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emphasis added) The red flags were there for anyone who could put their greed aside and simply focus on the math. August 10, 2007) Source : An alleged $500 million Ponzi scheme preyed on Mormons. It ended with FBI gunfire. By Lizzie Johnson Washington Post, February 1, 2023 _ 1.
The dotcom top, the double bottom in Oct 02-March 03; the highs in 2007, the lows 2009. 24, 2023 _ 1: In particular, why average outperforms over the long run; Sommers credits not making errors (via Charlie Ellis’ “Winning the Loser’s Game”) but the nuance and math are fascinating. By Jeff Sommer New York Times, Nov.
My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Never Had a Chance Against Hard Math of the Market : In years like this one, when just a few big companies outperform, it’s hard to assemble a winning portfolio. 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis 7. Businessweek ) but see With cash earning 5%, why risk money on the stock market?
The federal funds rate hasn’t been this high since 2007 when it peaked at 5.25%. Again just using simple math, this presumes the par value will roll over each month and reinvest at the same rate to get to the annual yield. This has been the faster pace of rate hikes since the 1980-1981 cycle. 467% a month.
That is difficult to pull off but if you do the math on that it shows long term outperformance. Remember, the peak in the S&P 500 in October, 2007 was 1565. He makes a good point about not relying solely on math to assess markets and portfolio construction, that the psychology of markets is important too.
Both 2021 and 2022 each had 14 upsets; there were 10 upsets in 2023 and nine in 2024, if only three in 2007. Duke math professor Jonathan Mattingly claimed the average college basketball fan has a far better chance of achieving bracket perfection than one in 9.2 Between 1985 and 2024, there were 8.5 upsets per tournament (4.7
I — I loved math, but really, I was going to go down that literature route more than anything else and — and study Spanish literature. At Citi, in 2007, fantastic timing, you take over as Head of Structured Solutions. And so, 2007, I came over to Citi. RITHOLTZ: Applied Mathematics, Quants, those guys, yeah.
So I took it upon myself to go off and took a course in bond math, took another course in derivatives and realized the underlying fundamental concepts were barely, I mean, it wasn’t even high school math in most cases. I didn’t know what any of these terms meant. And then you see some surprise events.
ANAT ADMATI, PROFESSOR OF FIANCE AND ECONOMICS, STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS: So, my journey starts where I took a lot of math. I was good in math and I love the math. So, I was kind of, in my romantic mind when I was in my early 20s, I was going to take but not give back to math, that kind of thing.
As a matter of math, it cannot repeat the run from 8.5% Using Vanguard funds as proxies, VFINX for domestic equities and VGTSX for international equities, an investor who retired with $1 million on Dec 31, 2007 who immediately took out their 4% for 2008 would have had $576,000 at the end of 2008. in November.
But there’s also a lot of, like at Wittel, you know, I was at Wachtel in 2005 to 2007, so really near the peak of a big merger’s boom. So like a component of it was like the standard derivatives math, right? And so like, you know, I got there and I learned derivatives math, right? And I love that.
I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. 00:21:26 [Speaker Changed] In isolation quality on average gives you downside protection, certainly did in 2007, eight for example. Learn math, learn history.
Additionally, underbuilding in the years following the subprime mortgage and global financial crisis of 2007-2010 resulted in a systemic shortage of housing that has driven rapid appreciation in home prices and rental costs alike.
So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math. You know, pure math can be very theoretical and detached from the real world, and it’s getting worse. It’s just math stick to it over long periods of time. You joined in 2007, what led you there? It gets further and further away the D P U go.
Subscribe now Share The Better Letter Get more from Bob Seawright in the Substack app Available for iOS and Android Get the app TRIGGER WARNING: I’m going to do some sports math nerding-out this week. If that isn’t your cup of tea, I understand. This TBL is about football, but I really love to nerd-out over baseball.
It’s fun math – a 20% drop in prices means you get 25% more shares for your dollar, and a 50% drop means twice as many , or 100% more shares per dollar invested.). the current blowup) -20% so far What’s your guess? In today’s market, you are getting about 25% more shares for each dollar that you invest.
And so I think, you know, not to say you couldn’t do it when there’s zero, but I just think it’s a lot harder to make the math work. 00:47:56 [Speaker Changed] Te Tina made it very difficult to be on the short side when there was no alternative to equities, was pretty much the only place, only place you could go.
SEIDES: John Yeah, I said back then, the bet started in 2007 and I say today, being in the market and investing in hedge funds is completely apples and oranges. This is the summer of 2007. RITHOLTZ: 2007. So back in 2007. So for a taxable investor, hedge funds generally aren’t tax efficient. SEIDES: Yeah.
Long Now Foundation ) The hardest-working font in Manhattan : In 2007, on my first trip to New York City, I grabbed a brand-new DSLR camera and photographed all the fonts I was supposed to love. Or why we need less math in music theory. ( I admired American Typewriter, Akzidenz Grotesk, Helvetica, Gotham. That would be absurd, no?
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Ken Griffin’s Hand-Picked Math Prodigy Runs Market-Making Empire : Citadel Securities CEO Peng Zhao left for college at age 14, caught Griffin’s eye early in his career and built systems now mopping up market share. Social Leverage recently launched its 4th fund.
Metro station during rush hour in 2007, playing some of the masterworks of the classical repertoire on a 1713 Stradivarius for which he is reported to have paid $3.5 Moreover, “proof” in science in inductive and doesn’t have the deductive certainty that it can in math.
And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. You learn the math that can help you with, with market making operations. It’s just not smart on a math basis to do that. And I just caught the bug. Become options market makers. You learn the technology.
I had just gotten married in the fall of 2007. So here’s the math, Barry. If you have seven $50 incremental year, then every 10 year old in America, when they enter into the fifth or sixth grade and the teacher says, Hey, today we’re gonna talk about math or compounding or stocks or capitalism, they’ll say, open up.
Tech companies, the companies making the most money and conducting huge buybacks are in fact spending 18% of their revenue on R&D and Cap-ex, up from 13% in 2007. If you're curious to learn how the math behind this, read this piece from Econompic. Mary Meeker showed something similar in her latest slide deck.
In 2007, firms extracted — the private equity firms extracted $20 billion from companies in the form of dividend recapitalizations. I think in 2007, we had 24 square feet per capita versus Europe, which was like 14, and Japan, which was like 9. MORGENSON: It can be collateralized loan obligations, now it’s big private debt.
Here is Pew in 2007: “It’s not just the case that polling in the nominating contests is perilous. Pew, February 14, 2007) Pollsters: ‘Impossible’ to say why 2020 polls were wrong.(Politico, Hence their surprise by the results yesterday.1 There is a rich history that tells us a year in an election cycle is a very long time.
Over time, the home ownership rate’s grown to sort of mid sixties and bobble around it got really, really high when we were giving away mortgages in 2007. And I was always good at math and, and I had been writing code since I was in the sixth grade. Now in the US we tracked the home ownership rate. And then it came back down.
In 2007, Steve Ballmer, then the CEO of Microsoft, said , “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. In 1995, Robert Metcalfe, founder of digital electronics company 3Com, said : “I predict the internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.”
A good example of that is like you take something from a cognitive reflection testy or something — like — I’ll make it real simple so we don’t have to like do the weird math on this. MCRANEY: Maybe like 2008, 2007, around there. RITHOLTZ: Right. RITHOLTZ: Okay.
So, I did the math, 20 million times a hundred. So, let me just repeat the math. And so, again, I went through this simple math. And so, in the 23rd of December 2007, two days before Christmas, they applied for $230 million fraudulent tax refund. How many do you have in your fleet? It is $2 billion on the ship.
It’s the fall of 2007. I do the math. I’m working in the New York Bureau of the Washington Post. Wasn’t all that keen to leave. I love the Washington Post, but I thought, well, I better do this sleepy story, the national economy.
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