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How Many Bear Markets Have You Lived Through?

The Big Picture

The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. My economic future was uncertain, but I felt confident I could make a go of it. My portfolio was tiny; I had no 401k, and my wife’s 403(b), with less than a decade’s worth of contributions, was barely 5-figures.

Marketing 336
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Observations to Start 2023

The Big Picture

What does this rock traversing through the vast emptiness of space have to do with economic expansion, corporate revenues & profits, inflation, or interest rates? The rally from those lows were close to a market double by the time we saw the next peak in October 2007. It takes the Earth 365 days, 6 hours, 9 minutes, and 9.76

Economy 328
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What Else Might be Driving Sentiment?

The Big Picture

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. This has enormous ramifications for everything from our portfolios, policies and politics… See also , Failures’ Fallout (Mehlman, August 21, 2021) Teens Spend Average of 4.8

Media 351
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At the Money: Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President on Tariffs, Inflation and Monetary Policy

The Big Picture

How should investors view the relationship between trade policy and inflation in the current economic environment? Gwinn Professor of Economics Masters in Business (coming soon) ~~~ Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here , and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts , YouTube , Spotify , and Bloomberg. What was it about?

Economy 162
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A Few Thoughts On Diversification Strategies

Fortune Financial

It has been my experience when reviewing portfolios that diversification is typically expressed simply as a number of various stocks owned, or owning a handful of asset classes, usually stocks of various sizes and geographies, and bonds of varying maturities.

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10 Tuesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Never Had a Chance Against Hard Math of the Market : In years like this one, when just a few big companies outperform, it’s hard to assemble a winning portfolio. The leading economic indicators show the U.S. 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis 7. 1987 Crash 3.

Insurance 130
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Market Commentary: Tariffs Have Increased Market Uncertainty, but Job Growth Remains Solid

Carson Wealth

Our basic conclusion was that while we did see an increase in economic risks, it did not change our baseline view. Economic data has been coming in on the softer side (but not recessionary), and the February payroll data confirm the slowdown. Not what you want to see if youre looking for an acceleration in economic growth.