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My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Never Had a Chance Against Hard Math of the Market : In years like this one, when just a few big companies outperform, it’s hard to assemble a winning portfolio. The leading economic indicators show the U.S. 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis 7. 1987 Crash 3.
The federal funds rate hasn’t been this high since 2007 when it peaked at 5.25%. Again just using simple math, this presumes the par value will roll over each month and reinvest at the same rate to get to the annual yield. This has been the faster pace of rate hikes since the 1980-1981 cycle. 467% a month.
ANAT ADMATI, PROFESSOR OF FIANCE AND ECONOMICS, STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS: So, my journey starts where I took a lot of math. I was good in math and I love the math. So, I was kind of, in my romantic mind when I was in my early 20s, I was going to take but not give back to math, that kind of thing.
And so, coming out of school, I studied Economics and Spanish Literature, and I applied to a — a program that actually targeted Liberal Arts majors. I — I loved math, but really, I was going to go down that literature route more than anything else and — and study Spanish literature. And so, 2007, I came over to Citi.
I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. 00:21:26 [Speaker Changed] In isolation quality on average gives you downside protection, certainly did in 2007, eight for example. Learn math, learn history.
Which has in turn triggered the more skittish stock investors to run for the exits and completely change their view of our economic future, flooding the financial news with red ink and scary headlines. Now that we’ve covered the background, we can get into some better news: This is all a normal, healthy part of the economic cycle.
The New Normal It is difficult for investors and individuals alike not to have been directly impacted by the rapid rise in inflation in 2021 and 2022, the succeeding interest rate hikes by global central banks and the ensuing effects these economic events have had on financial markets, including the mortgage market.
A bachelor’s in economics from Northwestern and then an MBA from University of Chicago. And so I kind of leveraged that when I went to Morningstar because they’re very focused on quality, the whole concept of economic moats, but also about buying companies when they’re trading at a discount to intrinsic value.
SEIDES: John Yeah, I said back then, the bet started in 2007 and I say today, being in the market and investing in hedge funds is completely apples and oranges. This is the summer of 2007. RITHOLTZ: 2007. So back in 2007. SEIDES: Yeah, I wouldn’t measure it in terms of economic returns. SEIDES: Yeah.
A degree in mathematics from Oxford, a doctorate in mathematical epidemiology and economics from Cambridge. So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math. You know, pure math can be very theoretical and detached from the real world, and it’s getting worse. You joined in 2007, what led you there?
Long Now Foundation ) The hardest-working font in Manhattan : In 2007, on my first trip to New York City, I grabbed a brand-new DSLR camera and photographed all the fonts I was supposed to love. Or why we need less math in music theory. ( Tablet ) see also Welcome to the New Military-Industrial Complex. That would be absurd, no?
Metro station during rush hour in 2007, playing some of the masterworks of the classical repertoire on a 1713 Stradivarius for which he is reported to have paid $3.5 Or perhaps it simply doesn’t fit with our view of the world (or the economic cycle, or the markets, or politics, or, or, or). Or maybe it’s hard to see.
So in this, in this context of, of a mortgage now being clear to everyone that this default risk is present, it’s real, and it’s hard to price because following the borrower’s economic profile, there, there are defaults that are related to just life events, but there’s also defaults related to a macroeconomic event.
And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. You learn the math that can help you with, with market making operations. There’s very few, I would argue probably no consistent predictors of, of any sort of economic or market cyclicality. And I just caught the bug.
There are a lot of economic problems that we'll face in the coming years. The erosion of that bargaining power is one of the biggest economic stories of the past four decades, yet it’s less about supply and demand than about institutions and politics." Unfortunately, there are no easy solutions. Which leads us to share repurchases.
I had just gotten married in the fall of 2007. So here’s the math, Barry. If you have seven $50 incremental year, then every 10 year old in America, when they enter into the fifth or sixth grade and the teacher says, Hey, today we’re gonna talk about math or compounding or stocks or capitalism, they’ll say, open up.
In 2007, firms extracted — the private equity firms extracted $20 billion from companies in the form of dividend recapitalizations. I think in 2007, we had 24 square feet per capita versus Europe, which was like 14, and Japan, which was like 9. MORGENSON: And it was, so Steve was a candidate that had economic ideas, okay?
Morgan Stanley’s Chief Economic Strategist blew her call , too. The most bullish call in Sam Ro’s compilation was 5,500, up nearly 20 percent, by Capital Economics. The consensus on Wall Street was that interest rates had peaked for the economic cycle. That’s not bad, still well short of actual returns.
in Economics from Chicago and MBA from Stanford. So, I did the math, 20 million times a hundred. So, let me just repeat the math. And so, again, I went through this simple math. Even if you read both of Browder’s books, you will find something to be amazed at. With no further ado, my conversation with Bill Browder.
Barry Ritholtz : This week on the podcast, another extra special guest, Peter Goodman, is the award-winning investigative reporter and economics correspondent for the New York Times, his latest book, how the World Ran Out Of Everything Inside The Global Supply Chain. And I was ostensibly the economic writer. I do the math.
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