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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023.

Economy 298
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Question #1 for 2023: How much will the economy grow in 2023? Will there be a recession in 2023?

Calculated Risk

1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust), and in March 2020 (pandemic). Residential investment has also peaked. Q4-over-Q4 in 2023.

Economy 278
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Question #1 for 2024: How much will the economy grow in 2024? Will there be a recession in 2024?

Calculated Risk

How much will the economy grow in 2024? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2023, even though some key indicators suggested a possible recession, the FOMC was forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts were forecasting an economic recession. The FOMC is expecting growth of 1.2%

Economy 200
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Farewell, TINA

The Big Picture

However, they are significant — and rising rates this year have been a headwind for both equities and the economy. Alas, today’s inflation is 1) not like that of the 1970s; 2) the economy is nothing like the 1980s double-dip recession; and 3) Jerome Powell is no Paul Volcker. 1 and 2 are good, I suspect 3 is problematic.

Economy 312
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Recession Watch Update

Calculated Risk

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust / financial crisis), and in March 2020 (pandemic).

Sales 363
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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

( The Guardian ) • Seaflooding: The Surprising Solution to Mitigate Climate Change, Create More Life, and Grow the Economy : Do You Like the Mediterranean Today? What if I told you there was a way to mitigate that, while creating new habitats and more life, growing the economy, and making money along the way?

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Observations to Start 2023

The Big Picture

Let’s jump into the new year with some fresh observations, some of which are quite surprising: • Astronomical Measures of Time Are Unrelated to Investing : 2023 – a new year! The rally from those lows were close to a market double by the time we saw the next peak in October 2007. Welcome to 2023! Alas, utterly nothing.

Economy 328