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Farewell, TINA

The Big Picture

to 6% yield or better (according to Bankrate’s Tax Equivalent Yield Calculator ). Despite what you may have heard, the Fed isn’t the only factor driving equity markets. High-Grade Corporates are yielding over 4% (more if you go lower in quality (ill-advised) See the Moody’s Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield (AAA).

Economy 312
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Question #1 for 2023: How much will the economy grow in 2023? Will there be a recession in 2023?

Calculated Risk

The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust), and in March 2020 (pandemic). Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust. BofA is forecasting GDP will contract 0.3% I ignored that pandemic distortion. 2008 0.1% -2.5% 2009 -2.6%

Economy 278
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Mapping Changes in US Home Prices

The Big Picture

They also offer a suite of premium analytic mapping tools that cover: Over/Under Valued %, Value/Income Ratio, House Payment as % of Median Income, % Crash from 2007-2012, Shadow Inventory %, Cap Rate, Buy vs Rent Calculator %, Rent as a % of Income.

Sales 245
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The “Art” of Market Timing

The Big Picture

This is before we get to the issue of capital gains taxes, which create a hurdle of (minimum) 20% on those pesky profits just to get to breakeven. The dotcom top, the double bottom in Oct 02-March 03; the highs in 2007, the lows 2009. Let’s add some color to the discussion on timing itself and add a little nuance.1

Marketing 305
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Thursday links: capitalist discontent

Abnormal Returns

wsj.com) Uranium prices are at their highest level since 2007. theverge.com) GM ($GM) is providing incentives to make up for the loss of EV tax credits. Markets Microsoft ($MSFT) has nearly overtaken Apple ($AAPL) as the market cap leader. semafor.com) Crypto How to choose among the many spot Bitcoin ETFs.

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Question #1 for 2024: How much will the economy grow in 2024? Will there be a recession in 2024?

Calculated Risk

Recessions can be the result of exogenous events, like the pandemic or the oil shocks due to geopolitical issues in the 1970s, the bursting of speculative bubbles like in 2001 (stock) or 2007 (housing), or - most frequently - the Fed tightening monetary policy to slow inflation. I ignored that pandemic distortion. For 2023, I used a 2.6%

Economy 200
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Recession Watch Update

Calculated Risk

The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust / financial crisis), and in March 2020 (pandemic). Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust. I ignored that downturn as a pandemic distortion ( I am not a slave to any model ).

Sales 363