investments Investing Insurance Ethics 52

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 19, 2023

Since 1995, there are four rather distinct periods during which forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500 Index declined, tied to a specific event and/or economic downturn. Further, stock markets tend historically to move in advance of changes in economic activity or earnings trajectory, not in response to those changes.

Clients 98

Clients Economy Economics Marketing 98

Brown Advisory

JULY 1, 2016

Investment Perspectives | Real Returns achen Fri, 07/01/2016 - 06:00 One of the most penetrating and recurring questions we receive from clients is, “what is a reasonable long-term expectation for U.S. stock market returns?” In this context, we are not referring to the outlook for stocks over the next quarter or even the next year or two.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Portfolio Assets 52

Brown Advisory

JULY 1, 2016

Investment Perspectives | Real Returns. Instead, we’re looking 10, 20 or 30 years ahead—a long enough horizon to smooth out short-term fluctuations resulting from variables such as economic cycles, changes in interest rates and geopolitical events. Fri, 07/01/2016 - 06:00. stock market returns?”

Investing 52

Investing Investments Portfolio Assets 52

James Hendries

JUNE 20, 2023

As the economy is likely downshifting, investors should take heed that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) current stance is eerily similar to early 2007. That’s not suggesting another 2008 is coming, but rather highlights how fast the economic environment can change.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Communication 52

Brown Advisory

APRIL 1, 2015

Investment Perspectives | Bubbles II. Although we expressed some worry about the long-term effects of mounting deficits, we concluded that stocks and other assets were not in bubble territory and represented good value despite what we saw as a weak economic recovery. trillion last year, roughly the same as during the 2007 peak.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Valuation Assets 52

Validea

FEBRUARY 17, 2023

Wall Streeters give a lot of credence to economic forecasts at the start of every year, as corporations project demand and craft their budgets and money managers plan out their strategies for the next year. While the pandemic obviously caused a massive impact, the following year was just as wrong, when economists were off by 1.9

Portfolio Management 59

Portfolio Management Budgeting Economics Portfolio 59

Investing Caffeine

MAY 2, 2022

Peter Lynch, arguably one of the greatest all-time investors (see Inside the Brain of an Investing Geniu s ), said it best when he stated, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.”. Slome, CFA, CFP®.

Electronics 59

Electronics Economy CFP Investing 59

Brown Advisory

JUNE 24, 2019

Winter Is Coming: How to Invest in Late-Cycle Credit ajackson Mon, 06/24/2019 - 09:42 Anyone who has read or watched “Game of Thrones” over the years is familiar with the phrase, “Winter Is Coming.” That metaphor is particularly fitting for economic and credit cycles. away from a company’s equity and towards its debt obligations.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Valuation Portfolio 52

Brown Advisory

JUNE 24, 2019

Winter Is Coming: How to Invest in Late-Cycle Credit. That metaphor is particularly fitting for economic and credit cycles. Many market observers fear that a turn in credit markets is coming, and are fleeing away from credit risk and toward cash and other safer investments. Mon, 06/24/2019 - 09:42.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Valuation Portfolio 52