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When you get it wrong, it crushes your retirement plans. My own track record at making big calls is pretty damned good, but none of our clients wants me slinging around their retirement monies based on my gut instinct. The dotcom top, the double bottom in Oct 02-March 03; the highs in 2007, the lows 2009. More on this later.
My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Never Had a Chance Against Hard Math of the Market : In years like this one, when just a few big companies outperform, it’s hard to assemble a winning portfolio. If you’re depending on income to fund your retirement, 5% rates are a blessing. 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis 7.
That is difficult to pull off but if you do the math on that it shows long term outperformance. Remember, the peak in the S&P 500 in October, 2007 was 1565. He makes a good point about not relying solely on math to assess markets and portfolio construction, that the psychology of markets is important too.
There was a lot of content from various places over the weekend about whether it is time to go back into bonds, what retired investors should do for yield and even whether retirees are better off going 100% into equities. As a matter of math, it cannot repeat the run from 8.5% Barron's also noted that 60/40 was up 9.6% in November.
So I took it upon myself to go off and took a course in bond math, took another course in derivatives and realized the underlying fundamental concepts were barely, I mean, it wasn’t even high school math in most cases. I didn’t know what any of these terms meant. SALISBURY: Sure. SALISBURY: Yes. SALISBURY: Yes.
I — I loved math, but really, I was going to go down that literature route more than anything else and — and study Spanish literature. At Citi, in 2007, fantastic timing, you take over as Head of Structured Solutions. And so, 2007, I came over to Citi. RITHOLTZ: Applied Mathematics, Quants, those guys, yeah.
Even Mr. Money Mustache, as a person who retired 17 years ago, is still in this boat for the simple reason that my retirement income from dividends and hobby businesses is still greater than my annual living expenses (which still hover around $20,000 per year). 3) Okay, but I really am retired and trying to live off my investments now.
ANAT ADMATI, PROFESSOR OF FIANCE AND ECONOMICS, STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS: So, my journey starts where I took a lot of math. I was good in math and I love the math. So, I was kind of, in my romantic mind when I was in my early 20s, I was going to take but not give back to math, that kind of thing.
I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. And that a bit of that cult, Dick and Ike are both retired now. And I very much get the sense he has no interest in retiring. Learn math, learn history.
SEIDES: John Yeah, I said back then, the bet started in 2007 and I say today, being in the market and investing in hedge funds is completely apples and oranges. This is the summer of 2007. RITHOLTZ: 2007. So back in 2007. Probably the first one I’m ready to retire, which is a post-lockdown question.
Subscribe now Share The Better Letter Get more from Bob Seawright in the Substack app Available for iOS and Android Get the app TRIGGER WARNING: I’m going to do some sports math nerding-out this week. Brady is now retired as a seven-time Super Bowl champion, five-time Super Bowl MVP, 15-time Pro Bowler, and three-time NFL MVP.
And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. You learn the math that can help you with, with market making operations. It’s just not smart on a math basis to do that. And I just caught the bug. Become options market makers. You learn the technology.
The median retirement account balance of people ages 56 to 61 is just $25,000. Whatever else happened, retired policemen and firefighters and teachers would be paid. workers participate in an employer-sponsored retirement plan. ( If you're curious to learn how the math behind this, read this piece from Econompic.
In 2007, firms extracted — the private equity firms extracted $20 billion from companies in the form of dividend recapitalizations. I think in 2007, we had 24 square feet per capita versus Europe, which was like 14, and Japan, which was like 9. So corporate pensions that gave a worker a reasonable shot at a prosperous retirement.
In 2007, Steve Ballmer, then the CEO of Microsoft, said , “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. Happy Retirement, Paul! ” According to the latest available data, the average person spends about seven hours per day on screens connected to the internet. billion users.
So, I did the math, 20 million times a hundred. So, let me just repeat the math. And so, again, I went through this simple math. And so, in the 23rd of December 2007, two days before Christmas, they applied for $230 million fraudulent tax refund. How many do you have in your fleet? It is $2 billion on the ship.
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