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4th Quarter 2023 Economic And Market Outlook: Labor Market, Inflation, And Geopolitics

Nerd's Eye View

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.

Economics 246
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Can Economists Predict Recessions?

The Big Picture

In the past four quarters, economic forecasters have, on average, predicted a 42% probability of a contraction in the U.S. economy in the next quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. .” 40%) probability of happening. By Jeremy Majerovitz St.

Economy 298
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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The sneaky economics of Ticketmaster : Ticketmaster’s maligned fees and customer service issues are again under the microscope. The Hustle ). • What Is the Bond Market Saying About the Economy? Will American music fans ever see anything better? ( New York Times ). • Economist ).

Math 306
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Observations to Start 2023

The Big Picture

What does this rock traversing through the vast emptiness of space have to do with economic expansion, corporate revenues & profits, inflation, or interest rates? We can credit three elements for this massive outperformance: -Substantial prices resets: 57% in 2008-09 and 34% in 2020. Alas, utterly nothing. Fiscal stimulus 2020-22.

Economy 328
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At the Money: Forecasting Recessions

The Big Picture

Bad things happen when the economy contracts. As it turns out, there are ways investors can tell if an economic contraction is really coming. Tell us what happens to the economy during a recession. Claudia Sahm : A recession is a broad-based contraction in economic activity. There still has been no recession.

Economy 298
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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023. million jobs in 2023.

Economy 119
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The Great Resignation Is Long Over

The Big Picture

I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic. This attests to the robustness of the labor economy, recession or not. By any measure, we still have an enormous number of unfilled positions.

Medicine 331