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The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. The key point is that, given the current economic uncertainty, there are several ways that advisors can help clients prepare for potential downturns.
In the past four quarters, economic forecasters have, on average, predicted a 42% probability of a contraction in the U.S. Kidding aside, Tim Harford reminds us that “In 2008, the consensus from forecasters was that not a single economy would fall into recession in 2009.” 40%) probability of happening.
Since 2008, the Census Bureau has included government transfers in its Supplemental Poverty Measure. Or is anything economic Phil Gramm touches simply destined to be a dumpster fire of lies, foolishness, and incompetency? ” In 2008. It is untrue. Sheer stupidity? You may remember Phil Gramm.
2020s : Remained on emergency footing post Covid, despite broad evidence of economic recovery. To sum up, the Fed was late to recognize post 9/11 the impact their ultra low rates were having; Post 2008-09 crisis, they kept rates at zero until 2015, post Covid, they kept rates at zero despite inflation and market signals.
It’s rare to see stocks as hated as they were in the middle of 2008-09, but that is a very contrarian signal. The bearish signals I am gathering for next week seem to be primarily fundamental or economic in nature… Previously : Observations to Start 2023 (January 3, 2023) Groping for a Bottom (October 14, 2022) The post Bull or Bear?
History suggests that the Fed’s recognition of key market and economic indicators also is on an excessive lag. Consider : In the 2010s, the Fed remained on emergency footing from 2008, when they took rates to 0 (zero) until December 2015 (this created lots of distortions). The result is Fed is always late to the party.
This week, we speak with New York Times Global Economic Correspondent Peter Goodman. Prior to the New York Times, Peter began his career as a freelance writer in Southeast Asia before serving as The Washington Post’s Asia Economic Correspondent and later Shanghai Bureau Chief.
Why 2023 is Not 2008 : But that is incomparable to the 2008-09 era, where every financial institution had consumed CDOs, where toxic sub-prime loans were securitized into ticking time bombs. Even in the market of good intentions, however, it’s important to provide some economic incentives to drive organizations.
Let’s look at the 2008 scenario as an example. Economic Innovation Group ). • My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • When is a Bear Market Over? Like many things in the market, there aren’t any hard and fast rules for this kind of thing, especially in real-time. How Remote Work is Shifting Population Growth Across the U.S.
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The sneaky economics of Ticketmaster : Ticketmaster’s maligned fees and customer service issues are again under the microscope. Will American music fans ever see anything better? ( The Hustle ). • What Is the Bond Market Saying About the Economy? No, but everyone is enjoying the charade.
Bitcoin mining in the crypto crash — the mining companies’ creative accounting : Bitcoin miners used to be ruthless economic agents, in it for the money. In 2008, he received the George Polk Award for financial reporting. Wall Street Journal ). Amy Castor ).
I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic. The post- 2008-09 era saw wealth inequality, already substantial in the United States, explode. I wrote a book about this).
It was the worst economic period most of us have ever lived through. The 2008 crash wiped out $11 trillion in wealth, Housing prices were down by nearly 30%. The stock market crashed almost 60%. The unemployment rate hit double-digits. The collective net worth of American households reached roughly $66 trillion by the end of 2007.
stock market has, on average, outperformed international equities over the last 15 years since emerging from the Great Recession of 2008, many investors argue that international diversification is a poor allocation of dollars that would otherwise be earning more in the U.S. Given the current (as of March 2023) economic positions for the U.S.
Following the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 a number of macro doom-and-gloomers began predicting a collapse of the U.S. It was an appealing narrative if you were someone stuck in the negative feedback loop of the biggest economic crash since the Great Depression. The Fed was “printing” trillions of dollars.
What does this rock traversing through the vast emptiness of space have to do with economic expansion, corporate revenues & profits, inflation, or interest rates? We can credit three elements for this massive outperformance: -Substantial prices resets: 57% in 2008-09 and 34% in 2020. Our planet has done this about 4.54
He serves on the advisory board of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. It was a huge price decline where syndicators got stuck, very reminiscent of the 2008-09 era for banks. Private direct non-bank lenders stepped into the void, creating both risks and opportunities. Currently, he is Vice Chairman of IBM.
The economic recovery following the Covid-induced recession in early-2020 has climbed the proverbial wall of worry. Last summer the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment hit its lowest level on record: That’s lower than it was during the 2008 financial crisis, lower than it was in the early-1.
As it turns out, there are ways investors can tell if an economic contraction is really coming. Claudia Sahm : A recession is a broad-based contraction in economic activity. The global financial crisis in 2008, that was a big, fast, deep recession. There still has been no recession. Claudia Sahm : Happy to be here.
So, whether you're interested in learning about how Lori spent a year right out of college learning SPIN sales techniques from Xerox's sales training which has shaped how she digs deeper into her clients' issues, how Lori dealt with her legal issues and moving her clients to a new RIA all while the economic crisis in 2008, or how Lori learned that (..)
Mention Animal Spirits to receive 20% off (*New YCharts users only) Listen here: On today’s show we discuss: The sudden economic stop Pure Alpha's struggles Restaurant traffic is crashing GMO says it's time to buy Bond ETFs, what the hell is going on? Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by YCharts.
The Fed failed to do that in 2002 and 2008 and before that in the Long Term Capital Management bailout. When you continually bail out financial institutions and set interest rates too low, you foster if not outright encourage speculative manias. What about the knowledge gained?
ft.com) Economy Some good economic news is currently bad news for the market (tker.co) The 2022 housing market is light years apart from 2008. (theinformation.com) The new Apple ($AAPL) Watch Ultra is a beast. theverge.com) Microsoft ($MSFT) is an investor in CloudKitchens.
Unusual Economic Indicators : You might have heard about indicators like the Big Mac Index (if you haven’t, you can read our previous article). Today, we’ll introduce you to some unusual economic indicators that might predict the economic conditions. Most Unusual Economic Indicators 1. What is it? What is the proof?
What are you getting from consuming 24/7 coverage of the world of economics, markets, and finance? January 2008). Instead of pastoral, bucolic imagery, it’s now yelling, arguing, and complaining about Big Garden repressing the landscape — a veritable MMA cage match of faux disagreements. Viewership soared… ~~~.
This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 3.7 This is below pre-recession levels and the fewest part time workers (for economic reasons) in over 20 years.
(calculatedriskblog.com) There is a big difference between today's housing market and that of 2008. awealthofcommonsense.com) Traditional economic models are all that helpful at the moment. wsj.com) Older Americans are increasingly at-risk of homelessness. wsj.com) Institutional investors don't like paying property taxes.
This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 3.9 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in December to 3.878 million from 3.688 million in November.
Articles Ultra-low interest rates make the economics of using cheap debt to buy small companies at a low valuation and selling them at a higher one look pretty attractive. By Howard Lindzon) Millennium has generated an average calendar-year return of 14% for the past 33 years, with only one loss year in 2008. (By Marc Rubins.
This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons was about unchanged at 3.7 This is below pre-recession levels and near the fewest part time workers (for economic reasons) in over 20 years.
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2024 and a few predictions: • Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2023. million to 1.5
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). And that means prices probably won’t decline sharply like in 2008 when prices fell about 12% according to the Case-Shiller National Index. I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough).
The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining the evolution in aggregate debt to income ratios and what that suggests about Americans’ ability to manage their debt obligations. Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). Here is a table of the participation rate and unemployment rate since 2008.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit the six percent mark for the first time since 2008 – rising to 6.01 percent – which is essentially double what it was a year ago,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting.
The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining credit card utilization and its relationship with delinquency. Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. The report shows total household debt increased by $184 billion (1.1%) in the first quarter of 2024, to $17.69
The yield on the two-year Treasury note fell to 4.32% from 4.63%, the biggest one-day decline since 2008 The 10-year yield fell to 3.83% from 4.15%, the biggest one-day drop since 2009. A half-point hike was expected by the Fed both before and after the CPI report, just a little more confidently now. US Dollar Index.
Over the past four weeks, money markets have added $300 billion, on par with surges in 2008 and 2020, bringing the total to a record $5.1 If market conditions were what they are now back in 2008, the equity market would have been under severe stress. Lost in the focus on global banking issues were some encouraging economic data.
The tone of economic data has shifted, with releases increasingly disappointing relative to expectations. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has fallen to -19 after being above neutral since September, though the European ESI is at the best level since mid-2021. Sales rose 6% from a year ago, which lagged the pace of inflation.
This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in October to 4.28 million, changed little in October.
This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 295,000 to 4.0 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in November to 3.99 YoY in November.
From Lance Lambert at ResiClub: Renowned housing analyst who predicted the 2008 home price crash weighs in on the current market Here is the intro: Years before the housing bubble burst in 2008, housing analyst Bill McBride began chronicling the troubles in the U.S. housing market in his blog Calculated Risk.
This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in October to 4.56 YoY in October.
Paul Singer, founder of Elliott Management and well-known for predicting the financial crisis of 2008, calls the current environment “an extraordinarily dangerous and confusing period,” in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. But for long-term prosperity in the U.S.
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