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Observations to Start 2023

The Big Picture

Holding onto expectations of major shifts in key drivers of the markets and the economy – merely due to the changing of the calendar – is a carryover from the days when the calendar mattered much more. The rally from those lows were close to a market double by the time we saw the next peak in October 2007. Alas, utterly nothing.

Economy 328
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How Many Bear Markets Have You Lived Through?

The Big Picture

2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. My portfolio was tiny; I had no 401k, and my wife’s 403(b), with less than a decade’s worth of contributions, was barely 5-figures.

Marketing 336
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What Else Might be Driving Sentiment?

The Big Picture

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis 7. This quarter, it was Sentiment.

Media 351
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At the Money: Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President on Tariffs, Inflation and Monetary Policy

The Big Picture

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Austin Goolsbee. Look, this, this is a t tangled, uh, this is a tangled web, uh, that is critically important to, to the economy. Um, and so I, I think in a higher rate environment, if you’re trying to cool the economy, this is always true.

Economy 162
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Market Commentary: Tariffs Have Increased Market Uncertainty, but Job Growth Remains Solid

Carson Wealth

The worries are growing, from a potentially slowing economy, to a growing and more aggressive trade war, to worries over Washington policy. Then five years ago we shut down our economy during a once-a-century pandemic. The economy created 151,000 jobs in February, more or less consistent with expectations.

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Resilience is Core to Sustainable Portfolio Construction

Brown Advisory

Resilience is Core to Sustainable Portfolio Construction. While the old adage “only time will tell” generally refers to a future outcome, it is apropos of our belief that a truly sustainable portfolio must consist of businesses that have proven to be resilient under a variety of macroeconomic circumstances. Wed, 09/21/2022 - 10:50.

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10 Tuesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Never Had a Chance Against Hard Math of the Market : In years like this one, when just a few big companies outperform, it’s hard to assemble a winning portfolio. economy is doing well, why do so many Americans say it’s terrible? 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis 7.

Insurance 130