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At this rate, home sales will likely continue to slow and residential investment could turn out to be a drag on Q3 economic growth. Outside of the pandemic, the rate of sales were close to sales rates in 2007 and 2008, when the economy was in the depths of a housing crisis [Figure 3]. Regional differences are profound.
As the economy is likely downshifting, investors should take heed that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) current stance is eerily similar to early 2007. That’s not suggesting another 2008 is coming, but rather highlights how fast the economic environment can change.
Since then, value has outperformed growth for the longest sustained period since 2003–2007. The monetary factor is the factor we are focused on, as the two periods of sustained value outperformance in the last 20 years (now, and 2003-2007) coincide with the last two periods when both market interest rates (measured by the 10-year U.S.
While these efforts are valuable – they may eventually lead to well-defined ESG factors that resonate with economic principles – it is easy to forget that they cannot prove whether "ESG investing" can be a source of market-independent returns, or alpha. Resource and Energy Economics 41:103-121. Journal of Financial Economics.
While these efforts are valuable – they may eventually lead to well-defined ESG factors that resonate with economic principles – it is easy to forget that they cannot prove whether "ESG investing" can be a source of market-independent returns, or alpha. Resource and Energy Economics 41:103-121. Journal of Financial Economics.
You don’t go for a doctorate in economics. And so that’s what had me pivot back in 2007 to the first market neutral hedge fund that I worked at. So I went straight to the buy side at that point. So 00:06:48 [Speaker Changed] No MBA no mba. And so that was very appealing to me. So you run a long short portfolio.
And so the idea is that, what I’ve heard is like, hey, we’re going into a recession or a weak economic period so therefore everybody’s going to go into work four and a half days a week because they want face time with their boss. And you definitely have some industries or some companies that want five days a week right now.
And I’m sitting there like, man, I’m glad I’m not licensed yet, because, you know, the last thing I wanna do is, you know, get booted outta the business before I even start. So I’m like, lemme get to somewhere more stable big mother Merrill in 2007. You joined Merrill in March of 2007, right?
Would you license these models to me? And there was one conversation very early in my career, this was actually 2007, where I was interviewing with an asset manager and I pre-meeting, asked them what they thought of the market. I think ity economics would argue you have to protect your capital to survive. Oh yeah, for sure.
In 2007, firms extracted — the private equity firms extracted $20 billion from companies in the form of dividend recapitalizations. Talk to people who try and get licensed to do insurance things, or if there’s a failure to pay out a policy in the litigation that follows. But so you had these dividend recaps. RITHOLTZ: Wow.
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