The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019. Generally speaking, high-profit margins are not a sign of an economy that is overheating. a pronounced acceleration over the 1.8% Rather, it reflects management behaving opportunistically given the circumstances (that is their job).

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

Holding onto expectations of major shifts in key drivers of the markets and the economy – merely due to the changing of the calendar – is a carryover from the days when the calendar mattered much more. The rally from those lows were close to a market double by the time we saw the next peak in October 2007. Alas, utterly nothing.

Economy 328

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. 18, 2023) The Annoyance Economy : Data alone don’t capture how frustrating and stressful it is to be a consumer right now. 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis 7. Heart disease is near the very bottom of coverage.

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

Federal Reserve : While a recession is possible in 2024, it mostly depends upon how long the FOMC keeps rates tighter (higher) than is appropriate for the economy. in November – but as I have been warning since 2007, we measure this incorrectly using a poor model of housing prices called “Owners Equivalent Rent.”

Economy 331

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 331

The Big Picture

MAY 16, 2023

These urban centers have become a class of their own — “superstar cities” — with outsized impact on the American economy fueled by the clustering of workers with degrees. ( PC Magazine ) • This New Airline Is Raising the Bar, From First Class to Economy : Starlux has officially begun flying in the US. Let’s hope we’re ready. (

Economy 263

Economy Economics Education Government 263

The Big Picture

JULY 12, 2023

They also offer a suite of premium analytic mapping tools that cover: Over/Under Valued %, Value/Income Ratio, House Payment as % of Median Income, % Crash from 2007-2012, Shadow Inventory %, Cap Rate, Buy vs Rent Calculator %, Rent as a % of Income. September 1, 2022) The Post-Normal Economy (January 7, 2022) What Recession?

Sales 245

Sales Taxes Economy Marketing 245

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 11, 2024

wsj.com) Uranium prices are at their highest level since 2007. ft.com) Economy Weekly initial unemployment claims aren't budging. Markets Microsoft ($MSFT) has nearly overtaken Apple ($AAPL) as the market cap leader. semafor.com) Crypto How to choose among the many spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Financial Advising 163

Financial Advising Media Taxes Economy 163

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust), and in March 2020 (pandemic). I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.

Economy 111

Economy Sales Economics Investing 111

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. 2020 : Pandemic crash of 34%, fastest top fall (but fastest recovery) 2022 : Stocks & bonds both down double digits since 1981 All of these meet the unofficial definition of a bear of a 20% move off of the peak.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

How much will the economy grow in 2024? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2023, even though some key indicators suggested a possible recession, the FOMC was forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts were forecasting an economic recession. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 80

Economy Sales Economics Investing 80

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 25, 2022

” There are some technical explanations, but before we get there, a quick reminder as to how we got here: The global pandemic forced governments around the world to shut their economies down; everything was closed, from schools to businesses, restaurants, entertainment venues, retail stores, and offices. October 7, 2022).

Government 290

Government Assets Retail Manufacturing 290

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 26, 2022

There is a rosy projection for the US economy. Meltdown of 2007-09 fostered less risky tactics; not as much debt. The result has been a chaotic, unsteady Britain, battling social malaise and political upheaval in the aftermath of the pandemic amid an inflation crisis sweeping the global economy. ( Bloomberg ). Bloomberg ).

Banking 130

Banking Economy Economics Retail 130

The Big Picture

MAY 17, 2023

Treasury : How a small-town auto mechanic peddling a green-energy breakthrough pulled off a massive scam ( The Atlantic ) • The case for financial literacy education : The damage wrought by a lack of financial literacy extends beyond the individual — to companies and even to the economy. That’s not a coincidence.

Education 147

Education Economy Clients Planning 147

The Big Picture

MAY 12, 2023

The post-pandemic economy differs significantly from the 2010s. ( He founded Wall Strip (sold to CBS in 2007), co-founded StockTwits (which pioneered the ‘cashtag’ e.g., $AAPL), and was the first investor in Robin Hood. The Big Picture ) • Who’s Not Sweating the Debt Ceiling? Social Leverage recently launched its 4th fund.

Economics 147

Economics Economy Banking Accounting 147

Advisor Perspectives

AUGUST 22, 2023

The US bond-market selloff resumed Monday, driving 10-year yields to a 16-year high, as the persistently resilient economy has investors positioning for interest rates to remain elevated even after the Federal Reserve winds up its hikes.

Economy 52

Economy Marketing Marketing 52

Nationwide Financial

MARCH 8, 2023

For example, the six-month Treasury bill yields around 5.12% as of this writing – the highest level since 2007. With inflation becoming sticky, the Federal Reserve may need to slow the economy by maintaining interest rates at “higher for longer” levels.

Assets 111

Assets Financial Planning Economy Investments 111

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 16, 2024

The bottom line is if the economy was truly about to fall apart like so many economists keep telling us, we’d expect to see more weakness in high-yield bonds right here. Instead they are making more than two-year highs, yet another sign the economy is on firm footing despite what the nightly news tells you.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 96

Advisor Perspectives

SEPTEMBER 30, 2023

economy has been surprisingly resilient. Bond yields continue to rise, with long-term Treasuries at their highest level since October 2007. Despite the Fed’s aggressive monetary tightening and the regional banking crisis earlier this year, the U.S.

Economy 40

Economy Banking 40

Advisor Perspectives

SEPTEMBER 26, 2024

Never mind the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-08; mistrust of the markets dates back to at least 1929, if not the Dutch East India collapse of 1769.

Economy 64

Economy Marketing Marketing 64

The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

economy is doing well, why do so many Americans say it’s terrible? economy is performing well, but most Americans still believe economic conditions are extremely poor — as if the country was mired in a deep recession. 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis 7. But if you’re in need of credit, current rates are a curse.

Insurance 130

Insurance Math Economics Economy 130

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 23, 2024

If they are cutting due to a panic (think March 2020) or due to a recession (like in 2001 or 2007) potential trouble could indeed be lurking. Yes, 2001 and 2007 are in there, as you’ve probably heard many times the past week if you’ve watched financial media at all. All this is very positive for the economy. on average.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 96

MarketWatch

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

The 10-year BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rate was at 3.921% Monday, while the 2-year BX:TMUBMUSD02Y was at 4.791%, near the highest since 2007. Investors attributed the slight bounce in stocks on Monday to an easing of Treasury bond yields.

Economy 75

Economy Marketing Marketing 75

Discipline Funds

MAY 23, 2023

Now, I want to be careful here because I could have said the exact same thing in 2007, but I do believe this time is different. And the “when” in this equation is a long drawn out process mainly because housing is such a slow moving part of the economy. It’s not a matter of if in my view, but when.

Economy 102

Economy Banking Sales Marketing 102

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust / financial crisis), and in March 2020 (pandemic).

Sales 145

Sales Economy Banking Economics 145

Advisor Perspectives

JANUARY 4, 2024

Are they good news for the economy as borrowers catch a break, or a sign of impending recession as they were in 2001 and 2007? The key economic question for 2024 is how to think about the interest rate cuts we’re likely to get from the Federal Reserve.

Economics 52

Economics Economy 52

Carson Wealth

MARCH 11, 2024

The bottom line is the economy is strong because the labor market is strong. The S&P 500 fell an eventual 57% from its October 2007 peak before bottoming on March 9, 2009, and finally ending the global financial crisis (GFC) bear market. The global economy was in shambles, and people were losing their jobs all around.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Retirement 97

Advisor Perspectives

OCTOBER 6, 2023

We believe the US economy is late in the credit cycle as US Treasury bond yields move to highs not seen since 2007.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Economy 52

Advisor Perspectives

OCTOBER 5, 2023

The Federal Reserve may be putting its hoped-for soft landing of the economy at risk by tacitly accepting a run-up in long-term interest rates to the highest levels since 2007.

Economy 52

Economy 52

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 13, 2022

Even if the economy created zero jobs over the next year, 2022 would be the 9 th best year for job creation since 1940. The highest it got to during the 2003–2007 expansion was 80.3%. When times are good and the economy is expanding, firms hire temps to ramp up quickly. Initial unemployment benefit claims are near record lows.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Insurance Economy 98

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 25, 2023

The Fed made a big shift in its projections and is now much more bullish on the economy. Expectations for a stronger economy also mean the Fed is projecting fewer rate cuts next year. Two: Fed members are buying that the economy is strong. That is a huge shift and an acknowledgement that the economy is strong.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 96

Validea

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

Between the 1970s and 2007, value investing—where investors identify stocks that are trading below their intrinsic value—reigned supreme for two generations of investors. Many investors hopped on his bandwagon and received outstanding returns for decades, until the financial crisis in 2007, the article relates.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Valuation Economy 52

Nationwide Financial

OCTOBER 12, 2022

The previous bear market occurred in 2007-09, during the Global Financial Crisis. For example, consumers purchase necessities such as food and personal care items no matter what’s going on in the economy. The average bear market lasts 9.6 months, according to Ned Davis Research. What causes a bear market?

Investing 105

Investing Investments Risk Tolerance Marketing 105

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 22, 2024

For a broad view of our expectations for the economy, stocks, and bonds in 2024, download our 2024 Market Outlook. That bear eventually ended in October 2022, and since then stocks have defied many experts, who continually (and incorrectly) touted a weakening economy, tapped-out consumer, and many other reasons to doubt the new bull market.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Portfolio 97

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

At Citi, in 2007, fantastic timing, you take over as Head of Structured Solutions. And so, 2007, I came over to Citi. And when you think about market timing was 2007 the best time to — to make a move, but it ended up being a perfect time actually long-term for — for my career. BITTERLY MICHELL: Always risk.

Clients 299

Clients Wealth Management Banking Investing 299

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

ECONOMY The economy saw blockbuster productivity growth in the third quarter. ECONOMY: PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH COULD BE A GAME CHANGER Lost in all the consternation over a weak payroll report this month was robust productivity data, which was released earlier. But this was not because the productive capacity of the economy expanded.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Startup 96

James Hendries

AUGUST 23, 2022

Given the lag between Federal Reserve (Fed) policy and the real economy, we have not likely seen the bottom in the housing market. Outside of the pandemic, the rate of sales were close to sales rates in 2007 and 2008, when the economy was in the depths of a housing crisis [Figure 3]. Regional differences are profound.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Sales Economy 98

Truemind Capital

JANUARY 19, 2024

Thus what happens in the USA and other developed economies has a significant impact on the Indian economy as well. The subprime bubble crash in 2007-08 was confined to developed economies, then also the Indian stock market crashed by 65% from the peak. A global liquidity glut has the opposite impact on the stock markets.

Economy 52

Economy Investments Investing Economics 52