Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2024

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 YoY in September.

Numbers 306

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 306

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 6, 2023

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 119,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 million from 4.22

Numbers 312

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 312

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8 YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8%

Numbers 277

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 277

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down by 101,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million from 4.07 million from 4.07

Retail 333

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 333

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 8, 2023

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was at expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 295,000 to 4.0

Retail 317

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 317

The Big Picture

JANUARY 23, 2023

Unemployment is low, job openings are still high, and what looks salaries are still rising. ~~~ I have a very vivid recollection of massive firings during the 2007-09 financial crisis. I wanted to drop a quick note about the endless spate of layoff announcements — and why you should (mostly) ignore them. At least, not yet.

Numbers 325

Numbers Economics Planning Investing 325

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 71,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 YoY in December.

Retail 302

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 302

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When I put together my list of what was to blame for inflation , corporate profit-seeking was number (13 of 15). price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019. Traditional economic consensus used to be inflation occurred when too many dollars chased too few goods.

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. In fact, it felt horrible.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Calculated Risk

JULY 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the June employment report was above expectations, however April and May payrolls were revised down by 111,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 million, changed little in June. million from 4.42

Numbers 211

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 211

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 2, 2024

The headline jobs number in the January employment report was well above expectations, and November and December payrolls were revised up by 126,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " In January, the number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 Including revisions: The 3.06

Numbers 219

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 219

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

How should investors view the relationship between trade policy and inflation in the current economic environment? Gwinn Professor of Economics Masters in Business (coming soon) ~~~ Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here , and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts , YouTube , Spotify , and Bloomberg. I think number one.

Economy 162

Economy Economics Food Banking 162

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II. The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust / financial crisis), and in March 2020 (pandemic). The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust / financial crisis), and in March 2020 (pandemic). 2) Significant policy error.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Calculated Risk

MARCH 8, 2024

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, changed little in February.

Numbers 173

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 173

The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

Schroders ) • The Exact Age When You Make Your Best Financial Decisions There’s a magic number for when your expertise and cognitive powers align. The leading economic indicators show the U.S. 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis 7. Savings rates have rocketed and UK savers can earn over 5% on deposits. With the 10 year at 4.2%

Insurance 130

Insurance Math Economics Economy 130

Fortune Financial

OCTOBER 14, 2024

It has been my experience when reviewing portfolios that diversification is typically expressed simply as a number of various stocks owned, or owning a handful of asset classes, usually stocks of various sizes and geographies, and bonds of varying maturities.

Asset Allocation 131

Asset Allocation Government Portfolio Financial Advisor 131

The Big Picture

MARCH 25, 2025

And you had the great insight and business acumen to tap out of Bear Stearns in 2007 with all of those options that you had and exercise the options, sell them and launch your shortness, the asset management. So, the reason I am an economics, I have a degree in economics. The numbers are pretty bad. And they dismissed me.

Management 147

Management Numbers Investing Investments 147

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 23, 2024

If they are cutting due to a panic (think March 2020) or due to a recession (like in 2001 or 2007) potential trouble could indeed be lurking. Yes, 2001 and 2007 are in there, as you’ve probably heard many times the past week if you’ve watched financial media at all. First things first, why are they cutting? on average.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 96

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 13, 2022

But make no mistake: These are robust numbers, and the big picture is that 3.8 The highest it got to during the 2003–2007 expansion was 80.3%. Reach out to your advisor if you’d like to discuss what current economic conditions might mean for your unique situation. million jobs were created over the first nine months of 2022.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Insurance Economy 98

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

And so, coming out of school, I studied Economics and Spanish Literature, and I applied to a — a program that actually targeted Liberal Arts majors. I wasn’t that typical person that did a number of, you know, internships during the summer, had that …. And so, 2007, I came over to Citi. It was at Bank One, at the time.

Clients 299

Clients Wealth Management Banking Investing 299

Validea

FEBRUARY 17, 2023

Wall Streeters give a lot of credence to economic forecasts at the start of every year, as corporations project demand and craft their budgets and money managers plan out their strategies for the next year. for 2020 while the real number was -2.8%. Some years saw a bigger discrepancy; in 2019, the median prediction was 1.8%

Portfolio Management 59

Portfolio Management Budgeting Economics Portfolio 59

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 19, 2023

Since 1995, there are four rather distinct periods during which forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500 Index declined, tied to a specific event and/or economic downturn. Further, stock markets tend historically to move in advance of changes in economic activity or earnings trajectory, not in response to those changes.

Clients 98

Clients Economy Economics Marketing 98

Zoe Financial

OCTOBER 9, 2023

to 4.79, which is a yield level we had not seen since 2007. Economic data we can point to this: September employment data came out and payroll gains came in at 336,000. Economic Snapsot: Average hourly earnings came in at 4.15 Economic Snapsot: Average hourly earnings came in at 4.15 It was up 0.2% year-over-year growth.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Financial Advisor Economics 52

MazumaBusinessAccounting

OCTOBER 15, 2021

When the financial crisis hit in 2007, Claudia McKinney had no way of knowing it would mark the start of her new career. Nothing good—in her own family or across the nation—seemed to be coming from the economic slump. Don’t let the number of likes or an Instagram feed determine the worth of what you are doing.”

Taxes 98

Taxes Accounting Media Numbers 98

James Hendries

JUNE 20, 2023

As the economy is likely downshifting, investors should take heed that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) current stance is eerily similar to early 2007. That’s not suggesting another 2008 is coming, but rather highlights how fast the economic environment can change.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Communication 52

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

The third quarter’s blockbuster productivity data follows a hot number from the prior quarter, when productivity rose 3.5% (annualized). Economic output regained its pre-pandemic level by the first quarter of 2021, with 8 million fewer workers, which translated to higher productivity per worker. What About Artificial intelligence (AI)?

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Startup 96

Carson Wealth

MARCH 27, 2023

There are certainly more questions than answers right now, and yes, the odds of a recession have increased as banks will tighten lending, which could lead to an economic slowdown. Still, economic data is improving. Recent sentiment polls show a high number of bears while worries about the economy and earnings continue to expand.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Banking Economics 52

Fortune Financial

AUGUST 16, 2021

Here is why I favor sector-neutral positioning: I would argue that if you are deviating from the index by making active bets with your portfolio, and if you are subject to benchmarking, it makes sense to limit the number of things you have to “get right” in order to perform favorably relative to the benchmark.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Communication Numbers Financial Advisor 52

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 22, 2024

While new highs were set before bear markets in 1987, 2000, 2007, and 2020 in recent memory, the market has also made spectacular gains following new highs. We believe the first interest rate cut may come in May, unless inflation data over the next six weeks surprises to the downside or we get terrible payroll numbers.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Portfolio 97

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 9, 2024

The good news is that the preponderance of economic data clearly tells us we’re not in a recession right now. from 2005-2007. It’s correctly indicated every recession since 1970. The bad news is that the Sahm Rule triggered in July and remains triggered in August. It’s unclear why employers have stopped hiring as much as they have.

Marketing 65

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 65

Carson Wealth

MAY 22, 2023

Economic data continues to come in strong, including for retail sales and vehicle production. Housing starts and permits data are turning around as builders become more confident about the economic outlook. Housing may no longer be a drag on economic growth the rest of this year. The housing market is showing signs of recovery.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 3, 2024

Heather comes from with a fascinating background, having previously been in a number of other places, most notably Morningstar, and, and she has a very specific approach to investment management and thinking about stock selection. They do a number of things at Diamond Hill that many other investment shops don’t.

Investing 147

Investing Investments Management Valuation 147

The Big Picture

AUGUST 8, 2022

ANAT ADMATI, PROFESSOR OF FIANCE AND ECONOMICS, STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS: So, my journey starts where I took a lot of math. ADMATI: And I had never taken an economics course before that. But when I got to Yale, my advisor said, why don’t u take microeconomics and take mathematical economics and take some economics.

Banking 204

Banking Government Insurance Taxes 204

The Better Letter

APRIL 6, 2023

Too many Americans face job uncertainty, problematic debt, and real economic, familial, or health-related hardship. percentage points, a low not seen since October 2007. Steve Sandusky makes a terrific point in his excellent Good to Know newsletter. “But let’s face reality. Treasury notes – sits around 1.59

Retirement Planning 102

Retirement Planning Retirement Planning Financial Planning 102

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 31, 2023

And now we have a number of different hedge funds, some we have in the macro, we have multi-Strat, we have point hedge funds with in technology in the healthcare field. Do do we care about round numbers like a hundred million or 500 million in sales? And so we’ve built out over $20 billion hedge fund, liquid alt business.

Management 162

Management Investing Investments Portfolio 162

The Big Picture

JULY 11, 2023

” Who are the number one users of TurboTax? And you see that in the numbers, right? You have half the number of public companies that you had in 2000. India seems to be like a perennial next economic powerhouse after China and it just always seems to be not catching that next bid. I don’t want to deal with it.

Management 222

Management Investing Investments Assets 222

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 17, 2023

A degree in mathematics from Oxford, a doctorate in mathematical epidemiology and economics from Cambridge. Graham Foster] : 00:02:54 That was a number, that was number theory, pure number theory. And whether it’s all numbers or even numbers. [Barry Ritholtz] : So you have a fascinating background.

Investing 130

Investing Investments Clients Numbers 130