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Labor or Capital Driven Inflation?

The Big Picture

When I put together my list of what was to blame for inflation , corporate profit-seeking was number (13 of 15). price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019. Generally speaking, high-profit margins are not a sign of an economy that is overheating. That was June; we now have a lot more data.

Economics 336
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How Many Bear Markets Have You Lived Through?

The Big Picture

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. 2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked.

Marketing 336
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10 Tuesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

Schroders ) • The Exact Age When You Make Your Best Financial Decisions There’s a magic number for when your expertise and cognitive powers align. economy is doing well, why do so many Americans say it’s terrible? 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis 7. Savings rates have rocketed and UK savers can earn over 5% on deposits.

Insurance 130
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Market Commentary: S&P 500 Makes New All-Time High as Fed Goes Big

Carson Wealth

If they are cutting due to a panic (think March 2020) or due to a recession (like in 2001 or 2007) potential trouble could indeed be lurking. Yes, 2001 and 2007 are in there, as you’ve probably heard many times the past week if you’ve watched financial media at all. All this is very positive for the economy. on average.

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Recession Watch Update

Calculated Risk

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust / financial crisis), and in March 2020 (pandemic).

Sales 145
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Transcript: Kristen Bitterly Michell

The Big Picture

I wasn’t that typical person that did a number of, you know, internships during the summer, had that …. At Citi, in 2007, fantastic timing, you take over as Head of Structured Solutions. And so, 2007, I came over to Citi. BITTERLY MICHELL: … obviously, the United States, the global economy. I was econ and kind of geeky.

Clients 299
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5 Charts Showing the Strength of the Labor Market

Carson Wealth

But make no mistake: These are robust numbers, and the big picture is that 3.8 Even if the economy created zero jobs over the next year, 2022 would be the 9 th best year for job creation since 1940. The highest it got to during the 2003–2007 expansion was 80.3%. million jobs were created over the first nine months of 2022.